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A quantum theoretical explanation for probability judgment errors
A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction, disjunction, inverse, and conditional fallacies, as well as unpacking effects and partitioning effects. Quantum probability theory is a general and coherent theory based on a set of (von Neumann) axioms which relax some of the constraints underlying classic (Kolmogorov) probability theory. The quantum model is compared and contrasted with other competing explanations for these judgment errors including the representativeness heuristic, the averaging model, and a memory retrieval model for probability judgments. The quantum model also provides ways to extend Bayesian, fuzzy set, and fuzzy trace theories. We conclude that quantum information processing principles provide a viable and promising new way to understand human judgment and reasoning
Quantum mechanics as a theory of probability
We develop and defend the thesis that the Hilbert space formalism of quantum
mechanics is a new theory of probability. The theory, like its classical
counterpart, consists of an algebra of events, and the probability measures
defined on it. The construction proceeds in the following steps: (a) Axioms for
the algebra of events are introduced following Birkhoff and von Neumann. All
axioms, except the one that expresses the uncertainty principle, are shared
with the classical event space. The only models for the set of axioms are
lattices of subspaces of inner product spaces over a field K. (b) Another axiom
due to Soler forces K to be the field of real, or complex numbers, or the
quaternions. We suggest a probabilistic reading of Soler's axiom. (c) Gleason's
theorem fully characterizes the probability measures on the algebra of events,
so that Born's rule is derived. (d) Gleason's theorem is equivalent to the
existence of a certain finite set of rays, with a particular orthogonality
graph (Wondergraph). Consequently, all aspects of quantum probability can be
derived from rational probability assignments to finite "quantum gambles". We
apply the approach to the analysis of entanglement, Bell inequalities, and the
quantum theory of macroscopic objects. We also discuss the relation of the
present approach to quantum logic, realism and truth, and the measurement
problem.Comment: 37 pages, 3 figures. Forthcoming in a Festschrift for Jeffrey Bub,
ed. W. Demopoulos and the author, Springer (Kluwer): University of Western
Ontario Series in Philosophy of Scienc
Reasoning with random sets: An agenda for the future
In this paper, we discuss a potential agenda for future work in the theory of
random sets and belief functions, touching upon a number of focal issues: the
development of a fully-fledged theory of statistical reasoning with random
sets, including the generalisation of logistic regression and of the classical
laws of probability; the further development of the geometric approach to
uncertainty, to include general random sets, a wider range of uncertainty
measures and alternative geometric representations; the application of this new
theory to high-impact areas such as climate change, machine learning and
statistical learning theory.Comment: 94 pages, 17 figure
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