Model-Based Reinforcement Learning with Multinomial Logistic Function Approximation

We study model-based reinforcement learning (RL) for episodic Markov decision processes (MDP) whose transition probability is parametrized by an unknown transition core with features of state and action. Despite much recent progress in analyzing algorithms in the linear MDP setting, the understanding of more general transition models is very restrictive. In this paper, we establish a provably efficient RL algorithm for the MDP whose state transition is given by a multinomial logistic model. To balance the exploration-exploitation trade-off, we propose an upper confidence bound-based algorithm. We show that our proposed algorithm achieves $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(d \sqrt{H^3 T})$ regret bound where $d$ is the dimension of the transition core, $H$ is the horizon, and $T$ is the total number of steps. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first model-based RL algorithm with multinomial logistic function approximation with provable guarantees. We also comprehensively evaluate our proposed algorithm numerically and show that it consistently outperforms the existing methods, hence achieving both provable efficiency and practical superior performance.Comment: Accepted in AAAI 2023 (Main Technical Track

Quantum attacks on Bitcoin, and how to protect against them

The key cryptographic protocols used to secure the internet and financial transactions of today are all susceptible to attack by the development of a sufficiently large quantum computer. One particular area at risk are cryptocurrencies, a market currently worth over 150 billion USD. We investigate the risk of Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies, to attacks by quantum computers. We find that the proof-of-work used by Bitcoin is relatively resistant to substantial speedup by quantum computers in the next 10 years, mainly because specialized ASIC miners are extremely fast compared to the estimated clock speed of near-term quantum computers. On the other hand, the elliptic curve signature scheme used by Bitcoin is much more at risk, and could be completely broken by a quantum computer as early as 2027, by the most optimistic estimates. We analyze an alternative proof-of-work called Momentum, based on finding collisions in a hash function, that is even more resistant to speedup by a quantum computer. We also review the available post-quantum signature schemes to see which one would best meet the security and efficiency requirements of blockchain applications.Comment: 21 pages, 6 figures. For a rough update on the progress of Quantum devices and prognostications on time from now to break Digital signatures, see https://www.quantumcryptopocalypse.com/quantum-moores-law

Conservative Dual Policy Optimization for Efficient Model-Based Reinforcement Learning

Provably efficient Model-Based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL) based on optimism or posterior sampling (PSRL) is ensured to attain the global optimality asymptotically by introducing the complexity measure of the model. However, the complexity might grow exponentially for the simplest nonlinear models, where global convergence is impossible within finite iterations. When the model suffers a large generalization error, which is quantitatively measured by the model complexity, the uncertainty can be large. The sampled model that current policy is greedily optimized upon will thus be unsettled, resulting in aggressive policy updates and over-exploration. In this work, we propose Conservative Dual Policy Optimization (CDPO) that involves a Referential Update and a Conservative Update. The policy is first optimized under a reference model, which imitates the mechanism of PSRL while offering more stability. A conservative range of randomness is guaranteed by maximizing the expectation of model value. Without harmful sampling procedures, CDPO can still achieve the same regret as PSRL. More importantly, CDPO enjoys monotonic policy improvement and global optimality simultaneously. Empirical results also validate the exploration efficiency of CDPO.Comment: Published at NeurIPS 202

One Objective to Rule Them All: A Maximization Objective Fusing Estimation and Planning for Exploration

In online reinforcement learning (online RL), balancing exploration and exploitation is crucial for finding an optimal policy in a sample-efficient way. To achieve this, existing sample-efficient online RL algorithms typically consist of three components: estimation, planning, and exploration. However, in order to cope with general function approximators, most of them involve impractical algorithmic components to incentivize exploration, such as optimization within data-dependent level-sets or complicated sampling procedures. To address this challenge, we propose an easy-to-implement RL framework called \textit{Maximize to Explore} (\texttt{MEX}), which only needs to optimize \emph{unconstrainedly} a single objective that integrates the estimation and planning components while balancing exploration and exploitation automatically. Theoretically, we prove that \texttt{MEX} achieves a sublinear regret with general function approximations for Markov decision processes (MDP) and is further extendable to two-player zero-sum Markov games (MG). Meanwhile, we adapt deep RL baselines to design practical versions of \texttt{MEX}, in both model-free and model-based manners, which can outperform baselines by a stable margin in various MuJoCo environments with sparse rewards. Compared with existing sample-efficient online RL algorithms with general function approximations, \texttt{MEX} achieves similar sample efficiency while enjoying a lower computational cost and is more compatible with modern deep RL methods

Making Linear MDPs Practical via Contrastive Representation Learning

It is common to address the curse of dimensionality in Markov decision processes (MDPs) by exploiting low-rank representations. This motivates much of the recent theoretical study on linear MDPs. However, most approaches require a given representation under unrealistic assumptions about the normalization of the decomposition or introduce unresolved computational challenges in practice. Instead, we consider an alternative definition of linear MDPs that automatically ensures normalization while allowing efficient representation learning via contrastive estimation. The framework also admits confidence-adjusted index algorithms, enabling an efficient and principled approach to incorporating optimism or pessimism in the face of uncertainty. To the best of our knowledge, this provides the first practical representation learning method for linear MDPs that achieves both strong theoretical guarantees and empirical performance. Theoretically, we prove that the proposed algorithm is sample efficient in both the online and offline settings. Empirically, we demonstrate superior performance over existing state-of-the-art model-based and model-free algorithms on several benchmarks.Comment: ICML 2022. The first two authors contribute equall

Finding and Certifying (Near-)Optimal Strategies in Black-Box Extensive-Form Games

Often -- for example in war games, strategy video games, and financial simulations -- the game is given to us only as a black-box simulator in which we can play it. In these settings, since the game may have unknown nature action distributions (from which we can only obtain samples) and/or be too large to expand fully, it can be difficult to compute strategies with guarantees on exploitability. Recent work \cite{Zhang20:Small} resulted in a notion of certificate for extensive-form games that allows exploitability guarantees while not expanding the full game tree. However, that work assumed that the black box could sample or expand arbitrary nodes of the game tree at any time, and that a series of exact game solves (via, for example, linear programming) can be conducted to compute the certificate. Each of those two assumptions severely restricts the practical applicability of that method. In this work, we relax both of the assumptions. We show that high-probability certificates can be obtained with a black box that can do nothing more than play through games, using only a regret minimizer as a subroutine. As a bonus, we obtain an equilibrium-finding algorithm with $\tilde O(1/\sqrt{T})$ convergence rate in the extensive-form game setting that does not rely on a sampling strategy with lower-bounded reach probabilities (which MCCFR assumes). We demonstrate experimentally that, in the black-box setting, our methods are able to provide nontrivial exploitability guarantees while expanding only a small fraction of the game tree.Comment: AAAI 202