Modeling Multiple Human-Automation Distributed Systems using Network-form Games

The paper describes at a high-level the network-form game framework (based on Bayes net and game theory), which can be used to model and analyze safety issues in large, distributed, mixed human-automation systems such as NextGen

Using Game Theoretic Models to Predict Pilot Behavior in NextGen Merging and Landing Scenario

In this paper, we present an implementation of the Semi Network-Form Game framework to predict pilot behavior in a merging and landing scenario. In this scenario, two aircraft are approaching to a freeze horizon with approximately equal distance when they become aware of each other via an ADS-B communication link that will be available in NextGen airspace. Both pilots want to gain advantage over the other by entering the freeze horizon earlier and obtain the first place in landing. They re-adjust their speed accordingly. However, they cannot simply increase their speed to the maximum allowable values since they are concerned with safety, separation distance, effort, possibility of being vectored-off from landing and possibility of violating speed constraints. We present how to model these concerns and the rest of the system using semi network-from game framework. Using this framework, based on certain assumptions on pilot utility functions and on system configuration, we provide estimates of pilot behavior and overall system evolution in time. We also discuss the possible employment of this modeling tool for airspace design optimization. To support this discussion, we provide a case where we investigate the effect of increasing the merging point speed limit on the commanded speed distribution and on the percentage of vectored aircraft

Predicting Pilot Behavior in Medium Scale Scenarios Using Game Theory and Reinforcement Learning

Effective automation is critical in achieving the capacity and safety goals of the Next Generation Air Traffic System. Unfortunately creating integration and validation tools for such automation is difficult as the interactions between automation and their human counterparts is complex and unpredictable. This validation becomes even more difficult as we integrate wide-reaching technologies that affect the behavior of different decision makers in the system such as pilots, controllers and airlines. While overt short-term behavior changes can be explicitly modeled with traditional agent modeling systems, subtle behavior changes caused by the integration of new technologies may snowball into larger problems and be very hard to detect. To overcome these obstacles, we show how integration of new technologies can be validated by learning behavior models based on goals. In this framework, human participants are not modeled explicitly. Instead, their goals are modeled and through reinforcement learning their actions are predicted. The main advantage to this approach is that modeling is done within the context of the entire system allowing for accurate modeling of all participants as they interact as a whole. In addition such an approach allows for efficient trade studies and feasibility testing on a wide range of automation scenarios. The goal of this paper is to test that such an approach is feasible. To do this we implement this approach using a simple discrete-state learning system on a scenario where 50 aircraft need to self-navigate using Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) information. In this scenario, we show how the approach can be used to predict the ability of pilots to adequately balance aircraft separation and fly efficient paths. We present results with several levels of complexity and airspace congestion

Predicting pilot behavior in medium-scale scenarios using game theory and reinforcement learning

Cataloged from PDF version of article.A key element to meet the continuing growth in air traffic is the increased use of automation. Decision support systems, computer-based information acquisition, trajectory planning systems, high-level graphic display systems, and all advisory systems are considered to be automation components related to next generation (NextGen) air space. Given a set of goals represented as reward functions, the actions of the players may be predicted. However, several challenges need to be overcome. First, determining how a player can attempt to maximize their reward function can be a difficult inverse problem. Second, players may not be able to perfectly maximize their reward functions. ADS-B technology can provide pilots the information, position, velocity, etc. of other aircraft. However, a pilot has limited ability to use all this information for his/her decision making. For this scenario, the authors model these pilot limitations by assuming that pilots can observe a limited section of the grid in front of them