Forecasting Enrollment Model Based on First-Order Fuzzy Time Series

This paper proposes a novel improvement of forecasting approach based on using time-invariant fuzzy time series. In contrast to traditional forecasting methods, fuzzy time series can be also applied to problems, in which historical data are linguistic values. It is shown that proposed time-invariant method improves the performance of forecasting process. Further, the effect of using different number of fuzzy sets is tested as well. As with the most of cited papers, historical enrollment of the University of Alabama is used in this study to illustrate the forecasting process. Subsequently, the performance of the proposed method is compared with existing fuzzy time series time-invariant models based on forecasting accuracy. It reveals a certain performance superiority of the proposed method over methods described in the literature

Demand Response Strategy Based on Reinforcement Learning and Fuzzy Reasoning for Home Energy Management

As energy demand continues to increase, demand response (DR) programs in the electricity distribution grid are gaining momentum and their adoption is set to grow gradually over the years ahead. Demand response schemes seek to incentivise consumers to use green energy and reduce their electricity usage during peak periods which helps support grid balancing of supply-demand and generate revenue by selling surplus of energy back to the grid. This paper proposes an effective energy management system for residential demand response using Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Fuzzy Reasoning (FR). RL is considered as a model-free control strategy which learns from the interaction with its environment by performing actions and evaluating the results. The proposed algorithm considers human preference by directly integrating user feedback into its control logic using fuzzy reasoning as reward functions. Q-learning, a RL strategy based on a reward mechanism, is used to make optimal decisions to schedule the operation of smart home appliances by shifting controllable appliances from peak periods, when electricity prices are high, to off-peak hours, when electricity prices are lower without affecting the customer’s preferences. The proposed approach works with a single agent to control 14 household appliances and uses a reduced number of state-action pairs and fuzzy logic for rewards functions to evaluate an action taken for a certain state. The simulation results show that the proposed appliances scheduling approach can smooth the power consumption profile and minimise the electricity cost while considering user’s preferences, user’s feedbacks on each action taken and his/her preference settings. A user-interface is developed in MATLAB/Simulink for the Home Energy Management System (HEMS) to demonstrate the proposed DR scheme. The simulation tool includes features such as smart appliances, electricity pricing signals, smart meters, solar photovoltaic generation, battery energy storage, electric vehicle and grid supply.Peer reviewe

Enhanced genetic algorithm-based fuzzy multiobjective strategy to multiproduct batch plant design

This paper addresses the problem of the optimal design of batch plants with imprecise demands in product amounts. The design of such plants necessary involves how equipment may be utilized, which means that plant scheduling and production must constitute a basic part of the design problem. Rather than resorting to a traditional probabilistic approach for modeling the imprecision on product demands, this work proposes an alternative treatment by using fuzzy concepts. The design problem is tackled by introducing a new approach based on a multiobjective genetic algorithm, combined wit the fuzzy set theory for computing the objectives as fuzzy quantities. The problem takes into account simultaneous maximization of the fuzzy net present value and of two other performance criteria, i.e. the production delay/advance and a flexibility index. The delay/advance objective is computed by comparing the fuzzy production time for the products to a given fuzzy time horizon, and the flexibility index represents the additional fuzzy production that the plant would be able to produce. The multiobjective optimization provides the Pareto's front which is a set of scenarios that are helpful for guiding the decision's maker in its final choices. About the solution procedure, a genetic algorithm was implemented since it is particularly well-suited to take into account the arithmetic of fuzzy numbers. Furthermore because a genetic algorithm is working on populations of potential solutions, this type of procedure is well adapted for multiobjective optimization

Characterizing urban landscapes using fuzzy sets

Characterizing urban landscapes is important given the present and future projections of global population that favor urban growth. The definition of “urban” on a thematic map has proven to be problematic since urban areas are heterogeneous in terms of land use and land cover. Further, certain urban classes are inherently imprecise due to the difficulty in integrating various social and environmental inputs into a precise definition. Social components often include demographic patterns, transportation, building type and density while ecological components include soils, elevation, hydrology, climate, vegetation and tree cover. In this paper, we adopt a coupled human and natural system (CHANS) integrated scientific framework for characterizing urban landscapes. We implement the framework by adopting a fuzzy sets concept of “urban characterization” since fuzzy sets relate to classes of object with imprecise boundaries in which membership is a matter of degree. For dynamic mapping applications, user-defined classification schemes involving rules combining different social and ecological inputs can lead to a degree of quantification in class labeling varying from “highly urban” to “least urban”. A socio-economic perspective of urban may include threshold values for population and road network density while a more ecological perspective of urban may utilize the ratio of natural versus built area and percent forest cover. Threshold values are defined to derive the fuzzy rules of membership, in each case, and various combinations of rules offer a greater flexibility to characterize the many facets of the urban landscape. We illustrate the flexibility and utility of this fuzzy inference approach called the Fuzzy Urban Index for the Boston Metro region with five inputs and eighteen rules. The resulting classification map shows levels of fuzzy membership ranging from highly urban to least urban or rural in the Boston study region. We validate our approach using two experts assessing accuracy of the resulting fuzzy urban map. We discuss how our approach can be applied in other urban contexts with newly emerging descriptors of urban sustainability, urban ecology and urban metabolism.This research was partially supported by "Boston University Initiative on Cities Early Stage Urban Research Awards 2015-16" (Gopal & Phillips) and the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future at Boston University. We thank the anonymous reviewers for their careful reading of our manuscript and their many insightful comments and suggestions. (Boston University Initiative on Cities Early Stage Urban Research Awards; Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future at Boston University)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2016.02.002Published versio

Extended Fuzzy Clustering Algorithms

Fuzzy clustering is a widely applied method for obtaining fuzzy models from data. Ithas been applied successfully in various fields including finance and marketing. Despitethe successful applications, there are a number of issues that must be dealt with in practicalapplications of fuzzy clustering algorithms. This technical report proposes two extensionsto the objective function based fuzzy clustering for dealing with these issues. First, the(point) prototypes are extended to hypervolumes whose size is determined automaticallyfrom the data being clustered. These prototypes are shown to be less sensitive to a biasin the distribution of the data. Second, cluster merging by assessing the similarity amongthe clusters during optimization is introduced. Starting with an over-estimated number ofclusters in the data, similar clusters are merged during clustering in order to obtain a suitablepartitioning of the data. An adaptive threshold for merging is introduced. The proposedextensions are applied to Gustafson-Kessel and fuzzy c-means algorithms, and the resultingextended algorithms are given. The properties of the new algorithms are illustrated invarious examples.fuzzy clustering;cluster merging;similarity;volume prototypes