Predicting Violent Crime

This research works to predict the likelihood that an individual is going to participate in a violent crime. The predictors were taken from several bodies of work and synthesized into a survey format, which can be distributed to the desired population. These measures operate on the hypothesis that certain characteristics increase the likelihood of, but do not predict with certainty, an individual\u27s propensity to participate in violent crime. The work also serves as a manual for how to interpret the selected data sets as well as how to break down the statistical correlations of each question to their predictive power

The Rise of the Natural-Rate of Unemployment Model

With respect to political mythology, the Northern spring of 1968 is chiefly remembered (like its forerunner of 1848) as a \u27springtime\u27 of youthful and hirsute left-revolutionary fervour. This revolutionary wave could plausibly include a US President amongst its victims, broken by the weight of office. In contrast to all this tragedy and melodrama, with respect to influence over economic policy and all that flows from that, the most revolutionary call to arms of that time, was Milton Friedman\u27s American Economic Association (AEA) Presidential Address. Neither youthful nor hirsute, he was an advocate of floating exchange rates, monetary targeting, low if not zero inflation, the abandonment of fine tuning, lower taxes and less regulated markets. ISBN: 033373045

THE INFLUENCE OF FRIEDMAN'S METHODOLOGICAL ESSAY

Many leading methodologists have described the central role that Milton Friedman''s 1953 essay (henceforth referred to as F53) has played in methodological discussions. (See for instance Daniel Hammond, 1998; Kevin Hoover; 2001; Roger Backhouse 2002.) However, it does not necessarily follow that it has had a great influence on the practice of economics, because practicing economists pay little attention to free-standing discussions of methodology; at best they learn their methodology by seeing it put to work on substantive problems.1 Arguably, Friedman and Schwartz''s (1963) A Monetary History of the United States, has had more influence on the methodology of practicing economist than did F53. The most pervasive methodological influence in macroeconomics in the last thirty years has been the insistence of new classical economists on reducing macroeconomics to microeconomics, and in this they paid no attention to philosophical debates about reductionism

THE RHETORIC OF FRIEDMAN'S QUANTITY THEORY MANIFESTO

In 1956 when Friedman published his ""The Quantity Theory of Money: A Restatement"" he faced a daunting task because of the widespread hostility to the quantity theory. This paper looks at the rhetoric (in the non-pejorative sense of the term) that he used to overcome this obstacle, and at some of the characteristics of the essay that contribute to its persuasiveness.

The Chicago Counter-Revolution and the Sociology of Economic Knowledge

This chapter is concerned with the internal phenomenon. One model that can be invoked to explain this internal phenomenon is the classical process whereby evidence is patiently accumulated until the weight of the argument favours one side or another. Alternatively, Stigler\u27s \u27model\u27 of the sociology of economic knowledge construction and destruction can be used to examine the internal opinion-changing process in the transition from the overwhelming defeat of Barry Goldwater in 1964 to the overwhelming victory of Ronald Reagan in 1980 - two men with essentially the same programme and the same message (Friedman and Friedman 1982, viii). ISBN: 033373045

The 1980 US/Canada wheat and barley exploratory experiment. Volume 2: Addenda

Three study areas supporting the U.S./Canada Wheat and Barley Exploratory Experiment are discussed including an evaluation of the experiment shakedown test analyst labeling results, an evaluation of the crop proportion estimate procedure 1A component, and the evaluation of spring wheat and barley crop calendar models for the 1979 crop year

The Inefficiency of Short-Run Monetary Targets for Monetary Policy

macroeconomics, monetary policy