Probabilistic verification of satellite systems for mission critical applications

In this thesis, we present a quantitative approach using probabilistic verification techniques for the analysis of reliability, availability, maintainability, and safety (RAMS) properties of satellite systems. The subject of our research is satellites used in mission critical industrial applications. A strong case for using probabilistic model checking to support RAMS analysis of satellite systems is made by our verification results. This study is intended to build a foundation to help reliability engineers with a basic background in model checking to apply probabilistic model checking to small satellite systems. We make two major contributions. One of these is the approach of RAMS analysis to satellite systems. In the past, RAMS analysis has been extensively applied to the field of electrical and electronics engineering. It allows system designers and reliability engineers to predict the likelihood of failures from the indication of historical or current operational data. There is a high potential for the application of RAMS analysis in the field of space science and engineering. However, there is a lack of standardisation and suitable procedures for the correct study of RAMS characteristics for satellite systems. This thesis considers the promising application of RAMS analysis to the case of satellite design, use, and maintenance, focusing on its system segments. Data collection and verification procedures are discussed, and a number of considerations are also presented on how to predict the probability of failure. Our second contribution is leveraging the power of probabilistic model checking to analyse satellite systems. We present techniques for analysing satellite systems that differ from the more common quantitative approaches based on traditional simulation and testing. These techniques have not been applied in this context before. We present the use of probabilistic techniques via a suite of detailed examples, together with their analysis. Our presentation is done in an incremental manner: in terms of complexity of application domains and system models, and a detailed PRISM model of each scenario. We also provide results from practical work together with a discussion about future improvements

Space shuttle navigation analysis. Volume 1: GPS aided navigation

Analytical studies related to space shuttle navigation are presented. Studies related to the addition of NAVSTAR Global Positioning System user equipment to the shuttle avionics suite are presented. The GPS studies center about navigation accuracy covariance analyses for both developmental and operational phases of GPS, as well as for various orbiter mission phases

Characterization of On-Orbit GPS Transmit Antenna Patterns for Space Users

The GPS Antenna Characterization Experiment (GPS ACE) has made extensive observations of GPS L1 signals received at geosynchronous (GEO) altitude, with the objective of developing comprehensive models of the signal levels and signal performance in the GPS transmit antenna side lobes. The experiment was originally motivated by the fact that data on the characteristics and performance of the GPS signals available in GEO and other high Earth orbits was limited. The lack of knowledge of the power and accuracy of the side lobe signals on-orbit added risk to missions seeking to employ the side lobes to meet navigation requirements or improve performance. The GPS ACE Project lled that knowledge gap through a collaboration between The Aerospace Corporation and NASA Goddard Space Fight Center to collect and analyze observations from GPS side lobe transmissions to a satellite at GEO using a highly-sensitive GPS receiver installed at the ground station. The GPS ACE architecture has been in place collecting observations of the GPS constellation with extreme sensitivity for several years. This sensitivity combined with around-the-clock, all-in-view processing enabled full azimuthal coverage of the GPS transmit gain patterns over time to angles beyond 90 degrees off-boresight. Results discussed in this paper include the reconstructed transmit gain patterns, with comparisons to available pre-fight gain measurements from the GPS vehicle contractors. For GPS blocks with extensive ground measurements, the GPS ACE results show remarkable agreement with ground based measurements. For blocks without extensive ground measurements, the GPS ACE results provide the only existing assessments of the full transmit gain patterns. The paper also includes results of pseudorange deviation analysis to assess systematic errors associated with GPS side lobe signals

Verifying collision avoidance behaviours for unmanned surface vehicles using probabilistic model checking

Collision avoidance is an essential safety requirement for unmanned surface vehicles (USVs). Normally, its practical verification is non-trivial, due to the stochastic behaviours of both the USVs and the intruders. This paper presents the probabilistic timed automata (PTAs) based formalism for three collision avoidance behaviours of USVs in uncertain dynamic environments, which are associated with the crossing situation in COLREGs. Steering right, acceleration, and deceleration are considered potential evasive manoeuvres. The state-of-the-art prism model checker is applied to analyse the underlying models. This work provides a framework and practical application of the probabilistic model checking for decision making in collision avoidance for USVs

Performance of Receiver Autonomous Integrity Monitoring (RAIM) for Maritime Operations

The use of GNSS in the context of maritime applications has evolved during the past. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has defined and published requirements for those applications. Comparing the requirements on the one hand specified by ICAO and on the other hand by IMO, significant differences get obvious. A major focus is on the evaluation of the performance of the integrity algorithms. Also concept drivers are discussed

Design study of a low cost civil aviation GPS receiver system

A low cost Navstar receiver system for civil aviation applications was defined. User objectives and constraints were established. Alternative navigation processing design trades were evaluated. Receiver hardware was synthesized by comparing technology projections with various candidate system designs. A control display unit design was recommended as the result of field test experience with Phase I GPS sets and a review of special human factors for general aviation users. Areas requiring technology development to ensure a low cost Navstar Set in the 1985 timeframe were identified

Optimal Estimation Inversion of Ionospheric Electron Density from GNSS-POD Limb Measurements: Part I-Algorithm and Morphology

GNSS-LEO radio links from Precise Orbital Determination (POD) and Radio Occultation (RO) antennas have been used increasingly in characterizing the global 3D distribution and variability of ionospheric electron density (Ne). In this study, we developed an optimal estimation (OE) method to retrieve Ne profiles from the slant total electron content (hTEC) measurements acquired by the GNSS-POD links at negative elevation angles (ε \u3c 0°). Although both OE and onion-peeling (OP) methods use the Abel weighting function in the Ne inversion, they are significantly different in terms of performance in the lower ionosphere. The new OE results can overcome the large Ne oscillations, sometimes negative values, seen in the OP retrievals in the E-region ionosphere. In the companion paper in this Special Issue, the HmF2 and NmF2 from the OE retrieval are validated against ground-based ionosondes and radar observations, showing generally good agreements in NmF2 from all sites. Nighttime hmF2 measurements tend to agree better than the daytime when the ionosonde heights tend to be slightly lower. The OE algorithm has been applied to all GNSS-POD data acquired from the COSMIC-1 (2006–2019), COSMIC-2 (2019–present), and Spire (2019–present) constellations, showing a consistent ionospheric Ne morphology. The unprecedented spatiotemporal sampling of the ionosphere from these constellations now allows a detailed analysis of the frequency–wavenumber spectra for the Ne variability at different heights. In the lower ionosphere (~150 km), we found significant spectral power in DE1, DW6, DW4, SW5, and SE4 wave components, in addition to well-known DW1, SW2, and DE3 waves. In the upper ionosphere (~450 km), additional wave components are still present, including DE4, DW4, DW6, SE4, and SW4. The co-existence of eastward- and westward-propagating wave4 components implies the presence of a stationary wave4 (SPW4), as suggested by other earlier studies. Further improvements to the OE method are proposed, including a tomographic inversion technique that leverages the asymmetric sampling about the tangent point associated with GNSS-LEO links

Space communications responsive to events across missions (SCREAM): an investigation of network solutions for transient science space systems

2022 Spring.Includes bibliographical references.The National Academies have prioritized the pursuit of new scientific discoveries using diverse and temporally coordinated measurements from multiple ground and space-based observatories. Networked communications can enable such measurements by connecting individual observatories and allowing them to operate as a cohesive and purposefully designed system. Timely data flows across terrestrial and space communications networks are required to observe transient scientific events and processes. Currently, communications to space-based observatories experience large latencies due to manual service reservation and scheduling procedures, intermittent signal coverage, and network capacity constraints. If space communications network latencies could be reduced, new discoveries about dynamic scientific processes could be realized. However, science mission and network planners lack a systematic framework for defining, quantifying and evaluating timely space data flow implementation options for transient scientific observation scenarios involving multiple ground and space-based observatories. This dissertation presents a model-based systems engineering approach to investigate and develop network solutions to meet the needs of transient science space systems. First, a systematic investigation of the current transient science operations of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) space data network and the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory resulted in a formal architectural model for transient science space systems. Two methods individual missions may use to achieve timely network services were defined, quantitatively modeled, and experimentally compared. Next, the architectural model was extended to describe two alternative ways to achieve timely and autonomous space data flows to multiple space-based observatories within the context of a purposefully designed transient science observation scenario. A quantitative multipoint space data flow modeling method based in queueing theory was defined. General system suitability metrics for timeliness, throughput, and capacity were specified to support the evaluation of alternative network data flow implementations. A hypothetical design study was performed to demonstrate the multipoint data flow modeling method and to evaluate alternative data flow implementations using TDRS. The merits of a proposed future TDRS broadcast service to implement multipoint data flows were quantified and compared to expected outcomes using the as-built TDRS network. Then, the architectural model was extended to incorporate commercial network service providers. Quantitative models for Globalstar and Iridium short messaging data services were developed based on publicly available sources. Financial cost was added to the set of system suitability metrics. The hypothetical design study was extended to compare the relative suitability of the as-built TDRS network with the commercial Globalstar and Iridium networks. Finally, results from this research are being applied by NASA missions and network planners. In 2020, Swift implemented the first automated command pipeline, increasing its expected gravitational wave follow-up detection rate by greater than 400%. Current NASA technology initiatives informed by this research will enable future space-based observatories to become interoperable sensing devices connected by a diverse ecosystem of network service providers