Editorial: Statistics and forensic science

Forensic science is usually taken to mean the application of a broad spectrum of scientific tools to answer questions of interest to the legal system. Despite such popular television series as CSI: Crime Scene Investigation and its spinoffs--CSI: Miami and CSI: New York--on which the forensic scientists use the latest high-tech scientific tools to identify the perpetrator of a crime and always in under an hour, forensic science is under assault, in the public media, popular magazines [Talbot (2007), Toobin (2007)] and in the scientific literature [Kennedy (2003), Saks and Koehler (2005)]. Ironically, this growing controversy over forensic science has occurred precisely at the time that DNA evidence has become the ``gold standard'' in the courts, leading to the overturning of hundreds of convictions many of which were based on clearly less credible forensic evidence, including eyewitness testimony [Berger (2006)].Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS140 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Sensitivity of inferences in forensic genetics to assumptions about founding genes

Many forensic genetics problems can be handled using structured systems of discrete variables, for which Bayesian networks offer an appealing practical modeling framework, and allow inferences to be computed by probability propagation methods. However, when standard assumptions are violated--for example, when allele frequencies are unknown, there is identity by descent or the population is heterogeneous--dependence is generated among founding genes, that makes exact calculation of conditional probabilities by propagation methods less straightforward. Here we illustrate different methodologies for assessing sensitivity to assumptions about founders in forensic genetics problems. These include constrained steepest descent, linear fractional programming and representing dependence by structure. We illustrate these methods on several forensic genetics examples involving criminal identification, simple and complex disputed paternity and DNA mixtures.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS235 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The CSI Effect: Fact or Fiction?

The CSI effect has been a subject undergoing intense scrutiny in recent years. With the ever-increasing number of television shows, such as CSI and all of its spinoffs, that poorly represent the field of forensic science, there has also been a growing concern over the effects that media has on the legal system. Prosecutors argue that the CSI effect raises their burden of proof and makes jurors more likely to acquit in cases involving little or no forensic evidence, while defense lawyers claim that jurors are more inclined to wrongfully convict based on their unrealistic perceptions of forensic evidence. This paper aims to determine if the CSI effect exists by exploring the effects that crime-show-related media has on the community, analyzing jurors’ perceptions of forensic evidence, and comparing the currently published statistics on pre- and post-CSI acquittal rates

Forensic Accounting Impact on Fraud Detection in Saudi Arabia

The primary subject matter of this research is to examines the effect of forensic accounting on fraud detection in Saudi Arabia. The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between fraud detection and forensic accounting in the context of a developing country, Saudi Arabia. Descriptive Statistics are used to present quantitative descriptions in a manageable form. The collected data were analyzed with descriptive statistics using ordinary least square (OLS) regression and Chi-square. The study reveals that the application of forensic accounting services on firms affects the level of fraudulent activities. This paper findings conclude that forensic accounting services provide Saudi Arabian companies with the necessary tools to deter fraudulent activities but does not curb fraudulent activities. Keywords: Forensic Accounting; Financial Fraud, Anti-fraud detection; falsification of accounts; and Saudi Arabia. DOI: 10.7176/RJFA/13-20-02 Publication date:October 31st 202

Automatic Generation of Bayesian networks in Forensic Science

This work was supported in part by the European Research Council under project ERC-2013-AdG339182-BAYES KNOWLEDG

Bayes Factors for Forensic Decision Analyses with R

Bayes Factors for Forensic Decision Analyses with R provides a self-contained introduction to computational Bayesian statistics using R. With its primary focus on Bayes factors supported by data sets, this book features an operational perspective, practical relevance, and applicability—keeping theoretical and philosophical justifications limited. It offers a balanced approach to three naturally interrelated topics: – Probabilistic Inference: Relies on the core concept of Bayesian inferential statistics, to help practicing forensic scientists in the logical and balanced evaluation of the weight of evidence. – Decision Making: Features how Bayes factors are interpreted in practical applications to help address questions of decision analysis involving the use of forensic science in the law. – Operational Relevance: Combines inference and decision, backed up with practical examples and complete sample code in R, including sensitivity analyses and discussion on how to interpret results in context. Over the past decades, probabilistic methods have established a firm position as a reference approach for the management of uncertainty in virtually all areas of science, including forensic science, with Bayes' theorem providing the fundamental logical tenet for assessing how new information—scientific evidence—ought to be weighed. Central to this approach is the Bayes factor, which clarifies the evidential meaning of new information, by providing a measure of the change in the odds in favor of a proposition of interest, when going from the prior to the posterior distribution. Bayes factors should guide the scientist's thinking about the value of scientific evidence and form the basis of logical and balanced reporting practices, thus representing essential foundations for rational decision making under uncertainty. This book would be relevant to students, practitioners, and applied statisticians interested in inference and decision analyses in the critical field of forensic science. It could be used to support practical courses on Bayesian statistics and decision theory at both undergraduate and graduate levels, and will be of equal interest to forensic scientists and practitioners of Bayesian statistics for driving their evaluations and the use of R for their purposes

Bayes Factors for Forensic Decision Analyses with R

Bayes Factors for Forensic Decision Analyses with R provides a self-contained introduction to computational Bayesian statistics using R. With its primary focus on Bayes factors supported by data sets, this book features an operational perspective, practical relevance, and applicability—keeping theoretical and philosophical justifications limited. It offers a balanced approach to three naturally interrelated topics: – Probabilistic Inference: Relies on the core concept of Bayesian inferential statistics, to help practicing forensic scientists in the logical and balanced evaluation of the weight of evidence. – Decision Making: Features how Bayes factors are interpreted in practical applications to help address questions of decision analysis involving the use of forensic science in the law. – Operational Relevance: Combines inference and decision, backed up with practical examples and complete sample code in R, including sensitivity analyses and discussion on how to interpret results in context. Over the past decades, probabilistic methods have established a firm position as a reference approach for the management of uncertainty in virtually all areas of science, including forensic science, with Bayes' theorem providing the fundamental logical tenet for assessing how new information—scientific evidence—ought to be weighed. Central to this approach is the Bayes factor, which clarifies the evidential meaning of new information, by providing a measure of the change in the odds in favor of a proposition of interest, when going from the prior to the posterior distribution. Bayes factors should guide the scientist's thinking about the value of scientific evidence and form the basis of logical and balanced reporting practices, thus representing essential foundations for rational decision making under uncertainty. This book would be relevant to students, practitioners, and applied statisticians interested in inference and decision analyses in the critical field of forensic science. It could be used to support practical courses on Bayesian statistics and decision theory at both undergraduate and graduate levels, and will be of equal interest to forensic scientists and practitioners of Bayesian statistics for driving their evaluations and the use of R for their purposes

Probability, propensity and probabilities of propensities (and of probabilities)

The process of doing Science in condition of uncertainty is illustrated with a toy experiment in which the inferential and the forecasting aspects are both present. The fundamental aspects of probabilistic reasoning, also relevant in real life applications, arise quite naturally and the resulting discussion among non-ideologized, free-minded people offers an opportunity for clarifications.Comment: Invited contribution to the proceedings MaxEnt 2016 based on the talk given at the workshop (Ghent, Belgium, 10-15 July 2016), supplemented by work done within the program Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science at the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridg