Reply: Prof. Karel Brookhuis

Fast Transport on Request (FTR) is proposed in the Netherlands as an alternative relief, if not a real solution, to the strongly rising parking and congestions problems that this small country faces. The private car is steadfast favourite, however, and will be so in the (near) future, ceteris paribus (Steg, 1996, SCP, 2005). There is no ground to embrace the view that without particular, drastic changes a dramatic “modal shift” from car to Public Transport (PT) will occur. Within the category PT the bus is inferior to the train as far as comfort perception and travel preferences are concerned (Steg, 1996, 2003). FTR is not presented as a bus, but still… at first sight FTR seems not to be the remedy, yet, at least not without degrading the private car as a mode of transport

Integral cost-benefit analysis of Maglev technology under market imperfections

The aim of this article is to assess a proposed new mode of guided high speed ground transportation, the magnetic levitation rail system (Maglev), and to compare the results of a partial cost-benefit analysis with those of an integral CBA. We deal with an urbanconglomeration as well as a core-periphery Maglev project and also try to explain why the older German Maglev proposal to connect two large, but distant cities (Hamburg and Berlin) was rejected. The empirical outcomes of our study provide policy information on the interregional redistribution of working population and labor demand and whether these projects are worthwhile in terms of national welfare. They also show that the additional economic benefits due to market imperfections vary from –1% to +38% of the direct transport benefits, depending on the type of regions connected and the general condition of the economy. Hence, a uniform ‘additional to direct benefit’ ratio does not exist.

MODELING SEQUENTIAL TOURIST FLOWS: WHERE IS THE NEXT DESTINATION?

Abstract: This paper analyzes the subsequent decisions of tourists with respect to sequential destinations: why they visit a given destination after visiting a previous one and where they are most likely to go. Using a dataset from an on-site tourist survey in Nanjing, China, we study this decision process by partitioning it into three stages, and a nested logit model is used to estimate the determinants in each stage. Apart from the individual characteristics of tourists and destination attributes, we find that the spatial configuration of destinations (spatial structure) also tends to influence tourists' destination choice. Finally, a series of simulations are carried out to understand the competition/substitution patterns between subsequent destinations

A review of computable general equilibrium models for transport and their applications in appraisal

© 2018 Elsevier Ltd In the transport planning process, decision makers require reliable and informative appraisals to facilitate comparisons and determine if a proposal is worthwhile to society. The cost–benefit analysis is the most common form of appraisal, where benefits are primarily measured from the change in consumer surplus in the transport market. However, these benefits will only reflect maximum social welfare if markets operate perfectly competitively and without any market failures. There may be significant uncaptured impacts, known as wider economic impacts, which agencies are beginning to incorporate in appraisals using ad-hoc methods. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are an increasingly popular method for assessing the economic impact of transport, including both direct and wider economic impacts, as they can determine the distribution of impacts among every market and agent in the economy by simulating the behaviour of households, firms and others from microeconomic first principles. Aside from their traditional role estimating changes in macroeconomic variables, CGE models can provide a measure of welfare that guarantees no double counting and accounts for nth order effects. This paper reviews the full range of CGE models that have been applied to transport issues and discusses their role in transport appraisal. CGE models for transport have been developed in urban, regional and environmental economics as well as other fields, and each field has applied its own theory, assumptions and practices to represent the relationships between transport and the economy relevant to the field. This paper also discusses the general role of CGE modelling in transport appraisal, as well as theoretical and practical concerns regarding CGE modelling practice

Decarbonizing development: three steps to a zero-carbon future

This report lays out three steps for a smooth transition to a zero-carbon future and provides data, examples and policy advice to help countries makes the shift. Overview Getting to zero net emissions and stabilizing climate change starts with planning for the long-term future and not stopping at short-term goals. It means getting prices right as part of a broad policy package that can trigger changes in both investments and behaviors, and it requires smoothing the transition for those most affected. A new World Bank report walks policymakers through those three steps with data, examples and policy advice to help put countries on a path to decarbonizing their development in a smooth and orderly way. The solutions exist, and they are affordable – if governments take action today, the report says

Commuting flows & local labour markets: Spatial interaction modelling of travel-to-work

One of the most promising approaches to mitigating land-use and transportation problems is continued research on urban commuting. Commuting is essential to many individuals, allowing them to participate in the labour market and earn a living to meet their essential needs. As such, a better understanding of the determinants of commuting will ultimately lead to a better understanding of the complexities of employment, housing, and the many spatial processes underlying commuting. However, in order to understand the commuting process, it is important to examine the milieu within which commuting takes place: the local labour market (LLM). In this thesis, the interplay between commuting and LLMs is explored through the use of regionalisation techniques and spatial interaction models. It is shown that LLM characteristics play a significant role in intra-regional commuting patterns and that a failure to account for LLM conditions may seriously hinder the applicability of models of commuting. Specically, it is found that there are many dierent LLMs across Ireland, and that these LLMs characterise the commuting patterns of population sub-groups. By incorporating these LLMs into models of commuting, this thesis shows that in addition to distance and working population size, the spatial structure of origins and destinations and a number of non-spatial attributes such as unemployment, housing density, and education, all signi- cantly aect commuting ows. Furthermore, the distance decay component of these models appears to be capturing a combination of geographical distance and regional dierentiation due to LLM boundaries, leading to `functional' distance decay. This concept of functional distance decay is a key nding of this thesis, and indicates that in addition to the conguration of origins and destinations, distance decay is also dependent on the spatial structure of LLMs, or more generally, the totality of surrounding conditions within which spatial interaction takes place

Az EU-transzferek felhasználásának eredményessége és makrogazdasági hatásai

Egyre fontosabbá válik az a kérdés, hogy az EU által nyújtott támogatások mekkora szerepet játszanak a tagállamok felzárkózási folyamatában, mennyiben járulnak hozzá a gazdasági növekedéshez. Ennek a kérdésnek igen nagy jelentősége van Magyarország szempontjából is, hiszen a csatlakozás óta jelentős mértékű uniós forrásban részesülünk, amely – megfelelő felhasználás esetén – segíthet egy magasabb növekedési pályára lépésben, elősegítheti a konvergenciát Az Európai Uniótól kapott támogatások számos csatornán keresztül befolyásolhatják egy ország hosszú távú gazdasági növekedését. A pénzügyi támogatások keresletnövelő hatása ösztönzi a gazdaságot, a fizikai infrastruktúra javítása ösztönzi a kereskedelmet, vonzza a beruházásokat, ezáltal a gazdasági hatékonyság fokozódik. Az EU-tól kapott tőketranszferek bővítik a beruházásokat, növelik a vállalkozások versenyképességét, ezáltal a GDP-növekedésre is ösztönzőleg hatnak. A humántőke fejlesztését szolgáló programok növelik a foglalkoztatást, ami önmagában nagyobb hozzáadott-értéket eredményez, továbbá ezzel együtt növekszik a vásárlóerő is, ami tovább élénkíti a gazdaságot. A kutatásra és fejlesztésre, valamint az információtechnológiára adott támogatások hosszabb távon eredményezik a versenyképesség javulását. A támogatások nagyságán túl az optimális felhasználási szerkezetnek legalább akkora szerepe van a felzárkózás elősegítésében, vagyis hogy megfelelő mértékben fordítják-e produktív területekre, mint például a kutatás-fejlesztés és a humántőke támogatása. Az említett hatások modellezéséhez megfelelő keretet kínálnak az endogén növekedési elméletek, melyekben a fenti tényezők jelentik a technológiai haladás legfontosabb magyarázó változóit