Long-term penetration and traffic forecasts for the Western European fixed broadband market

The objective with the paper is to describe, analyze and forecast the future fixed broadband penetration and traffic growth in NGN and NGA networks in Western Europe - one of the most advanced telecommunications areas in the world. Analyses show that the broadband penetrations are very well fitted by Logistic models. Here, extended Logistic four parameter models are used to develop broadband penetration forecasts 2011 - 2015. Separate forecasts are developed for DSL, HFC(Hybrid Fiber Coax), FTTx and FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) The traffic forecasts are developed per user in the busy hour. Hence, it is possible to assess the future fixed broadband busy hour traffic in NGA networks and also the accumulated busy hour traffic in NGN networks taking into account the fixed broadband penetration forecasts. --Fixed broadband,NGA,NGN,long-term forecasts,penetration,traffic

A Dynamic Macroeconomic Model for the US Telecommunications Industry

Dynamic models have been used in most businesses serving different purposes. The increased changes of the Telecommunications environment have created a dynamic industry emerging new dynamic economic models. We investigated the Telecom industry by conducting macroeconomic and infrastructure analysis. However, this paper uses recent data from the Telecommunications industry to reveal the infrastructure trends and predict the US wireless growth. The analysis is focused on several factors such as the infrastructure described by the Teledensity, the employment and the Telecom revenues in comparison with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The purpose of this analysis is to understand the industry’s behavior during a specific period of time, 1984-2003, propose an appropriate economic dynamic model, wireless oriented that identifies the current driving forces and detects the impact of some critical events and trends.Dynamic Economic Model, Macroeconomic Analysis, Telecom Act, Teledensity

Stochastic user behaviour modelling and network simulation for resource management in cooperation with mobile telecommunications and broadcast networks

The latest generations of telecommunications networks have been designed to deliver higher data rates than widely used second generation telecommunications networks, providing flexible communication capabilities that can deliver high quality video images. However, these new generations of telecommunications networks are interference limited, impairing their performance in cases of heavy traffic and high usage. This limits the services offered by a telecommunications network operator to those that the operator is confident their network can meet the demand for. One way to lift this constraint would be for the mobile telecommunications network operator to obtain the cooperation of a broadcast network operator so that during periods when the demand for the service is too high for the telecommunications network to meet, the service can be transferred to the broadcast network. In the United Kingdom the most recent telecommunications networks on the market are third generation UMTS networks while the terrestrial digital broadcast networks are DVB-T networks. This paper proposes a way for UMTS network operators to forecast the traffic associated with high demand services intended to be deployed on the UMTS network and when demand requires to transfer it to a cooperating DVB-T network. The paper aims to justify to UMTS network operators the use of a DVB-T network as a support for a UMTS network by clearly showing how using a DVB-T network to support it can increase the revenue generated by their network

“Corporate restructuring issues under the holding company structure – The NTT Case in Japan”

ABSTRACT This research paper focused on the corporate restructuring of Nippon Telegraph Telecommunication (NTT Group) under the pure holding company structure in 1999 and its implications. In order to understand the holding company structure, we introduced the concept of "internal capital markets" and explained its application within the framework of NTT Group. Next, we gave an account of the background events leading to NTT Group's corporate restructuring in order to understand the reason for choosing and keeping the holding company structure. Our research methodologies include interviews with NTT Group's management and data from public sources. Finally, to analyze the effect of the holding company structure to NTT Group, we conducted a hypothetical valuation analysis using the free cash flow model. Comparing the market value of NTT Group with our valuation results, it appeared that the market has undervalued NTT Group. We concluded our report with some suggestions on how NTT Group might be able to increase their market value.HOLDING COMPANY STRUCTURE, RESTRUCTURING, INTERNAL CAPITAL MARKET, VALUATION

Equity valuation : Cellnex Telecom S.A.

This dissertation presents the valuation of Cellnex Telecom S.A., an independent infrastructure operator for wireless telecommunications traded in the Madrid Stock Exchange. The valuation relies on the application of two models – Adjusted Present Value (APV) and Relative Valuation – followed by a sensitivity analysis with the objective of testing the assumptions made. Through the application of the APV model Cellnex Telecom S.A is valued in €22.81 per share. The Relative Valuation method is only used to better understand how the market currently values similar companies rather than being a support for the investment recommendation. Lastly, this dissertation results are compared and analyzed to the results reported by Morgan Stanley Investment Bank dated 2nd August 2017.Esta dissertação apresenta a avaliação da Cellnex Telecom S.A., uma operadora independente de infraestruturas para telecomunicações wireless cotada na Bolsa de Madrid. A avaliação conta com a aplicação de dois modelos – Valor Atual Liquido Ajustado (VALA) e Avaliação Relativa – seguida de uma análise de sensibilidade com o objetivo de testar os pressupostos feitos. Através da aplicação do modelo VALA a Cellnex Telecom S.A é avaliada em €22.81 por ação. O método de Avaliação Relativa é utilizado exclusivamente por forma a melhor perceber como o mercado avalia atualmente empresas similares ao invés de servir de suporte para a recomendação de investimento. Por fim, os resultados desta dissertação são comparados e analisados com os resultados reportados pelo Banco de Investimento Morgan Stanley em 2 de agosto de 2017