Adaptive Moment Estimation On Deep Belief Network For Rupiah Currency Forecasting

One approach that is often used in forecasting is artificial neural networks (ANN), but ANNs have problems in determining the initial weight value between connections, a long time to reach convergent, and minimum local problems.Deep Belief Network (DBN) model is proposed to improve ANN's ability to forecast exchange rates. DBN is composed of a Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM) stack. The DBN structure is optimally determined through experiments. The Adam method is applied to accelerate learning in DBN because it is able to achieve good results quickly compared to other stochastic optimization methods such as Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) by maintaining the level of learning for each parameter.Tests are carried out on USD / IDR daily exchange rate data and four evaluation criteria are adopted to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The DBN-Adam model produces RMSE 59.0635004, MAE 46.406739, MAPE 0.34652. DBN-Adam is also able to reach the point of convergence quickly, where this result is able to outperform the DBN-SGD model

Forecasting Stock Exchange Data using Group Method of Data Handling Neural Network Approach

The increasing uncertainty of the natural world has motivated computer scientists to seek out the best approach to technological problems. Nature-inspired problem-solving approaches include meta-heuristic methods that are focused on evolutionary computation and swarm intelligence. One of these problems significantly impacting information is forecasting exchange index, which is a serious concern with the growth and decline of stock as there are many reports on loss of financial resources or profitability. When the exchange includes an extensive set of diverse stock, particular concepts and mechanisms for physical security, network security, encryption, and permissions should guarantee and predict its future needs. This study aimed to show it is efficient to use the group method of data handling (GMDH)-type neural networks and their application for the classification of numerical results. Such modeling serves to display the precision of GMDH-type neural networks. Following the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in April 2018, the behavior of the stock exchange data stream and commend algorithms has not been able to predict correctly and fit in the network satisfactorily. This paper demonstrated that Group Method Data Handling is most likely to improve inductive self-organizing approaches for addressing realistic severe problems such as the Iranian financial market crisis. A new trajectory would be used to verify the consistency of the obtained equations hence the models' validity

Stock Marketing Prediction Using Narx Algorithm

Computational technologies have offered faster and efficient solutions to financial sector. In the financial market, the advancements in computational field have been achieved by the use of neural networks and machine learning that delivered a number of financial tools. Thus, in this thesis, we aim to predict the stock index marketing for the “Dow Jones” index by using deep learning algorithms. We propose a model based on an adaptive NARX neural network to predict the closing price of a moderately stable market. In our model, non-linear auto regressive exogenous input model inserts delays into the input as well as the output acting as memory slots thereby raising the accuracy of the prediction. Moreover, Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm has been used for training the network. The accuracy of the model is determined by the mean squared error. We also used LR model, with the same parameters as NARX, to improve the overall accuracy

Convolutional neural networks applied to high-frequency market microstructure forecasting

Highly sophisticated artificial neural networks have achieved unprecedented performance across a variety of complex real-world problems over the past years, driven by the ability to detect significant patterns autonomously. Modern electronic stock markets produce large volumes of data, which are very suitable for use with these algorithms. This research explores new scientific ground by designing and evaluating a convolutional neural network in predicting future financial outcomes. A visually inspired transformation process translates high-frequency market microstructure data from the London Stock Exchange into four market-event based input channels, which are used to train six deep networks. Primary results indicate that con-volutional networks behave reasonably well on this task and extract interesting microstructure patterns, which are in line with previous theoretical findings. Furthermore, it demonstrates a new approach using modern deep-learning techniques for exploiting and analysing market microstructure behaviour

Comparing Models for Time Series Analysis

Historically, traditional methods such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) have played an important role for researchers studying time series data. Recently, as advances in computer science and machine learning have gained widespread attention, researchers of time series analysis have brought new techniques to the table. In this paper, we examine the performance difference between ARIMA and a relatively recent development in the machine learning community called Long-Short Term Memory Networks (LSTM). Whereas many traditional methods assume the existence of an underlying stochastic model, these algorithmic approaches make no claims about the generation process. Our primary measure of performance is how well each model forecasts out-of-sample data. We find that data with strong seasonal structure are forecast comparatively well by either method. On the other hand, without strong seasonality, there is very little information that can be extracted and both methods tend to perform poorly in forecasting

An application of deep learning for exchange rate forecasting

This paper examines the performance of several state-of-the-art deep learning techniques for exchange rate forecasting (deep feedforward network, convolutional network and a long short-term memory). On the one hand, the configuration of the different architectures is clearly detailed, as well as the tuning of the parameters and the regularisation techniques used to avoid overfitting. On the other hand, we design an out-of-sample forecasting experiment and evaluate the accuracy of three different deep neural networks to predict the US/UK foreign exchange rate in the days after the Brexit took effect. Of the three configurations, we obtain the best results with the deep feedforward architecture. When comparing the deep learning networks to time-series models used as a benchmark, the obtained results are highly dependent on the specific topology used in each case. Thus, although the three architectures generate more accurate predictions than the time-series models, the results vary considerably depending on the specific topology. These results hint at the potential of deep learning techniques, but they also highlight the importance of properly configuring, implementing and selecting the different topologies