Estimating components of ICT expenditure: a model-based approach with applicability to short time-series

This paper develops a microeconomic model-based approach to forecast national information and communications technology expenditure that is helpful when only very short time-series are available. The model specification incorporates parameters for network effects and national e-readiness. Finally, the model allows for observed non-homotheticity and ‘noise’ found in sample data, with the latter attributed to country-specific influences.ICT forecasts; short time-series; microeconomic modeling

Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods

We looked at evidence from comparative empirical studies to identify methods that can be useful for predicting demand in various situations and to warn against methods that should not be used. In general, use structured methods and avoid intuition, unstructured meetings, focus groups, and data mining. In situations where there are sufficient data, use quantitative methods including extrapolation, quantitative analogies, rule-based forecasting, and causal methods. Otherwise, use methods that structure judgement including surveys of intentions and expectations, judgmental bootstrapping, structured analogies, and simulated interaction. Managers' domain knowledge should be incorporated into statistical forecasts. Methods for combining forecasts, including Delphi and prediction markets, improve accuracy. We provide guidelines for the effective use of forecasts, including such procedures as scenarios. Few organizations use many of the methods described in this paper. Thus, there are opportunities to improve efficiency by adopting these forecasting practices.Accuracy, expertise, forecasting, judgement, marketing.

Does the growth of mobile markets cause the demise of fixed networks? Evidence from the European Union

The increasing usage of mobile communication and the declining demand for fixed line telephony in Europe make the analysis of substitutional effects between fixed and mobile networks a key aspect for future telecommunication regulation. Using a unique dataset which contains information on all 27 European Union members from 2003 to 2009, we analyze substitutability between fixed and mobile telecommunications services in Europe by applying dynamic panel data techniques. We find strong empirical evidence for substitution from fixed to cellular networks throughout Europe. In addition, the article reveals resulting policy implications. --dynamic panel model,fixed-mobile substitution,telecommunication markets

The Australia-Korea Economic Relationship and Prospects for an FTA

Since the 1960s, trade opportunities based on complementary economies have driven the Australia-Korea economic relationship. Australia exported raw materials, principally minerals and energy, which Korea processed and subsequently sold on domestic and international markets. In return, Australia purchased increasing volumes of Korean manufactures, initially textiles, clothing and footwear and later automobiles. With the onset of the financial and economic crisis in Korea during 1997-98, trade and investment opportunities were severely constrained. However, in the wake of the crisis, and the rapid recovery of the Korean economy underpinned by corporate and financial sector reforms, trade and investment opportunities in traditional areas have re-emerged as well as in new areas. Australia's rapid economic growth has also increased demand for the sorts of consumer products produced by Korea. It is, therefore, opportune to consider the benefits, and obstacles, to the establishment of an Australia-Korea Free Trade Agreement. The paper analyses trends in Australia's trade and investment with Korea. New areas for trade are also highlighted as well as prospects for an FTA between the two countries. In doing so it: reviews the Australia-Korea bilateral trade relationship; reviews the nature and extent of foreign direct investment between Australia and Korea; reviews trade and investment prospects and opportunities between the two countries; analyses the prospects for a Korea-Australia Free Trade Agreement (KAFTA); reviews the potential economic effects from a KAFTA; and identifies key policy implications.Australia, Korea, free trade agreement, trade and investment

Residential broadband subscription demand: an econometric analysis of Australian choice experiment data

The recent roll-out of fibre-optic cable suggests that the willingness of households in passed communities to subscribe to networked services is an important issue. This paper studies the determination of the demand for network subscription. Through a discrete choice model the effect of installation and rental price on the likelihood of subscription is analysed. The logit regression is based on choice experiment (stated preference)subscription data obtained from a national survey of households. Limitations of this preliminary work and suggestions for future research are discussed.Broadband subscription demand

Production Planning and Customer Satisfaction in Table Water Companies in Edo State

Purpose: This study aims to model the relationship between production planning and customer satisfaction in selected table water companies in Edo State. The production planning strategies analysed in this study were demand forecasting, aggregate planning, capacity utilizations and quality control; with the following dimensions in focus: product quality, product brand, availability of products, lead time and satisfaction with sales process.This study adopted a cross-sectional survey design approach. The population for this study comprised all registered table water companies in Edo State (527) and a random sample of two hundred (200) customers of table water companies in Edo State. Two (2) different sets of questionnaire were distributed to two hundred and twenty seven (227) production managers of Table water companies in Edo State and two hundred (200) randomly selected retailers of table water companies. Data collected was analyzed with descriptive statistics and then Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) software – Smart PLS (Partial Least Square) was used for model estimation. The study found out that production planning in Table water companies in Edo state does not have a significant influence on customer satisfaction. It was also discovered that out of four production planning methods (aggregate planning, capacity utilization, demand forecasting and quality control) only one (aggregate planning) had a positive and significant influence on customer satisfaction as it pertains to product quality, product brand, satisfaction with sales process, lead time and availability of products. This study presents an attempt to implement production planning techniques in table water companies in Edo state, Nigeria, with a bid to improve customer satisfaction. Keywords: Production planning, Customer satisfaction, Table water companies, aggregate planning. DOI: 10.7176/EJBM/11-17-08 Publication date:June 30th 201

Modelling global diffusion.

This paper presents a general model of global diffusion processes. The approach recognizes 'breadth' and 'depth' of adoption by first considering the sequential introduction of the innovation across countries (breadth). Given the time of introduction into a specific country, within-country diffusion (depth) is subsequently modelled. We illustrate the approach using data from the cellular telephone industry for 184countries. The proposed provides empirical insights which could not have been obtained using traditional techniques. In particular, we show that breadth and depth processes are not necessarily affected by the same socioeconomic factors. We also are able to evaluate the importance of the linkage between the two processes.

Contribution of the internet towards sustainable development through its economic growth, social capital and environmental effects

Spectacular growth in the use of the Internet has revolutionised many aspects of nations and human lives, including the key pillars of sustainable development such as economic, social and environmental aspects, among others. However, such phenomenal growth in the use of this enabling technology has also led to different forms of social inequalities, popularly known as ‘digital divide’. However, it is not merely the access divide that haunts the digital landscapes of the world today. With the rapid diffusion of the Internet technology, other forms of divide resulting from various factors such as age, education, speed and e-skills are emerging as potential threats to achieving the expected benefits from this general purpose technology. Empirical literature on the effects of the Internet support the view that digital divide potentially hampers the positive effects of the Internet. Currently, this is the central focus of the debate with regards to the potential economic, social and environmental effects of the Internet and the burning question is whether the Internet significantly impacts these three key parameters of sustainable development. This thesis seeks to answer this question through economic growth, social capital and environmental effects of the Internet – in the context of Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries and in Australia, in particular. To accomplish this aim, this study is guided by four research questions: i) Does Internet use affect economic growth in OECD countries, and in Australia, in particular? ii) Does Internet use affect social capital in OECD countries and in Australia and regional Australia, in particular? iii) Does Internet use have any effect on electricity consumption in OECD countries, and in Australia, in particular? and iv) Does Internet use have any effect on CO2 emissions in OECD countries, and in Australia, in particular? In order to addressing these research questions, this study uses panel macro data for OECD countries, annual time series macro data for Australia, and quantitative survey data from regional Australia. Secondary data are obtained from the World Development Indicators Database of the World Bank. Data on social capital are gathered from the World Values Survey. An advanced panel data econometric estimation technique – the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) regression technique – is applied for panel data analysis, while the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is used for analysis of time series data. Summated scale method is applied to quantify the social capital variable and multivariate regression technique is employed to examine the Internet–social capital nexus at a regional level. This PhD by publication thesis consists of seven chapters. The Introduction and Conclusions are presented in Chapter one and Chapter seven, respectively. A total of nine research outputs delivered by this research are presented in the remaining five chapters. Research question one is addressed in paper one and paper two. Research question two is addressed in papers three, four and five. Papers six and seven deal with research question three while research question four is addressed in papers eight and nine. Paper one and paper two examine economic growth effects of the Internet for OECD countries and for Australia respectively. In addition to enriching the existing literature on Internet-growth association, these two papers make a contribution by identifying the weaknesses of previous studies. Findings suggest that the Internet stimulates economic growth both for the panel of OECD countries and for Australia as well. Internet use data is analysed for the first time for Australia in paper two. To address research question two, the potential of the Internet in generating social capital is examined in papers three, four and five. Findings from both OECD panel and Australian time series investigations indicate that the Internet reduces social capital in the long run, while it slightly enhances social capital in the short run. Paper five analyses survey data to explore the relationship between the Internet and social capital in regional Australia. The survey data was collected from the Western Downs Region of Queensland. The social capital variable was constructed from five theoretically supported and statistically tested dimensions of social capital concept using summated scale method. These dimensions are; bonding social capital, bridging social capital, trust, neighbourhood effects and community engagement. This is believed to be a novel contribution to the existing literature on social capital measurement which suffers from intense debate on the topic. This paper also provides a conceptual framework on Internet-social capital relationship that may be a useful guideline for similar studies in future in regional context. The key finding indicates a positive relationship between Internet use and social capital implying that Internet-enabled network connectivity stimulates social capital in regional Australia. Research questions three and four deal with the environmental effects of the Internet. Research question three is addressed in papers six and seven – these papers investigate the effect of Internet use on electricity consumption for a panel of OECD countries and for Australia, respectively. In both studies, the Internet is found to cause an increase in electricity consumption. Such findings enforced the development of research question four, which investigates the CO2 emissions effect of the Internet. This is addressed in papers eight and nine. Both investigations found that Internet use does not have any significant effect on CO2 emissions. In other words, the growth in Internet use is still environmentally sustainable for these countries. All of papers six, seven, eight and nine are believed to make important empirical contributions to the literature on the environmental effects of the Internet. The findings from these studies are expected to provide stimuli for future researchers to examine such effects for other regions and countries. The conceptual framework of this study is believed to be a contribution by itself as it studies the effects of the Internet in all three key aspects of sustainable development (economic, social and environmental). Also, the massive literature review of all the three areas will enable future researchers identify research gaps in a relatively easier way for further investigations. This study offers a number of policy recommendations. To ensure expected economic benefits from Internet use, it is recommended in paper one and paper two that demand-side issues – such as education and skills – need more attention from policymakers responsible for framing and revising digital divide policies. Despite mixed findings on the Internet-social capital relationship from papers three, four and five, the inclusion of the social capital issue in digital divide policy should not be ruled out in the process of ensuring long-run success in addressing the digital divide. To achieve energy efficiency gains from the Internet and to exploit its emissions abatement potential, ‘green Internet’ and ‘Internet for green’ are strongly recommended in papers six, seven, eight and nine in order to combat future negative environmental effects of this technology. Finally, the overall findings from the investigations undertaken by this thesis confirm that the growth in the use of the Internet contributes towards sustainable development for the OECD countries as well as for Australia in particular

The European consumer: United in diversity?.

The ongoing unification which takes place on the European political scene, along with recent advances in consumer mobility and communication technology, raises the question whether the European Union can be treated as a single market to fully exploit the potential synergy effects from pan-European marketing strategies. Previous research, which mostly used domain-specific segmentation bases, has resulted in mixed conclusions. In this paper, a more general segmentation base is adopted, as we consider the homogeneity in the European countries' Consumer Confidence Indicators. Moreover, rather than analyzing more traditional static similarity measures, we adopt the concepts of dynamic correlation and cohesion between countries. The short-run fluctuations in consumer confidence are found to be largely country specific. However, a myopic focus on these fluctuations may inspire management to adopt multi-country strategies, foregoing the potential longer-run benefits from more standardized marketing strategies. Indeed, the Consumer Confidence Indicators become much more homogeneous as the planning horizon is extended. However, this homogeneity is found to remain inversely related to the cultural, economic and geographic distances among the various Member States. Hence, pan-regional rather pan-European strategies are called for.Communication; Consumer confidence; Country; Dynamic correlation; Effects; European unification; European Union; Indicators; Management; Market; Marketing; Planning; Research; Similarity; Strategy; Technology;