Estimating components of ICT expenditure: a model-based approach with applicability to short time-series

Abstract

This paper develops a microeconomic model-based approach to forecast national information and communications technology expenditure that is helpful when only very short time-series are available. The model specification incorporates parameters for network effects and national e-readiness. Finally, the model allows for observed non-homotheticity and ‘noise’ found in sample data, with the latter attributed to country-specific influences.ICT forecasts; short time-series; microeconomic modeling