Learning to Predict with Highly Granular Temporal Data: Estimating individual behavioral profiles with smart meter data

Big spatio-temporal datasets, available through both open and administrative data sources, offer significant potential for social science research. The magnitude of the data allows for increased resolution and analysis at individual level. While there are recent advances in forecasting techniques for highly granular temporal data, little attention is given to segmenting the time series and finding homogeneous patterns. In this paper, it is proposed to estimate behavioral profiles of individuals' activities over time using Gaussian Process-based models. In particular, the aim is to investigate how individuals or groups may be clustered according to the model parameters. Such a Bayesian non-parametric method is then tested by looking at the predictability of the segments using a combination of models to fit different parts of the temporal profiles. Model validity is then tested on a set of holdout data. The dataset consists of half hourly energy consumption records from smart meters from more than 100,000 households in the UK and covers the period from 2015 to 2016. The methodological approach developed in the paper may be easily applied to datasets of similar structure and granularity, for example social media data, and may lead to improved accuracy in the prediction of social dynamics and behavior

A survey on Human Mobility and its applications

Human Mobility has attracted attentions from different fields of studies such as epidemic modeling, traffic engineering, traffic prediction and urban planning. In this survey we review major characteristics of human mobility studies including from trajectory-based studies to studies using graph and network theory. In trajectory-based studies statistical measures such as jump length distribution and radius of gyration are analyzed in order to investigate how people move in their daily life, and if it is possible to model this individual movements and make prediction based on them. Using graph in mobility studies, helps to investigate the dynamic behavior of the system, such as diffusion and flow in the network and makes it easier to estimate how much one part of the network influences another by using metrics like centrality measures. We aim to study population flow in transportation networks using mobility data to derive models and patterns, and to develop new applications in predicting phenomena such as congestion. Human Mobility studies with the new generation of mobility data provided by cellular phone networks, arise new challenges such as data storing, data representation, data analysis and computation complexity. A comparative review of different data types used in current tools and applications of Human Mobility studies leads us to new approaches for dealing with mentioned challenges

Characterizing Driving Context from Driver Behavior

Because of the increasing availability of spatiotemporal data, a variety of data-analytic applications have become possible. Characterizing driving context, where context may be thought of as a combination of location and time, is a new challenging application. An example of such a characterization is finding the correlation between driving behavior and traffic conditions. This contextual information enables analysts to validate observation-based hypotheses about the driving of an individual. In this paper, we present DriveContext, a novel framework to find the characteristics of a context, by extracting significant driving patterns (e.g., a slow-down), and then identifying the set of potential causes behind patterns (e.g., traffic congestion). Our experimental results confirm the feasibility of the framework in identifying meaningful driving patterns, with improvements in comparison with the state-of-the-art. We also demonstrate how the framework derives interesting characteristics for different contexts, through real-world examples.Comment: Accepted to be published at The 25th ACM SIGSPATIAL International Conference on Advances in Geographic Information Systems (ACM SIGSPATIAL 2017

Mining Heterogeneous Multivariate Time-Series for Learning Meaningful Patterns: Application to Home Health Telecare

For the last years, time-series mining has become a challenging issue for researchers. An important application lies in most monitoring purposes, which require analyzing large sets of time-series for learning usual patterns. Any deviation from this learned profile is then considered as an unexpected situation. Moreover, complex applications may involve the temporal study of several heterogeneous parameters. In that paper, we propose a method for mining heterogeneous multivariate time-series for learning meaningful patterns. The proposed approach allows for mixed time-series -- containing both pattern and non-pattern data -- such as for imprecise matches, outliers, stretching and global translating of patterns instances in time. We present the early results of our approach in the context of monitoring the health status of a person at home. The purpose is to build a behavioral profile of a person by analyzing the time variations of several quantitative or qualitative parameters recorded through a provision of sensors installed in the home

Functional Brain Imaging with Multi-Objective Multi-Modal Evolutionary Optimization

Functional brain imaging is a source of spatio-temporal data mining problems. A new framework hybridizing multi-objective and multi-modal optimization is proposed to formalize these data mining problems, and addressed through Evolutionary Computation (EC). The merits of EC for spatio-temporal data mining are demonstrated as the approach facilitates the modelling of the experts' requirements, and flexibly accommodates their changing goals

Using temporal abduction for biosignal interpretation: A case study on QRS detection

In this work, we propose an abductive framework for biosignal interpretation, based on the concept of Temporal Abstraction Patterns. A temporal abstraction pattern defines an abstraction relation between an observation hypothesis and a set of observations constituting its evidence support. New observations are generated abductively from any subset of the evidence of a pattern, building an abstraction hierarchy of observations in which higher levels contain those observations with greater interpretative value of the physiological processes underlying a given signal. Non-monotonic reasoning techniques have been applied to this model in order to find the best interpretation of a set of initial observations, permitting even to correct these observations by removing, adding or modifying them in order to make them consistent with the available domain knowledge. Some preliminary experiments have been conducted to apply this framework to a well known and bounded problem: the QRS detection on ECG signals. The objective is not to provide a new better QRS detector, but to test the validity of an abductive paradigm. These experiments show that a knowledge base comprising just a few very simple rhythm abstraction patterns can enhance the results of a state of the art algorithm by significantly improving its detection F1-score, besides proving the ability of the abductive framework to correct both sensitivity and specificity failures.Comment: 7 pages, Healthcare Informatics (ICHI), 2014 IEEE International Conference o