xFraud: Explainable Fraud Transaction Detection

At online retail platforms, it is crucial to actively detect the risks of transactions to improve customer experience and minimize financial loss. In this work, we propose xFraud, an explainable fraud transaction prediction framework which is mainly composed of a detector and an explainer. The xFraud detector can effectively and efficiently predict the legitimacy of incoming transactions. Specifically, it utilizes a heterogeneous graph neural network to learn expressive representations from the informative heterogeneously typed entities in the transaction logs. The explainer in xFraud can generate meaningful and human-understandable explanations from graphs to facilitate further processes in the business unit. In our experiments with xFraud on real transaction networks with up to 1.1 billion nodes and 3.7 billion edges, xFraud is able to outperform various baseline models in many evaluation metrics while remaining scalable in distributed settings. In addition, we show that xFraud explainer can generate reasonable explanations to significantly assist the business analysis via both quantitative and qualitative evaluations.Comment: This is the extended version of a full paper to appear in PVLDB 15 (3) (VLDB 2022

Graph Learning for Anomaly Analytics: Algorithms, Applications, and Challenges

Anomaly analytics is a popular and vital task in various research contexts, which has been studied for several decades. At the same time, deep learning has shown its capacity in solving many graph-based tasks like, node classification, link prediction, and graph classification. Recently, many studies are extending graph learning models for solving anomaly analytics problems, resulting in beneficial advances in graph-based anomaly analytics techniques. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive overview of graph learning methods for anomaly analytics tasks. We classify them into four categories based on their model architectures, namely graph convolutional network (GCN), graph attention network (GAT), graph autoencoder (GAE), and other graph learning models. The differences between these methods are also compared in a systematic manner. Furthermore, we outline several graph-based anomaly analytics applications across various domains in the real world. Finally, we discuss five potential future research directions in this rapidly growing field

Graph learning for anomaly analytics : algorithms, applications, and challenges

Anomaly analytics is a popular and vital task in various research contexts that has been studied for several decades. At the same time, deep learning has shown its capacity in solving many graph-based tasks, like node classification, link prediction, and graph classification. Recently, many studies are extending graph learning models for solving anomaly analytics problems, resulting in beneficial advances in graph-based anomaly analytics techniques. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive overview of graph learning methods for anomaly analytics tasks. We classify them into four categories based on their model architectures, namely graph convolutional network, graph attention network, graph autoencoder, and other graph learning models. The differences between these methods are also compared in a systematic manner. Furthermore, we outline several graph-based anomaly analytics applications across various domains in the real world. Finally, we discuss five potential future research directions in this rapidly growing field. © 2023 Association for Computing Machinery

Graph Mining for Cybersecurity: A Survey

The explosive growth of cyber attacks nowadays, such as malware, spam, and intrusions, caused severe consequences on society. Securing cyberspace has become an utmost concern for organizations and governments. Traditional Machine Learning (ML) based methods are extensively used in detecting cyber threats, but they hardly model the correlations between real-world cyber entities. In recent years, with the proliferation of graph mining techniques, many researchers investigated these techniques for capturing correlations between cyber entities and achieving high performance. It is imperative to summarize existing graph-based cybersecurity solutions to provide a guide for future studies. Therefore, as a key contribution of this paper, we provide a comprehensive review of graph mining for cybersecurity, including an overview of cybersecurity tasks, the typical graph mining techniques, and the general process of applying them to cybersecurity, as well as various solutions for different cybersecurity tasks. For each task, we probe into relevant methods and highlight the graph types, graph approaches, and task levels in their modeling. Furthermore, we collect open datasets and toolkits for graph-based cybersecurity. Finally, we outlook the potential directions of this field for future research

Enhancing Graph Neural Network-based Fraud Detectors against Camouflaged Fraudsters

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been widely applied to fraud detection problems in recent years, revealing the suspiciousness of nodes by aggregating their neighborhood information via different relations. However, few prior works have noticed the camouflage behavior of fraudsters, which could hamper the performance of GNN-based fraud detectors during the aggregation process. In this paper, we introduce two types of camouflages based on recent empirical studies, i.e., the feature camouflage and the relation camouflage. Existing GNNs have not addressed these two camouflages, which results in their poor performance in fraud detection problems. Alternatively, we propose a new model named CAmouflage-REsistant GNN (CARE-GNN), to enhance the GNN aggregation process with three unique modules against camouflages. Concretely, we first devise a label-aware similarity measure to find informative neighboring nodes. Then, we leverage reinforcement learning (RL) to find the optimal amounts of neighbors to be selected. Finally, the selected neighbors across different relations are aggregated together. Comprehensive experiments on two real-world fraud datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the RL algorithm. The proposed CARE-GNN also outperforms state-of-the-art GNNs and GNN-based fraud detectors. We integrate all GNN-based fraud detectors as an opensource toolbox: https://github.com/safe-graph/DGFraud. The CARE-GNN code and datasets are available at https://github.com/YingtongDou/CARE-GNN.Comment: Accepted by CIKM 202

Data Science for Finance: Targeted Learning from (Big) Data to Economic Stability and Financial Risk Management

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor in Information Management, specialization in Statistics and EconometricsThe modelling, measurement, and management of systemic financial stability remains a critical issue in most countries. Policymakers, regulators, and managers depend on complex models for financial stability and risk management. The models are compelled to be robust, realistic, and consistent with all relevant available data. This requires great data disclosure, which is deemed to have the highest quality standards. However, stressed situations, financial crises, and pandemics are the source of many new risks with new requirements such as new data sources and different models. This dissertation aims to show the data quality challenges of high-risk situations such as pandemics or economic crisis and it try to theorize the new machine learning models for predictive and longitudes time series models. In the first study (Chapter Two) we analyzed and compared the quality of official datasets available for COVID-19 as a best practice for a recent high-risk situation with dramatic effects on financial stability. We used comparative statistical analysis to evaluate the accuracy of data collection by a national (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention) and two international (World Health Organization; European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control) organizations based on the value of systematic measurement errors. We combined excel files, text mining techniques, and manual data entries to extract the COVID-19 data from official reports and to generate an accurate profile for comparisons. The findings show noticeable and increasing measurement errors in the three datasets as the pandemic outbreak expanded and more countries contributed data for the official repositories, raising data comparability concerns and pointing to the need for better coordination and harmonized statistical methods. The study offers a COVID-19 combined dataset and dashboard with minimum systematic measurement errors and valuable insights into the potential problems in using databanks without carefully examining the metadata and additional documentation that describe the overall context of data. In the second study (Chapter Three) we discussed credit risk as the most significant source of risk in banking as one of the most important sectors of financial institutions. We proposed a new machine learning approach for online credit scoring which is enough conservative and robust for unstable and high-risk situations. This Chapter is aimed at the case of credit scoring in risk management and presents a novel method to be used for the default prediction of high-risk branches or customers. This study uses the Kruskal-Wallis non-parametric statistic to form a conservative credit-scoring model and to study its impact on modeling performance on the benefit of the credit provider. The findings show that the new credit scoring methodology represents a reasonable coefficient of determination and a very low false-negative rate. It is computationally less expensive with high accuracy with around 18% improvement in Recall/Sensitivity. Because of the recent perspective of continued credit/behavior scoring, our study suggests using this credit score for non-traditional data sources for online loan providers to allow them to study and reveal changes in client behavior over time and choose the reliable unbanked customers, based on their application data. This is the first study that develops an online non-parametric credit scoring system, which can reselect effective features automatically for continued credit evaluation and weigh them out by their level of contribution with a good diagnostic ability. In the third study (Chapter Four) we focus on the financial stability challenges faced by insurance companies and pension schemes when managing systematic (undiversifiable) mortality and longevity risk. For this purpose, we first developed a new ensemble learning strategy for panel time-series forecasting and studied its applications to tracking respiratory disease excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. The layered learning approach is a solution related to ensemble learning to address a given predictive task by different predictive models when direct mapping from inputs to outputs is not accurate. We adopt a layered learning approach to an ensemble learning strategy to solve the predictive tasks with improved predictive performance and take advantage of multiple learning processes into an ensemble model. In this proposed strategy, the appropriate holdout for each model is specified individually. Additionally, the models in the ensemble are selected by a proposed selection approach to be combined dynamically based on their predictive performance. It provides a high-performance ensemble model to automatically cope with the different kinds of time series for each panel member. For the experimental section, we studied more than twelve thousand observations in a portfolio of 61-time series (countries) of reported respiratory disease deaths with monthly sampling frequency to show the amount of improvement in predictive performance. We then compare each country’s forecasts of respiratory disease deaths generated by our model with the corresponding COVID-19 deaths in 2020. The results of this large set of experiments show that the accuracy of the ensemble model is improved noticeably by using different holdouts for different contributed time series methods based on the proposed model selection method. These improved time series models provide us proper forecasting of respiratory disease deaths for each country, exhibiting high correlation (0.94) with Covid-19 deaths in 2020. In the fourth study (Chapter Five) we used the new ensemble learning approach for time series modeling, discussed in the previous Chapter, accompany by K-means clustering for forecasting life tables in COVID-19 times. Stochastic mortality modeling plays a critical role in public pension design, population and public health projections, and in the design, pricing, and risk management of life insurance contracts and longevity-linked securities. There is no general method to forecast the mortality rate applicable to all situations especially for unusual years such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In this Chapter, we investigate the feasibility of using an ensemble of traditional and machine learning time series methods to empower forecasts of age-specific mortality rates for groups of countries that share common longevity trends. We use Generalized Age-Period-Cohort stochastic mortality models to capture age and period effects, apply K-means clustering to time series to group countries following common longevity trends, and use ensemble learning to forecast life expectancy and annuity prices by age and sex. To calibrate models, we use data for 14 European countries from 1960 to 2018. The results show that the ensemble method presents the best robust results overall with minimum RMSE in the presence of structural changes in the shape of time series at the time of COVID-19. In this dissertation’s conclusions (Chapter Six), we provide more detailed insights about the overall contributions of this dissertation on the financial stability and risk management by data science, opportunities, limitations, and avenues for future research about the application of data science in finance and economy

Differentially Private Decoupled Graph Convolutions for Multigranular Topology Protection

Graph learning methods, such as Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) based on graph convolutions, are highly successful in solving real-world learning problems involving graph-structured data. However, graph learning methods expose sensitive user information and interactions not only through their model parameters but also through their model predictions. Consequently, standard Differential Privacy (DP) techniques that merely offer model weight privacy are inadequate. This is especially the case for node predictions that leverage neighboring node attributes directly via graph convolutions that create additional risks of privacy leakage. To address this problem, we introduce Graph Differential Privacy (GDP), a new formal DP framework tailored to graph learning settings that ensures both provably private model parameters and predictions. Furthermore, since there may be different privacy requirements for the node attributes and graph structure, we introduce a novel notion of relaxed node-level data adjacency. This relaxation can be used for establishing guarantees for different degrees of graph topology privacy while maintaining node attribute privacy. Importantly, this relaxation reveals a useful trade-off between utility and topology privacy for graph learning methods. In addition, our analysis of GDP reveals that existing DP-GNNs fail to exploit this trade-off due to the complex interplay between graph topology and attribute data in standard graph convolution designs. To mitigate this problem, we introduce the Differentially Private Decoupled Graph Convolution (DPDGC) model, which benefits from decoupled graph convolution while providing GDP guarantees. Extensive experiments on seven node classification benchmarking datasets demonstrate the superior privacy-utility trade-off of DPDGC over existing DP-GNNs based on standard graph convolution design

A Comprehensive Survey on Trustworthy Graph Neural Networks: Privacy, Robustness, Fairness, and Explainability

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have made rapid developments in the recent years. Due to their great ability in modeling graph-structured data, GNNs are vastly used in various applications, including high-stakes scenarios such as financial analysis, traffic predictions, and drug discovery. Despite their great potential in benefiting humans in the real world, recent study shows that GNNs can leak private information, are vulnerable to adversarial attacks, can inherit and magnify societal bias from training data and lack interpretability, which have risk of causing unintentional harm to the users and society. For example, existing works demonstrate that attackers can fool the GNNs to give the outcome they desire with unnoticeable perturbation on training graph. GNNs trained on social networks may embed the discrimination in their decision process, strengthening the undesirable societal bias. Consequently, trustworthy GNNs in various aspects are emerging to prevent the harm from GNN models and increase the users' trust in GNNs. In this paper, we give a comprehensive survey of GNNs in the computational aspects of privacy, robustness, fairness, and explainability. For each aspect, we give the taxonomy of the related methods and formulate the general frameworks for the multiple categories of trustworthy GNNs. We also discuss the future research directions of each aspect and connections between these aspects to help achieve trustworthiness

Banca, crédito e organização social : contributos para a sociologia dos mercados financeiros

Doutoramento em Sociologia Económica e das Organizaçõesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio