Einstein equations in the null quasi-spherical gauge III: numerical algorithms

We describe numerical techniques used in the construction of our 4th order evolution for the full Einstein equations, and assess the accuracy of representative solutions. The code is based on a null gauge with a quasi-spherical radial coordinate, and simulates the interaction of a single black hole with gravitational radiation. Techniques used include spherical harmonic representations, convolution spline interpolation and filtering, and an RK4 "method of lines" evolution. For sample initial data of "intermediate" size (gravitational field with 19% of the black hole mass), the code is accurate to 1 part in 10^5, until null time z=55 when the coordinate condition breaks down.Comment: Latex, 38 pages, 29 figures (360Kb compressed

Dynamical indicators for the prediction of bursting phenomena in high-dimensional systems

Drawing upon the bursting mechanism in slow-fast systems, we propose indicators for the prediction of such rare extreme events which do not require a priori known slow and fast coordinates. The indicators are associated with functionals defined in terms of Optimally Time Dependent (OTD) modes. One such functional has the form of the largest eigenvalue of the symmetric part of the linearized dynamics reduced to these modes. In contrast to other choices of subspaces, the proposed modes are flow invariant and therefore a projection onto them is dynamically meaningful. We illustrate the application of these indicators on three examples: a prototype low-dimensional model, a body forced turbulent fluid flow, and a unidirectional model of nonlinear water waves. We use Bayesian statistics to quantify the predictive power of the proposed indicators