FlowSort-GDSS:a novel group multi-criteria decision support system for sorting problems with application to FMEA

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a well-known approach for correlating the failure modes of a system to their effects, with the objective of assessing their criticality. The criticality of a failure mode is traditionally established by its risk priority number (RPN), which is the product of the scores assigned to the three risk factors, which are likeness of occurrence, the chance of being undetected and the severity of the effects. Taking a simple "unweighted" product has major shortcomings. One of them is to provide just a number, which does not sort failures modes into priority classes. Moreover, to make the decision more robust, the FMEA is better tackled by multiple decision-makers. Unfortunately, the literature lacks group decision support systems (GDSS) for sorting failures in the field of the FMEA. In this paper, a novel multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method named FlowSort-GDSS is proposed to sort the failure modes into priority classes by involving multiple decision-makers. The essence of this method lies in the pair-wise comparison between the failure modes and the reference profiles established by the decision-makers on the risk factors. Finally a case study is presented to illustrate the advantages of this new robust method in sorting failures

An advanced risk analysis approach for container port safety evaluation

Risk analysis in seaports plays an increasingly important role in ensuring port operation reliability, maritime transportation safety and supply chain distribution resilience. However, the task is not straightforward given the challenges, including that port safety is affected by multiple factors related to design, installation, operation and maintenance and that traditional risk assessment methods such as quantitative risk analysis cannot sufficiently address uncertainty in failure data. This paper develops an advanced Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) approach through incorporating Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Networks (FRBN) to evaluate the criticality of the hazardous events (HEs) in a container terminal. The rational use of the Degrees of Belief (DoB) in a fuzzy rule base (FRB) facilitates the implementation of the new method in Container Terminal Risk Evaluation (CTRE) in practice. Compared to conventional FMEA methods, the new approach integrates FRB and BN in a complementary manner, in which the former provides a realistic and flexible way to describe input failure information while the latter allows easy updating of risk estimation results and facilitates real-time safety evaluation and dynamic risk-based decision support in container terminals. The proposed approach can also be tailored for wider application in other engineering and management systems, especially when instant risk ranking is required by the stakeholders to measure, predict and improve their system safety and reliability performance

Use of evidential reasoning for eliciting bayesian subjective probabilities in human reliability analysis: A maritime case

Modelling the interdependencies among the factors influencing human error (e.g. the common performance conditions (CPCs) in Cognitive Reliability Error Analysis Method (CREAM)) stimulates the use of Bayesian Networks (BNs) in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA). However, subjective probability elicitation for a BN is often a daunting and complex task. To create conditional probability values for each given variable in a BN requires a high degree of knowledge and engineering effort, often from a group of domain experts. This paper presents a novel hybrid approach for incorporating the evidential reasoning (ER) approach with BNs to facilitate HRA under incomplete data. The kernel of this approach is to develop the best and the worst possible conditional subjective probabilities of the nodes representing the factors influencing HRA when using BNs in human error probability (HEP). The proposed hybrid approach is demonstrated by using CREAM to estimate HEP in the maritime area. The findings from the hybrid ER-BN model can effectively facilitate HEP analysis in specific and decision-making under uncertainty in general