Models and metaphors: complexity theory and through-life management in the built environment

Complexity thinking may have both modelling and metaphorical applications in the through-life management of the built environment. These two distinct approaches are examined and compared. In the first instance, some of the sources of complexity in the design, construction and maintenance of the built environment are identified. The metaphorical use of complexity in management thinking and its application in the built environment are briefly examined. This is followed by an exploration of modelling techniques relevant to built environment concerns. Non-linear and complex mathematical techniques such as fuzzy logic, cellular automata and attractors, may be applicable to their analysis. Existing software tools are identified and examples of successful built environment applications of complexity modelling are given. Some issues that arise include the definition of phenomena in a mathematically usable way, the functionality of available software and the possibility of going beyond representational modelling. Further questions arising from the application of complexity thinking are discussed, including the possibilities for confusion that arise from the use of metaphor. The metaphor of a 'commentary machine' is suggested as a possible way forward and it is suggested that an appropriate linguistic analysis can in certain situations reduce perceived complexity

DeepTransport: Learning Spatial-Temporal Dependency for Traffic Condition Forecasting

Predicting traffic conditions has been recently explored as a way to relieve traffic congestion. Several pioneering approaches have been proposed based on traffic observations of the target location as well as its adjacent regions, but they obtain somewhat limited accuracy due to lack of mining road topology. To address the effect attenuation problem, we propose to take account of the traffic of surrounding locations(wider than adjacent range). We propose an end-to-end framework called DeepTransport, in which Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) are utilized to obtain spatial-temporal traffic information within a transport network topology. In addition, attention mechanism is introduced to align spatial and temporal information. Moreover, we constructed and released a real-world large traffic condition dataset with 5-minute resolution. Our experiments on this dataset demonstrate our method captures the complex relationship in temporal and spatial domain. It significantly outperforms traditional statistical methods and a state-of-the-art deep learning method

A Study of Norm Formation Dynamics in Online Crowds

In extreme events such as the Egyptian 2011 uprising, online social media technology enables many people from heterogeneous backgrounds to interact in response to the crisis. This form of collectivity (an online crowd) is usually formed spontaneously with minimum constraints concerning the relationships among the members. Theories of collective behavior suggest that the patterns of behavior in a crowd are not just a set of random acts. Instead they evolve toward a normative stage. Because of the uncertainty of the situations people are more likely to search for norms. Understanding the process of norm formation in online social media is beneficial for any organization that seeks to establish a norm or understand how existing norms emerged. In this study, I propose a longitudinal data-driven approach to investigate the dynamics of norm formation in online crowds. In the research model, the formation of recurrent behaviors (behavior regularities) is recognized as the first step toward norm formation; and the focus of this study is on the first step. The dataset is the tweets posted during the Egyptian 2011 movement. The results show that the social structure has impact on the formation of behavioral regularities, which is the first step of norm formation. Also, the results suggest that accounting for different roles in the crowd will uncover a more detailed view of norm and help to define emergent norm from a new perspective. The outcome indicates that there are significant differences in behavioral regularities between different roles formed over time. For instance, the users of the same role tend to practice more reciprocity inside their role group rather than outside of their role. I contribute to theory first by extending the implications of current relevant theories to the context of online social media, and second by investigating theoretical implications through an analysis of empirical real-life data. In this dissertation, I review prior studies and provide the theoretical foundation for my research. Then I discuss the research method and the preliminary results from the pilot studies. I present the results from the analysis and provide a discussion and conclusion

Utilizing an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for overcrowding level risk assessment in railway stations

The railway network plays a significant role (both economically and socially) in assisting the reduction of urban traffic congestion. It also accelerates the decarbonization in cities, societies and built environments. To ensure the safe and secure operation of stations and capture the real-time risk status, it is imperative to consider a dynamic and smart method for managing risk factors in stations. In this research, a framework to develop an intelligent system for managing risk is suggested. The adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is proposed as a powerful, intelligently selected model to improve risk management and manage uncertainties in risk variables. The objective of this study is twofold. First, we review current methods applied to predict the risk level in the flow. Second, we develop smart risk assessment and management measures (or indicators) to improve our understanding of the safety of railway stations in real-time. Two parameters are selected as input for the risk level relating to overcrowding: the transfer efficiency and retention rate of the platform. This study is the world’s first to establish the hybrid artificial intelligence (AI) model, which has the potency to manage risk uncertainties and learns through artificial neural networks (ANNs) by integrated training processes. The prediction result shows very high accuracy in predicting the risk level performance, and proves the AI model capabilities to learn, to make predictions, and to capture risk level values in real time. Such risk information is extremely critical for decision making processes in managing safety and risks, especially when uncertain disruptions incur (e.g., COVID-19, disasters, etc.). The novel insights stemmed from this study will lead to more effective and efficient risk management for single and clustered railway station facilities towards safer, smarter, and more resilient transportation systems

Deep Learning for Crowd Anomaly Detection

Today, public areas across the globe are monitored by an increasing amount of surveillance cameras. This widespread usage has presented an ever-growing volume of data that cannot realistically be examined in real-time. Therefore, efforts to understand crowd dynamics have brought light to automatic systems for the detection of anomalies in crowds. This thesis explores the methods used across literature for this purpose, with a focus on those fusing dense optical flow in a feature extraction stage to the crowd anomaly detection problem. To this extent, five different deep learning architectures are trained using optical flow maps estimated by three deep learning-based techniques. More specifically, a 2D convolutional network, a 3D convolutional network, and LSTM-based convolutional recurrent network, a pre-trained variant of the latter, and a ConvLSTM-based autoencoder is trained using both regular frames and optical flow maps estimated by LiteFlowNet3, RAFT, and GMA on the UCSD Pedestrian 1 dataset. The experimental results have shown that while prone to overfitting, the use of optical flow maps may improve the performance of supervised spatio-temporal architectures