Big data in hotel revenue management: exploring cancellation drivers to gain insights into booking cancellation behavior

n the hospitality industry, demand forecast accuracy is highly impacted by booking cancellations, which makes demand-management decisions difficult and risky. In attempting to minimize losses, hotels tend to implement restrictive cancellation policies and employ overbooking tactics, which, in turn, reduce the number of bookings and reduce revenue. To tackle the uncertainty arising from booking cancellations, we combined the data from eight hotels’ property management systems with data from several sources (weather, holidays, events, social reputation, and online prices/inventory) and machine learning interpretable algorithms to develop booking cancellation prediction models for the hotels. In a real production environment, improvement of the forecast accuracy due to the use of these models could enable hoteliers to decrease the number of cancellations, thus, increasing confidence in demand-management decisions. Moreover, this work shows that improvement of the demand forecast would allow hoteliers to better understand their net demand, that is, current demand minus predicted cancellations. Simultaneously, by focusing not only on forecast accuracy but also on its explicability, this work illustrates one other advantage of the application of these types of techniques in forecasting: the interpretation of the predictions of the model. By exposing cancellation drivers, models help hoteliers to better understand booking cancellation patterns and enable the adjustment of a hotel’s cancellation policies and overbooking tactics according to the characteristics of its bookings.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

Hotel revenue management – a critical literature review

The paper presents a literature review of the main concepts of hotel revenue management (RM) and current state-of-the-art of its theoretical research. The article emphasises on the different directions of hotel RM research and is structured around the elements of the hotel RM system and the stages of RM process. The elements of the hotel RM system discussed in the paper include hotel RM centres (room division, F&B, function rooms, spa & fitness facilities, golf courses, casino and gambling facilities, and other additional services), data and information, the pricing (price discrimination, dynamic pricing, lowest price guarantee) and non-pricing (overbookings, length of stay control, room availability guarantee) RM tools, the RM software, and the RM team. The stages of RM process have been identified as goal setting, collection of data and information, data analysis, forecasting, decision making, implementation and monitoring. Additionally, special attention is paid to ethical considerations in RM practice, the connections between RM and customer relationship management, and the legal aspect of RM. Finally, the article outlines future research perspectives and discloses potential evolution of RM in future

Assessing accuracy predictors in megatrend qualitative forecasting in the hospitality and tourism industry

Plenty of literature on megatrends escapes the logic of validation. Most publications on forecasting apply quantitative methods and the use of qualitative forecasting is scarce especially in the Hospitality and Tourism (H&T) industry, which is so sensitive to macro level factors. Alongside this, it is surprising that studies that explore the accuracy of such predictions are scarce which hampers the capacity to improve forecasting techniques. With this in consideration, the main goal of this study was to uncover the potential predictors of accuracy in qualitative forecasting sources in H&T. In order to do so, we identified and selected a set of documents that used qualitative forecasting methods to predict trends in H&T for the 1998-2008 period, and devised an empirical study that puts to test the expected trends against the test of time. With a panel of 14 experts in H&T that indicated what occurred in the aforementioned period, we computed a weighted score of accuracy for each document and classified it according to four potential causal variables (Explicit methods, Number of cites, Multisource, and Multimethod, thought of as indicators of forecasting quality). The model was tested with a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fs/QCA) which indicated that clarifying the qualitative forecasting methods (Explicit) and having multiple sources (Multisource) are the main predictors of the qualitative forecasting sources’ accuracy in H&T.A maioria das publicações sobre previsão usam métodos quantitativos e a previsão de base qualitativa é escassa especialmente no sector da Hospitalidade e Turismo (H&T) que é tão sensível a fatores de nível macro. Em acréscimo, é surpreendente que os estudos que exploram a precisão de tais previsões sejam escassos, o que reduz a capacidade de melhorar as técnicas de previsão. Considerando isto, o principal objetivo deste estudo foi o de descobrir os potenciais preditores de precisão nas fontes de previsão qualitativa em H&T. Para o concretizar, identificámos e selecionámos um conjunto de documentos que usam métodos qualitativos de previsão para as tendências de H&T para o período de 1998-2008 e desenvolvemos um estudo empírico que põe à prova as tendências esperadas em relação ao teste do tempo. Com um painel de 14 peritos em H&T que indicaram o ocorrido no período mencionado calculámos um score ponderado de precisão para cada documento e classificámo-lo de acordo com quatro potenciais variáveis causais (métodos explícitos, número de citações, multi-fonte e multi-método, tidos como indicadores da qualidade da previsão). O modelo foi testado por via da análise comparada qualitativa de conjunto difuso (fs/QCA) que indicou que clarificar os métodos de previsão usados (explícito) e contar com várias fontes de informação (multi-fonte) são os principais preditores da precisão dos documentos que oferecem previsões qualitativas em H&T

Hotel revenue management: usingdata science to predict booking cancellations

In the hotel industry, demand forecast accuracy is highly impacted by booking cancellations. Trying to overcome loss, hotels tend to implement restrictive cancellation policies and employ overbooking tactics which in turn reduces the number of bookings and reduces revenue. To tackle the uncertainty arising from cancellations, models for the prediction of a booking's cancellation were developed. Data from hotels' reservations systems was combined with data from other sources (events, holidays, online prices/inventory, social reputation and weather). Despite data class imbalance, concept drift, and dataset shift problems, it was possible to demonstrate that to predict cancellations of bookings is not only possible but also accurate. Moreover, it helped to better understand what the cancellation drivers can be. In order to assess the models under real conditions, a prototype was developed for field tests allowing to evaluate how an automated machine learning system that predicts booking’s cancellations could be integrated into hotels' systems. The model's performance in a real environment was assessed, including the impact on the business. The prototype implementation enable an understanding of adjustments to be made in the models so that they could effectively work in a real environment, as well as fostered the creation of a new measure of performance evaluation. The prototype enabled hoteliers to act upon identified bookings and effectively decrease cancellations. Moreover, results confirmed that booking cancellation prediction models can improve demand forecast, allowing hoteliers to understand their net demand, i.e., current demand minus predicted cancellations.Na indústria hoteleira, a precisão da previsão da procura é altamente impactada pelos cancelamentos de reservas. Na tentativa de mitigar as consequências dos cancelamentos, os hotéis tendem a implementar políticas de cancelamento restritivas e táticas de "overbooking", o que, por sua vez, reduz o número de reservas e a receita. Para combater a incerteza decorrente dos cancelamentos, foram desenvolvidos modelos capazes de prever a probabilidade de cada reserva vir a ser cancelada. Neste desenvolvimento foram utilizados dados de oito sistemas de gestão de reservas de outros tantos hotéis, conjuntamente com dados de outras fontes (eventos, feriados, preços/inventário "online", reputação social e clima). Apesar dos problemas de desequilíbrio de classe de dados, desvio de conceito e variação de distribuição entre variáveis ao longo do tempo, foi possível demonstrar que prever cancelamentos de reservas não é apenas possível realizar, mas que é possível de fazer com elevada precisão. A elaboração dos modelos ajudou ainda a compreender os fatores que influenciam o cancelamento. Para avaliar os modelos em condições reais, foi desenvolvido um protótipo, o qual permitiu avaliar como um sistema automatizado baseado em aprendizagem automática para prever os cancelamentos de reservas pode ser integrado nos sistemas dos hotéis. Este protótipo permitiu ainda avaliar o desempenho dos modelos num ambiente real, incluindo o seu impacto na operação. A implementação possibilitou também compreender os ajustes a serem feitos aos modelos para que pudessem efetivamente trabalhar num ambiente real, bem como fomentou a criação de uma nova medida de avaliação de desempenho. O protótipo permitiu que os hoteleiros agissem sobre as reservas identificadas e efetivamente diminuíssem os cancelamentos. Para além disso, os resultados confirmaram que os modelos de previsão de cancelamento de reservas podem melhorar a previsão de procura, permitindo que os hoteleiros compreendam melhor a sua procura líquida, ou seja, a procura atual menos os cancelamentos previstos

The Future of the Internet III

Presents survey results on technology experts' predictions on the Internet's social, political, and economic impact as of 2020, including its effects on integrity and tolerance, intellectual property law, and the division between personal and work lives

Leveraging inter-tourists interactions via chatbots to bridge academia, tourism industries and future societies

Purpose – The tourism and hospitality sectors are experiencing radical innovation boosted by the advancements in Information and Communication Technologies. Increasingly sophisticated chatbots are introducing novel approaches, re-shaping the dynamics among tourists and service providers, and fostering a remarkable behavioral change in the overall sector. Therefore, the objective of this paper is two-folded: (1) to highlight the academic and industrial standing points with respect to the current chatbots designed/deployed in the tourism sector and (2) to develop a proof-of-concept embodying the most prominent opportunities in the tourism sector. Design/methodology/approach – This work elaborates on the outcomes of a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) and a Focus Group (FG) composed of experts from the tourism industry. Moreover, it presents a proof-of-concept relying on the outcomes obtained from both SLR and FG. Eventually, the proof-of-concept has been tested with experts and practitioners of the tourism sector. Findings – Among the findings elicited by this paper, we can mention the quick evolution of chatbot-based solutions, the need for continuous investments, upskilling, system innovation to tackle the eTourism challenges and the shift toward new dimensions (i.e. tourist-to-tourist-to-chatbot and personalized multi-stakeholder systems). In particular, we focus on the need for chatbot-based activity and thematic aggregation for next-generation tourists and service providers. Originality/value – Both academic- and industrial-centered findings have been structured and discussed to foster the practitioners' future research. Moreover, the proof-of-concept presented in the paper is the first of its kind, which raised considerable interest from both technical and business-planning perspectives

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases