Modelling the effect of learning and evolving rules on the use of common-pool resources

The extend to which common-pool resources are used and managed sustainably depends highly on incentives. Incentives influence the behaviour of individuals with respect to natural resource management and are determined by institutional arrangements comprising of formal and informal rules and markets. Changes in institutional arrangements will affect individual incentives and will therefore have an impact on resource use. In order to model the connections between institutional arrangements and the sustainable use of common-pool resources we must take into consideration the behaviour of individuals. Game-theoretical models appear to be an adequate modelling technique with which to assess the behaviour of individuals as well as the development of institutions with regards to common-pool resource regimes. The implementation of a game-theoretical framework in the form of an agent-based model appears to be a particularly appropriate tool with which to assess common-pool resource use regimes as such models enable the behaviour of different agents to be modelled as strategies. Traditionally with agent-based models, the strategies that agents pursue are given, with their expression endogenously determined by the set of rules which govern their behaviour. In this paper I focus on the implementation of mechanisms that also allow for rules to adapt endogenously. Such an approach will be applied to common-pool resource use in order to analyse the effect of rule changes.Institutional arrangements, agent-based modelling, learning, evolving rules

EU at the UN: The Effects of its New Rights Agenda on International Social Structures

This study seeks to determine the effect of the EU’s human rights agenda on the international institution of human rights, and the resulting effect on interstate society. To do this, the study examines the way the EU has promoted new norms of gender and the family at the ECOSOC third committee. Using Barry Buzan’s concept of vanguard theory of international social structures, it identifies a trend toward more contested norms that require coercive measures to promote as human rights. As illuminated by the vanguard theory, this is likely to result in the weakening human rights as an international institution, and precipitate a more pluralist international society

Optimal treatment allocations in space and time for on-line control of an emerging infectious disease

A key component in controlling the spread of an epidemic is deciding where, whenand to whom to apply an intervention.We develop a framework for using data to informthese decisionsin realtime.We formalize a treatment allocation strategy as a sequence of functions, oneper treatment period, that map up-to-date information on the spread of an infectious diseaseto a subset of locations where treatment should be allocated. An optimal allocation strategyoptimizes some cumulative outcome, e.g. the number of uninfected locations, the geographicfootprint of the disease or the cost of the epidemic. Estimation of an optimal allocation strategyfor an emerging infectious disease is challenging because spatial proximity induces interferencebetween locations, the number of possible allocations is exponential in the number oflocations, and because disease dynamics and intervention effectiveness are unknown at outbreak.We derive a Bayesian on-line estimator of the optimal allocation strategy that combinessimulation–optimization with Thompson sampling.The estimator proposed performs favourablyin simulation experiments. This work is motivated by and illustrated using data on the spread ofwhite nose syndrome, which is a highly fatal infectious disease devastating bat populations inNorth America

A breathless race for breathing space : Critical-analytical futures studies and the contested co-evolution of privacy imaginaries and institutions

Seeds for countless alternative futures already exist in anticipatory imaginaries and projects, and in possibilities for action. The novel approach of critical-analytical futures studies enables systematically studying anticipatory future-making processes and possibilities for agency. Critical-analytical futures studies develops the tradition of critical futures studies by incorporating an understanding of historical processes, causal mechanisms and negotiation among actors with future-oriented projects. Privacy in the digital age seems to be simultaneously a grand challenge and a relatively minor issue. Currently actors are breathlessly racing to ensure and define breathing space. In other words, they debate the meanings of privacy in a context where datafication seriously undermines privacy. This dissertation investigates the anticipatory co-evolution of imaginaries and institutions in making futures of privacy in Europe. Privacy protection is defined as a social institution at the intersection of three types of anticipatory practices: anticipatory institutional change, surveillance practices and anticipation in everyday life. By regulating surveillance, privacy rules maintain a societal future orientation that leaves space for creativity, imagination and human agency. The analytical framework is operationalised through four stages for qualitatively studying anticipatory institutional change: 1) historical context, 2) investigation of actor storylines, 3) analysis of deeper imaginaries, and 4) identification of latent future possibilities. This approach, developed in this dissertation, is termed CASIL (context, actor storylines, imaginaries and latents). The five original studies develop different aspects of the four methodological stages. The overall temporal landscape features two competing imaginaries, continued growth and tragic loss. Decision-makers in the European Union are navigating between these imaginaries and trying to maintain a positive role for Europe. The discussion section identifies numerous latent possibilities for promoting a systemic understanding of privacy as ‘breathing space for futures’. However, there is a strategic tradeoff for privacy advocates between increasing the regulation of surveillance practices and taming the roots of surveillance.Lukemattomien tulevaisuuksien siemenet ovat olemassa imaginaareissa ja toiminnan mahdollisuuksissa. Uusi kriittis-analyyttisen tulevaisuuksientutkimuksen lähestymistapa mahdollistaa tulevaisuuden tekemisen prosessien ja toimijuuden mahdollisuuksien tutkimisen. Kriittis-analyyttisessä tulevaisuuksientutkimuksessa kehitetään kriittistä tulevaisuuksientutkimusta tutkimalla historiallisia prosesseja, kausaalisia mekanismeja sekä toimijoiden ja projektien välistä neuvottelua. Digitaalisella aikakaudella yksityisyys näyttäytyy samanaikaisesti suurena yhteiskunnallisena haasteena ja verrattain vähäisenä kysymyksenä. Toimijat pyrkivät hengästyneesti määrittelemään hengitystilaa, eli he väittelevät yksityisyyden merkityksistä tilanteessa, jossa dataistuminen heikentää yksityisyyden edellytyksiä. Väitöskirjassa tutkitaan imaginaarien ja instituutioiden koevoluutiota yksityisyyden tulevaisuuden tekemisprosessissa Euroopassa. Yksityisyyden suoja määritellään yhteiskunnalliseksi instituutioksi, joka on kolmenlaisten antisipatoristen käytäntöjen välissä: antisipatorisen institutionaalisen muutoksen, valvontakäytäntöjen ja jokapäiväisen ennakoinnin. Yksityisyyssäännöt säätelevät valvontaa ja pitävät yllä luovuuden ja inhimillisen toimijuuden mahdollistavaa tulevaisuussuuntautumista. Antisipatorista institutionaalista muutosta tutkitaan laadullisesti nelivaiheisen kehikon avulla. Vaiheet ovat 1) historiallisen kontekstin huomioiminen, 2) toimijoiden tarinalinjojen tutkiminen, 3) taustalla olevien imaginaarien analysointi sekä 4) piilevien mahdollisuuksien tunnistaminen. Väitöskirjan viisi artikkelia käsittelevät kehikon eri osia. Kokonaiskuvassa voidaan nähdä kaksi kilpailevaa imaginaaria: jatkuva kasvu ja traaginen menetys. Euroopan unionin päätöksentekijät navigoivat näiden imaginaarien välillä ja yrittävät ylläpitää Euroopan positiivista roolia. Väitöskirjassa tunnistetaan piileviä mahdollisuuksia edistää systeemistä ymmärrystä yksityisyydestä, jossa yksityisyys nähdään ”hengitystilana tulevaisuuksille”. Yksityisyyden puolestapuhujat ovat strategisen valintatilanteen edessä, jossa toisella puolella on valvontakäytäntöjen sääntelyn lisääminen ja toisella puolella valvonnan juurien kesyttäminen

THE EPISTEMOLOGY OF AGRIBUSINESS METHODS OF AGRIBUSINESS SCHOLARSHIP

The prevailing agricultural economics epistemology of positivistic knowledge is argued to be inappropriate for the study of agribusiness. In contrast to the traditional arenas of agricultural economics study, agribusiness research should be designed to be (1) theory-building, rather than theory disconfirming, (2) capable of examining phenomena that are not readily quantifiable nor separable from context, and (3) capable of examining phenomena for which the underlying cause-and-effect structure is unstable or not given to general theory. Methods of phenomenological knowledge are much more appropriate to agribusiness research, and these methods should be adopted by agribusiness scholars and recognized for promotion and tenure purposes.Agribusiness,

Foreseeing the dynamics of strategy : an anticipatory systems perspective

The paper explores firms as complex anticipatory systems which construct dynamic strategic configurations based on anticipation of their future possible states within the competitive environment. We argue that firm’s performance depends on (a) its strategy making process based on anticipation, and (b) its managerial capabilities which effectuate the anticipatory process in the following four stages: search across anticipated “what-if” resource configurations, the articulation and conversion of their meaning, and the finding and evolution of strategic patterns and courses of action for environmental fit. We performed an in-depth exploratory study with a group of senior managers in a pharmaceutical firm to uncover diverse anticipatory capabilities. The study was based on the development and re-assessment of a product market strategy for a new drug launch without and with the use of a simulation-based learning environment. The results show the existence of heterogeneous anticipatory process, which we name search-articulate-find-evolve of alternative resource configuration sets, determining the managerial dynamic capabilities related particularly to managerial cognition and decision making. We propose anticipation enhanced by modelling and simulation can improve managers’ mental processes and help them to overcome cognitive limitations when dealing with real-world complexities

Civil Society Legitimacy and Accountability: Issues and Challenges

University education rarely focuses its attention and imagination on teaching students how to turn a vision into reality; how to design, develop, and lead social change organizations. The author co-created the Social Entrepreneurship Collaboratory (SE Lab) at Stanford University and then Harvard University as a model educational program designed to achieve this goal. The SE Lab is a Silicon Valley influenced incubator where student teams create and develop innovative pilot projects for US and international social sector initiatives. The lab combines academic theory, frameworks, and traditional research with intensive field work, action research, peer support and learning, and participation of domain experts and social entrepreneurship practitioners. It also provides students an opportunity to collaborate on teams to develop business plans for their initiatives and to compete for awards and recognition in the marketplace of ideas. Students in the SE Lab have created innovative organizations serving many different social causes, including fighting AIDS in Africa, promoting literacy in Mexico, combating the conditions for terrorism using micro-finance in the Palestinian territories, and confronting gender inequality using social venture capital to empower women in Afghanistan