Evolution of flowering strategies in Oenothera glazioviana: an integral projection model approach

The timing of reproduction is a key determinant of fitness. Here, we develop parameterized integral projection models of size-related flowering for the monocarpic perennial Oenothera glazioviana and use these to predict the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) for flowering. For the most part there is excellent agreement between the model predictions and the results of quantitative field studies. However, the model predicts a much steeper relationship between plant size and the probability of flowering than observed in the field, indicating selection for a 'threshold size' flowering function. Elasticity and sensitivity analysis of population growth rate u and net reproductive rate R0 are used to identify the critical traits that determine fitness and control the ESS for flowering. Using the fitted model we calculate the fitness landscape for invading genotypes and show that this is characterized by a ridge of approximately equal fitness. The implications of these results for the maintenance of genetic variation are discussed

Bibliometric Mapping of the Computational Intelligence Field

In this paper, a bibliometric study of the computational intelligence field is presented. Bibliometric maps showing the associations between the main concepts in the field are provided for the periods 1996–2000 and 2001–2005. Both the current structure of the field and the evolution of the field over the last decade are analyzed. In addition, a number of emerging areas in the field are identified. It turns out that computational intelligence can best be seen as a field that is structured around four important types of problems, namely control problems, classification problems, regression problems, and optimization problems. Within the computational intelligence field, the neural networks and fuzzy systems subfields are fairly intertwined, whereas the evolutionary computation subfield has a relatively independent position.neural networks;bibliometric mapping;fuzzy systems;bibliometrics;computational intelligence;evolutionary computation

Regression approaches for Approximate Bayesian Computation

This book chapter introduces regression approaches and regression adjustment for Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Regression adjustment adjusts parameter values after rejection sampling in order to account for the imperfect match between simulations and observations. Imperfect match between simulations and observations can be more pronounced when there are many summary statistics, a phenomenon coined as the curse of dimensionality. Because of this imperfect match, credibility intervals obtained with regression approaches can be inflated compared to true credibility intervals. The chapter presents the main concepts underlying regression adjustment. A theorem that compares theoretical properties of posterior distributions obtained with and without regression adjustment is presented. Last, a practical application of regression adjustment in population genetics shows that regression adjustment shrinks posterior distributions compared to rejection approaches, which is a solution to avoid inflated credibility intervals.Comment: Book chapter, published in Handbook of Approximate Bayesian Computation 201

Integral projection models for species with complex demography

Matrix projection models occupy a central role in population and conservation biology. Matrix models divide a population into discrete classes, even if the structuring trait exhibits continuous variation ( e. g., body size). The integral projection model ( IPM) avoids discrete classes and potential artifacts from arbitrary class divisions, facilitates parsimonious modeling based on smooth relationships between individual state and demographic performance, and can be implemented with standard matrix software. Here, we extend the IPM to species with complex demographic attributes, including dormant and active life stages, cross- classification by several attributes ( e. g., size, age, and condition), and changes between discrete and continuous structure over the life cycle. We present a general model encompassing these cases, numerical methods, and theoretical results, including stable population growth and sensitivity/ elasticity analysis for density- independent models, local stability analysis in density- dependent models, and optimal/ evolutionarily stable strategy life- history analysis. Our presentation centers on an IPM for the thistle Onopordum illyricum based on a 6- year field study. Flowering and death probabilities are size and age dependent, and individuals also vary in a latent attribute affecting survival, but a predictively accurate IPM is completely parameterized by fitting a few regression equations. The online edition of the American Naturalist includes a zip archive of R scripts illustrating our suggested methods

Which Surrogate Works for Empirical Performance Modelling? A Case Study with Differential Evolution

It is not uncommon that meta-heuristic algorithms contain some intrinsic parameters, the optimal configuration of which is crucial for achieving their peak performance. However, evaluating the effectiveness of a configuration is expensive, as it involves many costly runs of the target algorithm. Perhaps surprisingly, it is possible to build a cheap-to-evaluate surrogate that models the algorithm's empirical performance as a function of its parameters. Such surrogates constitute an important building block for understanding algorithm performance, algorithm portfolio/selection, and the automatic algorithm configuration. In principle, many off-the-shelf machine learning techniques can be used to build surrogates. In this paper, we take the differential evolution (DE) as the baseline algorithm for proof-of-concept study. Regression models are trained to model the DE's empirical performance given a parameter configuration. In particular, we evaluate and compare four popular regression algorithms both in terms of how well they predict the empirical performance with respect to a particular parameter configuration, and also how well they approximate the parameter versus the empirical performance landscapes