Semantically-informed Hierarchical Event Modeling

Prior work has shown that coupling sequential latent variable models with semantic ontological knowledge can improve the representational capabilities of event modeling approaches. In this work, we present a novel, doubly hierarchical, semi-supervised event modeling framework that provides structural hierarchy while also accounting for ontological hierarchy. Our approach consists of multiple layers of structured latent variables, where each successive layer compresses and abstracts the previous layers. We guide this compression through the injection of structured ontological knowledge that is defined at the type level of events: importantly, our model allows for partial injection of semantic knowledge and it does not depend on observing instances at any particular level of the semantic ontology. Across two different datasets and four different evaluation metrics, we demonstrate that our approach is able to out-perform the previous state-of-the-art approaches by up to 8.5%, demonstrating the benefits of structured and semantic hierarchical knowledge for event modeling.Comment: Accepted to *SEM 2023. Minor pagination differences in the appendix due to compiler difference

Adaptive learning for event modeling and pattern classification

It is crucial to detect, characterize and model events of interest in a new propulsion system. As technology advances, the amount of data being generated increases significantly with respect to time. This increase substantially strains our ability to interpret the data at an equivalent rate. It demands efficient methodologies and algorithms in the development of automated event modeling and pattern recognition to detect and characterize events of interest and correlate them to the system performance. The fact that the information required to properly evaluate system performance and health is seldom known in advance further exacerbates this issue. Event modeling and detection is essentially a discovery problem and involves the use of techniques in the pattern classification domain, specifically the use of cluster analysis if a prior information is unknown. In this dissertation, a framework of Adaptive Learning for Event Modeling and Characterization (ALEC) system is proposed to deal with this problem. Within this framework, a wavelet-based hierarchical fuzzy clustering approach which integrates several advanced technologies and overcomes the disadvantages of traditional clustering algorithms is developed to make the implementation of the system effective and computationally efficient. In another separate but related research, a generalized multi-dimensional Gaussian membership function is constructed and formulated to make the fuzzy classification of blade engine damage modes among a group of engines containing historical flight data after Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied to reduce the excessive dimensionality. This approach can be effectively used to deal with classification of patterns with overlapping structures in which some patterns fall into more than one classes or categories

Simulation Approach to Life-Data Queue Event Modeling

Simulation process provides a platform to model the real-life scenario from an experimental viewpoint. Simulation plays a key role in providing output that could be used to model the real-life. Queue patterns are studies from two perspective: (1) the stochastic method and (2) simulation technique. This paper spurs on discrete event simulation (DES) technique to investigate the assertions already made in queue model research works. Life-Data already collected from Johnson et al (2018) was used and simulation carried out using simmer package in R language. Findings validate the result of assertions made some research literatures. Keywords: Simulation, Queue, Discrete, Simmer, assertions DOI: 10.7176/CTI/8-0

A Relational Event Approach to Modeling Behavioral Dynamics

This chapter provides an introduction to the analysis of relational event data (i.e., actions, interactions, or other events involving multiple actors that occur over time) within the R/statnet platform. We begin by reviewing the basics of relational event modeling, with an emphasis on models with piecewise constant hazards. We then discuss estimation for dyadic and more general relational event models using the relevent package, with an emphasis on hands-on applications of the methods and interpretation of results. Statnet is a collection of packages for the R statistical computing system that supports the representation, manipulation, visualization, modeling, simulation, and analysis of relational data. Statnet packages are contributed by a team of volunteer developers, and are made freely available under the GNU Public License. These packages are written for the R statistical computing environment, and can be used with any computing platform that supports R (including Windows, Linux, and Mac).

Dynamic Modeling and Statistical Analysis of Event Times

This review article provides an overview of recent work in the modeling and analysis of recurrent events arising in engineering, reliability, public health, biomedicine and other areas. Recurrent event modeling possesses unique facets making it different and more difficult to handle than single event settings. For instance, the impact of an increasing number of event occurrences needs to be taken into account, the effects of covariates should be considered, potential association among the interevent times within a unit cannot be ignored, and the effects of performed interventions after each event occurrence need to be factored in. A recent general class of models for recurrent events which simultaneously accommodates these aspects is described. Statistical inference methods for this class of models are presented and illustrated through applications to real data sets. Some existing open research problems are described.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000349 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Self-Supervised Time-to-Event Modeling with Structured Medical Records

Time-to-event (TTE) models are used in medicine and other fields for estimating the probability distribution of the time until a specific event occurs. TTE models provide many advantages over classification using fixed time horizons, including naturally handling censored observations, but require more parameters and are challenging to train in settings with limited labeled data. Existing approaches, e.g. proportional hazards or accelerated failure time, employ distributional assumptions to reduce parameters but are vulnerable to model misspecification. In this work, we address these challenges with MOTOR (Many Outcome Time Oriented Representations), a self-supervised model that leverages temporal structure found in collections of timestamped events in electronic health records (EHR) and health insurance claims. MOTOR uses a TTE pretraining objective that predicts the probability distribution of times when events occur, making it well-suited to transfer learning for medical prediction tasks. Having pretrained on EHR and claims data of up to 55M patient records (9B clinical events), we evaluate performance after finetuning for 19 tasks across two datasets. Task-specific models built using MOTOR improve time-dependent C statistics by 4.6% over state-of-the-art while greatly improving sample efficiency, achieving comparable performance to existing methods using only 5% of available task data

Bayesian Point Event Modeling in Spatial and Environmental Epidemiology: A Review

This paper reviews the current state of point event modeling in spatial epidemiology from a Bayesian perspective. Point event (or case event) data arise when geo-coded addresses of disease events are available. Often this level of spatial resolution would not be accessible due to medical confidentiality constraints. However, for the examination of small spatial scales it is important to be capable of examining point process data directly. Models for such data are usually formulated based on point process theory. In addition, special conditioning arguments can lead to simpler Bernoulli likelihoods and logistic spatial models. Goodness-of-fit diagnostics and Bayesian residuals are also considered. Applications within putative health hazard risk assessment, cluster detection, and linkage to environmental risk fields (misalignment) are considered