Review of California Wildfire Evacuations from 2017 to 2019

Between 2017 and 2019, California experienced a series of devastating wildfires that together led over one million people to be ordered to evacuate. Due to the speed of many of these wildfires, residents across California found themselves in challenging evacuation situations, often at night and with little time to escape. These evacuations placed considerable stress on public resources and infrastructure for both transportation and sheltering. In the face of these clear challenges, transportation and emergency management agencies across California have widely varying levels of preparedness for major disasters, and nearly all agencies do not have the public resources to adequately and swiftly evacuate all populations in danger. To holistically address these challenges and bolster current disaster and evacuation planning, preparedness, and response in California, we summarize the evacuations of eleven major wildfires in California between 2017 and 2019 and offer a cross-comparison to highlight key similarities and differences. We present results of new empirical data we collected via an online survey of individuals impacted by: 1) the 2017 October Northern California Wildfires (n=79), 2) the 2017 December Southern California Wildfires (n=226), and 3) the 2018 Carr Wildfire (n=284). These data reveal the decision-making of individuals in these wildfires including choices related to evacuating or staying, departure timing, route, sheltering, destination, transportation mode, and reentry timing. We also present results related to communication and messaging, non-evacuee behavior, and opinion of government response. Using the summarized case studies and empirical evidence, we present a series of recommendations for agencies to prepare for, respond to, and recover from wildfires

Public Response to a Catastrophic Southern California Earthquake: A Sociological Perspective

This paper describes a hypothetical scenario of public response to a large regional earthquake on the southern section of the San Andreas Fault. Conclusive social and behavioral science research over decades has established that the behavior of individuals in disaster is, on the whole, controlled, rational, and adaptive, despite popular misperceptions that people who experience a disaster are dependent upon and problematic for organized response agencies. We applied this knowledge to portray the response of people impacted by the earthquake focusing on actions they will take during and immediately following the cessation of the shaking including: immediate response, search and rescue, gaining situational awareness through information seeking, making decisions about evacuation and interacting with organized responders. Our most general conclusion is that the actions of ordinary people in this earthquake scenario comprised the bulk of the initial response effort, particularly in those areas isolated for lengthy periods of time following the earthquake

Logistic Regression Analysis of Factors Affecting Travel Mode Choice for Disaster Evacuation

The relationships were analyzed among the factors affecting the travel mode choice between government vehicles and private vehicles used for the evacuation of people in areas experiencing floods and landslides. The relationships were developed using a utility function to predict the probability and proportion for selection of the travel mode in future evacuations based on binary logistic regression. Three models were developed using different analytical factors based on the survey data of a sample group of people in the Mae Pong watershed, Laplae district, Uttaradit province, Thailand. It was found that the factors affecting the selection of travel mode in all three models consisted of sex, household size, families with young members, education, car ownership, experienced a disaster, recognition of shelter location, safety of evacuees while evacuating, reaching the destination quickly, convenience of vehicle access, proportional family management for evacuation, ease of the evacuation procedures of mode, and difference between travel time and walking time to the assembly point. Models 1, 2, and 3 could predict with accuracies of 78.40, 73.46, and 75.30 percent, respectively

A review of traffic models for wildland-urban interface wildfire evacuation

Recent years have seen an increased prevalence of wildfires, some of which has spread into the wildland-urban interface and lead to large-scale evacuations. Large-scale evacuations gives rise to both logistical and traffic related issues. To aid in the planning and execution of such evacuations reliable modelling tools to simulate evacuation traffic are needed. Today no traffic model exists which is dedicated only to simulate wildfire evacuation in the wildland/urban interface. The aim of this thesis is to identify benchmark characteristics needed in such a model and review 12 existing models, both traffic models and evacuation models, and their potential usefulness in WUI wildfire scenarios. The thesis concludes that some models can be tuned to represent aspects of a WUI fire evacuation and that future research should focus on integrating traffic modelling with modelling of fire/smoke spread and pedestrian movement

Understanding residents’ capacities to support evacuated populations : A study of earthquake and tsunami evacuation for Napier Hill, Napier, Aotearoa New Zealand.

Due to a large regional subduction zone (the Hikurangi subduction zone) and localised faults, Napier City located on the East Coast of Aotearoa/New Zealand is vulnerable to earthquake and tsunami events. On feeling a long or strong earthquake people will need to evacuate immediately inland or to higher ground to avoid being impacted by a tsunami, of which the first waves could start to arrive within 20 minutes (based on the Hikurangi earthquake and tsunami scenario presented in Power et al., 2018). Napier Hill is one such area of higher land, and it is estimated that up to 12,000 people could evacuate there in the 20 minutes following a long or strong earthquake. To understand the capacity of Napier Hill residents to support evacuees, three focus groups were held with a diverse sample of residents from Napier Hill on 21 and 22 July 2019. A follow up email was sent to all participants a week after the focus groups, containing a link to a short six question survey, which was completed by 68 people, most of whom were additional to the focus group attendees. Data from the focus groups and the survey was analysed qualitatively using thematic analysis. The findings highlight that in general people were happy to host evacuees and offer support if they were in a position to do so. However, key issues in being able to offer support included the likely lack of resources available after a disaster, ranging from basic needs though to agency support. The research findings will directly inform Napier City Council and Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management Group’s planning for future readiness and response by providing valuable insights for evacuation planningfalseWellingtonHawke's Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management Grou

Multi-storey residential buildings and occupant’s behaviour during fire evacuation in the UK: Factors relevant to the development of evacuation strategies

Purpose – The paper aims to investigate human behaviour during fire evacuations in multistorey residential buildings through a focus on the challenges and obstacles that occupants face. Any variations in response behaviours that are relevant to the evacuation strategies/plans in the UK context of occupancy typical of multi-storey buildings in large cities. Design/methodology/approach – A literature review was conducted to identify the factors occupants face and also the decision-making of occupants regarding methods of egress. A mixed research method was adopted using interviews and a questionnaire survey. The findings from the interviews and survey are benchmarked against the information gathered from the literature review. Findings – The paper identifies various challenges that occupants face when evacuating a multi-storey residential building. In terms of the decision-making process, the research results evidence that occupants could be given more information on the evacuation procedures within their specific building. The paper also finds that occupants remain reluctant to use a lift during evacuation in fire event, irrespective of any signage clearly stating that is appropriate to do so in the context of modern lift technology. Originality/Value – This paper contributes to the body of knowledge available on the evacuation of multi-storey buildings located in large cities within the UK, outlining potential areas for future research, focused on providing an insight of the behavioural decisions made by the occupants make when evacuating a building in the event of a fire