Estimation of peak outflow in dam failure using neural network approach under uncertainty analysis

This paper presents two Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based models for the prediction of peak outflow from breached embankment dams using two effective parameters including height and volume of water behind the dam at the time of failure. Estimation of optimal weights and biases in the training phase of the ANN is analysed by two different algorithms including Levenberg—Marquardt (LM) as a standard technique used to solve nonlinear least squares problems and Imperialist Competitive Algorithm (ICA) as a new evolutionary algorithm in the evolutionary computation field. Comparison of the obtained results with those of the conventional approach based on regression analysis shows a better performance of the ANN model trained with ICA. Investigation on the uncertainty band of the models indicated that LM predictions have the least uncertainty band whilst ICA’s have the lowest mean prediction error. More analysis on the models’ uncertainty is conducted by a Monte Carlo simulation in which 1000 randomly generated sets of input data are sampled from the database of historical dam failures. The result of 1000 ANN models which have been analysed with three statistical measures including p-factor, d-factor, and DDR confirms that LM predictions have more limited uncertainty band

Evaluation of Harmony Search Optimization to Predict Local Scour Depth around Complex Bridge Piers

One of the main causes of bridge collapse may be flood flow scour near piers. Several experimental and local field investigations were carried out to study scour depth. However, existing empirical equations do not commonly provide accurate scour prediction due to the complexity of the scour process. Physical and economic considerations often lead to bridge foundation constructs which included a pier column based on a pile cap supported by an array of piles. Piers with this configuration are referred to as complex piers. A few studies have been done on complex bridge pier scour depth estimation. Such efforts may be classified into theoretical and empirical equations. This paper investigates local scour around complex bridge piers by using harmony search algorithm under clear water conditions. Statistical indices such as the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and bias were used to evaluate the performance of these methods. By designing laboratory tests, 82 experimental data points were measured by authors. Also 615 experimental data sets with the same measured experimental conditions were collected from published literature and used for optimization. The results show that the developed HS model can predict scour depth better than other equations according to statistical indices

Estimation of the Maximum Scour Depth at Bridge Pier under Effects of Debris Accumulations using NF-GMDH Model and Evolutionary Algorithms

Rivers accumulate huge amounts of floating debris including the trunk, branches and leaves during the floods, leading to increase the depth of local scour around bridge piers. A large number of the laboratorial and field studies have been performed to understand the mechanism of scouring phenomenon under floating debris. Over two past decades, different types of the artificial intelligence methods have been used to estimate the maximum scour depth around bridges piers. In this study, the Neuro-Fuzzy model based on group method data handling (NF-GMDH) was used to estimate the scour under effect of debris accumulations. The NF-GMDH network was developed using evolutional algorithms: genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and gravitational search algorithm (GSA). Parameters effective on the maximum scour depth included average velocity of upstream flow of the bridge pier, critical velocity of river bed sediments, depth of flow in section without debris, thickness of submerged debris, debris diameter, average particle size, pier diameter, and channel width. After training and experiencing each NF-GMDH models, the performances of each one was evaluated through statistical parameters. The results showed that the models proposed had better performance compared with emperical relationships. NF-GMDH-PSO (R=0.8413 and RMSE=0.37) and NF-GMDH-GA (R=0.8407 and RMSE=0.3640) had relatively similar performance. Finally, sensitivity analysis indicated that the ratio of pile diameter (D) to mean diameter of bed sediments (d50) has the most influence on determination of maximum scour depth

Particle swarm optimization model to predict scour depth around bridge pier

Scour depth around bridge piers plays a vital role in the safety and stability of the bridges. Existing methods to predict scour depth are mainly based on regression models or black box models in which the first one lacks enough accuracy while the later one does not provide a clear mathematical expression to easily employ it for other situations or cases. Therefore, this paper aims to develop new equations using particle swarm optimization as a metaheuristic approach to predict scour depth around bridge piers. To improve the efficiency of the proposed model, individual equations are derived for laboratory and field data. Moreover, sensitivity analysis is conducted to achieve the most effective parameters in the estimation of scour depth for both experimental and filed data sets. Comparing the results of the proposed model with those of existing regression-based equations reveal the superiority of the proposed method in terms of accuracy and uncertainty. Moreover, the ratio of pier width to flow depth and ratio of d50 (mean particle diameter) to flow depth for the laboratory and field data were recognized as the most effective parameters, respectively. The derived equations can be used as a suitable proxy to estimate scour depth in both experimental and prototype scales

Framework of damage detection in vehicle-bridge coupled system and application to bridge scour monitoring

Most vibration-based damage identification methods make use of measurements directly from bridge structures with attached sensors. However, the vehicle moving on the bridge can serve as both an active actuator and a response receiver. This dissertation aimed to develop new methodologies to eventually detect bridge damages such as scour using the dynamic response of the vehicle. To reach the final objective, a framework of damage identification was developed first, which gave a guideline on the three crucial steps for damage detection. An optimization method was proposed that combines the Genetic Algorithm (GA) and the First Order (FO) method. It has the advantages of the global and local algorithms and converges faster than the traditional method using any initial values. Secondly, a new methodology using the transmissibility of vehicle and bridge responses was developed to detect bridge damages. The transmissibility of a simplified vehicle-bridge coupled (VBC) system was analyzed theoretically and numerically to study the feasibility of this method. To obtain the transmissibility, two methods were proposed using two “static” vehicles on the bridge. Then, a tractor-trailer test system was designed to obtain reliable responses and extract bridge modal properties from the dynamic response of moving vehicles. The test vehicle consists of a tractor and two following trailers. The residual responses of the two trailers were used, which successfully eliminated the roughness and vehicle driving effect and extracted the bridge modal properties. This methodology was applied on a field bridge and revealed a good performance. Most previous studies of bridge scour focus on the scour causes instead of its consequences. Finally, in this dissertation the developed methodologies were applied to detect scour damage from the response of bridge and/or vehicles. The scour effect on a single pile was studied and methods of scour damage detections were proposed. A monitoring system using fiber optic sensors was designed and tested in the laboratory and is being applied to a field bridge. Finally, the scour effect on the response of the entire bridge and the traveling vehicle was also investigated under the bridge-vehicle-wave interaction, which in turn was used to detect the bridge scour