22,197 research outputs found
Nonparametric inference of doubly stochastic Poisson process data via the kernel method
Doubly stochastic Poisson processes, also known as the Cox processes,
frequently occur in various scientific fields. In this article, motivated
primarily by analyzing Cox process data in biophysics, we propose a
nonparametric kernel-based inference method. We conduct a detailed study,
including an asymptotic analysis, of the proposed method, and provide
guidelines for its practical use, introducing a fast and stable regression
method for bandwidth selection. We apply our method to real photon arrival data
from recent single-molecule biophysical experiments, investigating proteins'
conformational dynamics. Our result shows that conformational fluctuation is
widely present in protein systems, and that the fluctuation covers a broad
range of time scales, highlighting the dynamic and complex nature of proteins'
structure.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS352 the Annals of
Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
Building Loss Models
This paper is intended as a guide to building insurance risk (loss) models. A typical model for insurance risk, the so-called collective risk model, treats the aggregate loss as having a compound distribution with two main components: one characterizing the arrival of claims and another describing the severity (or size) of loss resulting from the occurrence of a claim. In this paper we first present efficient simulation algorithms for several classes of claim arrival processes. Then we review a collection of loss distributions and present methods that can be used to assess the goodness-of-fit of the claim size distribution. The collective risk model is often used in health insurance and in general insurance, whenever the main risk components are the number of insurance claims and the amount of the claims. It can also be used for modeling other non-insurance product risks, such as credit and operational risk.Insurance risk model; Loss distribution; Claim arrival process; Poisson process; Renewal process; Random variable generation; Goodness-of-fit testing
A spatial mixed Poisson framework for combination of excess-of-loss and proportional reinsurance contracts
In this paper a purely theoretical reinsurance model is presented, where the reinsurance contract is assumed to be simultaneously of an excess-of-loss and of a proportional type. The stochastic structure of the set of pairs (claim’s arrival time, claim’s size) is described by a Spatial Mixed Poisson Process. By using an invariance property of the Spatial Mixed Poisson Processes, we estimate the amount that the ceding company obtains in a fixed time interval in force of the reinsurance contract
Finish Them!: Pricing Algorithms for Human Computation
Given a batch of human computation tasks, a commonly ignored aspect is how
the price (i.e., the reward paid to human workers) of these tasks must be set
or varied in order to meet latency or cost constraints. Often, the price is set
up-front and not modified, leading to either a much higher monetary cost than
needed (if the price is set too high), or to a much larger latency than
expected (if the price is set too low). Leveraging a pricing model from prior
work, we develop algorithms to optimally set and then vary price over time in
order to meet a (a) user-specified deadline while minimizing total monetary
cost (b) user-specified monetary budget constraint while minimizing total
elapsed time. We leverage techniques from decision theory (specifically, Markov
Decision Processes) for both these problems, and demonstrate that our
techniques lead to upto 30\% reduction in cost over schemes proposed in prior
work. Furthermore, we develop techniques to speed-up the computation, enabling
users to leverage the price setting algorithms on-the-fly
Building Loss Models
This paper is intended as a guide to building insurance risk (loss) models. A typical model for insurance risk, the so-called collective risk model, treats the aggregate loss as having a compound distribution with two main components: one characterizing the arrival of claims and another describing the severity (or size) of loss resulting from the occurrence of a claim. In this paper we first present efficient simulation algorithms for several classes of claim arrival processes. Then we review a collection of loss distributions and present methods that can be used to assess the goodness-of-fit of the claim size distribution. The collective risk model is often used in health insurance and in general insurance, whenever the main risk components are the number of insurance claims and the amount of the claims. It can also be used for modeling other non-insurance product risks, such as credit and operational risk.Insurance risk model; Loss distribution; Claim arrival process; Poisson process; Renewal process; Random variable generation; Goodness-of-fit testing;
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