Reliability Modeling and Improvement of Critical Infrastructures: Theory, Simulation, and Computational Methods

This dissertation presents a framework for developing data-driven tools to model and improve the performance of Interconnected Critical Infrastructures (ICIs) in multiple contexts. The importance of ICIs for daily human activities and the large volumes of data in continuous generation in modern industries grant relevance to research efforts in this direction. Chapter 2 focuses on the impact of disruptions in Multimodal Transportation Networks, which I explored from an application perspective. The outlined research directions propose exploring the combination of simulation for decision-making with data-driven optimization paradigms to create tools that may provide stakeholders with optimal policies for a wide array of scenarios and conditions. The flexibility of the developed simulation models, in combination with cutting-edge technologies, such as Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL), sets the foundation for promising research efforts on the performance, analysis, and optimization of Inland Waterway Transportation Systems. Chapter 3 explores data-driven models for condition monitoring and prognostics, with a focus on using Deep Learning (DL) to predict the Remaining Useful Life of turbofan engines based on sequential sensor measurements. A myriad of approaches exist for this type of problems, and the main contribution for future efforts might be centered around combining this type of data-driven methods with simulation tools and computational methods in the context of network resilience optimization. Chapter 4 revolves around developing data-driven methods for estimating all-terminal reliability of networks with arbitrary structures and outlines research directions for data-driven surrogate models. Furthermore, the use of DRL for network design optimization and maximizing all-terminal network reliability is presented. This poses a promising research venue that has been extended to network reliability problems involving dynamic decision-making on allocating new resources, maintaining and/or improving the edges already in the network, or repairing failed edges due to aging. The outlined research presents various data-driven tools developed to collaborate in the context of modeling and improvement for Critical Infrastructures. Multiple research venues have been intertwined by combining various paradigms and methods to achieve this goal. The final product is a line of research focused on reliability estimation, design optimization, and prognostics and health management for ICIs, by combining computational methods and theory

A SYSTEMS RELIABILITY APPROACH TO MODELING OPERATIONAL RISKS IN COMPLEX ENGINEERED SYSTEMS

Since the beginning of the industrial revolution in the late 18th century, the cause of many serious accidents in hydrosystems engineering has shifted from natural causes to human and technology related causes as these systems get more complex. While natural disasters still account for a significant amount of human and material losses, man-made disasters are responsible for an increasingly large portion of the toll, especially in the safety critical domain such as Dam and Levee systems. The reliable performance of hydraulic flow-control systems such as dams, reservoirs, levees etc. depends on the time-varying demands placed upon it by hydrology, operating rules, the interactions among subsystem components, the vagaries of operator interventions and natural disturbances. In the past, engineers have concerned themselves with understanding how the component parts of dam systems operate individually and not how the components interact with one another. Contemporary engineering practices do not address many common causes of accidents and failures, which are unforeseen combinations of usual conditions. In recent decades, the most likely causes of failures associated with dams have more often had to do with sensor and control systems, human agency, and inadequate maintenance than with extreme loads such as floods and earthquakes. This thesis presents a new approach, which combines simulation, engineering reliability modeling, and systems engineering. The new approach seeks to explore the possibilities inherent in taking a systems perspective to modeling the reliability of flow-control functions in hydrosystems engineering. Thus, taking into account the interconnections and dependencies between different components of the system, changes over time in their state as well as the influence upon the system of organizational limitations, human errors and external disturbances. The proposed framework attempts to consider all the physical and functional interrelationships between the parts of the dam and reservoir, and to combine the analysis of the parts in their functional and spatial interrelationships in a unified structure. The method attempts to bring together the systems aspects of engineering and operational concerns in a way that emphasizes their interactions. The argument made in this thesis is that systems reliability approach to analyzing operational risks—precisely because it treats systems interactions—cannot be based on the decomposition, linear methods of contemporary practice. These methods cannot logically capture the interactions and feedback of complex systems. The proposed systems approach relies on understanding and accurately characterizing the complex interrelationships among different elements within an engineered system. The modeling framework allows for analysis of how structural changes in one part of a system might affect the behavior of the system as a whole, or how the system responds to emergent geophysical processes. The implementation of the proposed approach is presented in the context of two case studies of US and Canadian water projects: Wolf Creek Dam in Kentucky and the Lower Mattagami River Project in Northern Ontario

Maintainability of manned spacecraft for long duration flights, volume 2

Effects of hardware reliability and failure rates, skills, environmental factors, mission duration, and resupply potential on maintainability of manned spacecraft on long duration flight

RELIABILITY CENTERED MAINTENANCE (RCM) FOR ASSET MANAGEMENT IN ELECTRIC POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

The purpose of Maintenance is to extend equipment life time or at least the mean time to the next failure. Asset Maintenance, which is part of asset management, incurs expenditure but could result in very costly consequences if not performed or performed too little. It may not even be economical to perform it too frequently. The decision therefore, to eliminate or minimize the risk of equipment failure must not be based on trial and error as it was done in the past. In this thesis, an enhanced Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM) methodology that is based on a quantitative relationship between preventive maintenance (PM) performed at system component level and the overall system reliability was applied to identify the distribution components that are critical to system reliability. Maintenance model relating probability of failure to maintenance activity was developed for maintainable distribution components. The Markov maintenance Model developed was then used to predict the remaining life of transformer insulation for a selected distribution system. This Model incorporates various levels of insulation deterioration and minor maintenance state. If current state of insulation ageing is assumed from diagnostic testing and inspection, the Model is capable of computing the average time before insulation failure occurs. The results obtained from both Model simulation and the computer program of the mathematical formulation of the expected remaining life verified the mathematical analysis of the developed model in this thesis. The conclusion from this study shows that it is beneficial to base asset management decisions on a model that is verified with processed, analysed and tested outage data such as the model developed in this thesis

Extending Comprehensive Maritime Awareness to Disconnected Vessels and Users

After the attacks of 9/11, increased security became a national priority that resulted in a focus on National Maritime Security. Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) is an initiative developed by the Coast Guard, in partnership with the U.S. Navy and other agencies to increase awareness in the maritime domain in support of maritime security [Morgan and Wimmer, 2005]. The purpose of MDA is to generate actionable intelligence obtained via the collection, fusion and dissemination of information from U.S. joint forces, U.S. government agencies, international coalition partners and commercial entities. This actionable intelligence is the cornerstone of successful counterterrorist and maritime law enforcement operations and is critical to Maritime Security [Morgan and Wimmer, 2005]. The U.S. Navy, as a partner in the development and creation of MDA, has tasked its subordinate commands to identify and define capabilities to support this program. One effort sponsored is the Comprehensive Maritime Awareness (CMA) Joint Capabilities Technology Demonstration (JCTD) [CMA Architecture Team, 2007]. This project supports the CMA JCTD efforts by proposing a deployable system to enable a disconnected vessel to connect to the CMA network. A disconnected user can be seen as a merchant ship, hospital ship or any vessel that is not currently connected to the CMA network. This project's proposed deployable system, as a subset to the CMA network, facilitates information sharing in support of humanitarian efforts worldwide.http://archive.org/details/extendingcompreh109456932N

Project Freebird: An orbital transfer vehicle

Freebird is a space-based orbital transfer vehicle designed to repair and deorbit orbital assets. Freebird is based at International Space Station Alpha (ISSA) at an inclination of 51.6 deg and is capable of three types of missions: crewed and teleoperated LEO missions, and extended robotic missions. In a crewed local configuration, the vehicle can visit inclinations between 30.8 deg and 72.4 deg at altitudes close to 390 km. Adding extra fuel tanks extends this range of inclination up to 84.9 deg and down to 18.3 deg. Furthermore, removing the crew module, using the vehicle in a teleoperated manner, and operating with extra fuel tanks allows missions to polar and geosynchronous orbits. To allow for mission flexibility, the vehicle was designed in a semimodular configuration. The major system components include a crew module, a 'smart box' (which contains command, communications, guidance, and navigation equipment), a propulsion pack, extra fuel tanks, and a vehicle storage facility (VSF) for storage purposes. To minimize risk as well as development time and cost, the vehicle was designed using only proven technology or technology which is expected to be flight-qualified in time for the intended launch date of 2002. And, because Freebird carries crew and operates near the space station, it must meet or exceed the NASA reliability standard of 0.994, as well as other standard requirements for such vehicles. The Freebird program was conceived and designed as a way to provide important and currently unavailable satellite repair and replacement services of a value equal to or exceeding operational costs

Technology for large space systems: A special bibliography with indexes (supplement 04)

This bibliography lists 259 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system between July 1, 1980 and December 31, 1980. Its purpose is to provide information to the researcher, manager, and designer in technology development and mission design in the area of the Large Space Systems Technology Program. Subject matter is grouped according to systems, interactive analysis and design. Structural concepts, control systems, electronics, advanced materials, assembly concepts, propulsion, solar power satellite systems, and flight experiments

Modèles de fiabilité et de maintenance prédictive de systèmes sujets à des défaillances interactives

RÉSUMÉ: L’interaction des défaillances est une thématique qui prend une ampleur considérable dans le monde de la recherche industrielle moderne. Les systèmes sont de plus en plus complexes et leurs fonctionnements et défaillances sur le long terme sont sujets à diverses sources d’influence internes et externes. Les actifs physiques en particulier sont soumis à l’impact du temps, de l’environnement et du rythme de leur utilisation. Connaître ces sources d’influence n’est pas suffisant car il importe de comprendre quelles sont les relations qui les lient afin de planifier de façon efficiente la maintenance des actifs. En effet, cette dernière peut s’avérer très couteuse et sa mauvaise planification peut conduire à l’utilisation de systèmes dangereux pouvant engendrer des évènements catastrophiques. La fiabilité est un vaste domaine. Elle propose une large panoplie de modèles mathématiques qui permettent de prédire le fonctionnement et les défaillances des actifs physiques. Ceci dit, les concepts des modèles les plus appliqués à ce jour se basent sur des hypothèses parfois simplistes et occultent bien souvent certaines relations de dépendances qui régissent un système. L’interaction des défaillances dans le cadre des dépendances stochastiques est abordée par de nombreux travaux de recherches. Par contre, la compréhension et l’implémentation de ces travaux demeurent un défi pour les spécialistes en maintenance qui ont besoin de modèles réalistes pour une maintenance préventive efficace. Cette thèse traite de la fiabilité et la maintenance prédictive des actifs physiques en exploitation et sujets à divers modes de défaillance interactifs. Elle établit avant tout l’importance d’accorder une attention particulière à l’interaction des défaillances dans le domaine de la fiabilité et de la maintenance. Dans une revue de littérature, les concepts et les méthodes de modélisation et d’optimisation en fiabilité et en maintenance préventive sont présentés. Les divers types de dépendances dans un système sont discutés. Un cas d’application, à savoir celui des ponceaux en béton, est proposé. Les travaux entrepris par la suite fournissent avant tout un cadre pour la modélisation de la fiabilité incluant l’interaction des défaillances. A cette fin, une étude comparative des modèles existants les plus pertinents est effectuée de points de vue conceptuel, méthodologique et applicatif. Le cadre étant défini, un modèle basé sur les chocs extrêmes et les chaînes de Markov est construit afin de valoriser le caractère séquentiel des défaillances interactives. Cette proposition est améliorée pour prendre en compte la dégradation du système. Une stratégie de maintenance prédictive est conséquemment développée. Toutes ces approches sont appliquées à un ensemble de ponceaux en béton observés sur plusieurs années. Cela permet d’expliquer les dépendances entre l’occurrence de déplacements et l’occurrence de fissures dans une structure. Tous ces concepts et résultats sont finalement discutés afin de déterminer des perspectives réalistes pour une étude approfondie de l’interactivité d’un point de vue fiabiliste et dans un but stratégique pour la planification de la maintenance.----------ABSTRACT: Failure interaction is a subject gaining growing attention in the world of modern industrial research. Systems are becoming increasingly complex. Their life cycles are subject to various internal and external influences. Physical assets in particular are impacted by time, environment and usage. Knowing these sources of influence is not enough. Indeed, it is important to understand the relationships between them in order to plan effectively for the maintenance of assets. Maintenance can be quite expensive. Thus, poor planning can lead to dangerous systems that could cause catastrophic events. Reliability engineering offers a wide range of mathematical models to predict failures. That being said, the concepts of the most widely applied models in the industry are often based on simplistic assumptions and tend to overlook certain dependencies within a system. Failure interaction in the context of stochastic dependencies is largely addressed in the literature. However, understanding and implementing the proposed approaches remains a challenge for maintenance specialists that need realistic models for efficient maintenance planning. This thesis focuses on the reliability and predictive maintenance of physical assets subject to interactive failure modes. First of all, it emphasizes the importance of paying particular attention to failure interaction. In a literature review, the concepts and methods for modeling and optimizing reliability and preventive maintenance are presented. The diverse dependencies in a system are discussed. A case study is proposed, namely concrete culverts. Subsequently, the research provides a framework for modeling reliability that integrates the interaction of failures. To this end, the most relevant models in the literature are comparatively studied from a conceptual, methodological and applicative point of view. In the defined framework, a model based on extreme shocks and Markov processes is built in order to represent the sequential nature of interactive failures. This approach is extended to take into account the natural degradation of a system. A predictive maintenance strategy is consequently developed. All these models are applied to a set of concrete culverts observed over several years. The dependences between the occurrence of displacements and the occurrence of cracks in a structure are explained through these approaches. Finally, these concepts and results are discussed in order to determine realistic perspectives for in-depth studies of the impact of failure interaction on reliability and for strategic maintenance plannin

Advanced Manned Launch System (AMLS) study

To assure national leadership in space operations and exploration in the future, NASA must be able to provide cost effective and operationally efficient space transportation. Several NASA studies and the joint NASA/DoD Space Transportation Architecture Studies (STAS) have shown the need for a multi-vehicle space transportation system with designs driven by enhanced operations and low costs. NASA is currently studying an advanced manned launch system (AMLS) approach to transport crew and cargo to the Space Station Freedom. Several single and multiple stage systems from air-breathing to all-rocket concepts are being examined in a series of studies potential replacements for the Space Shuttle launch system in the 2000-2010 time frame. Rockwell International Corporation, under contract to the NASA Langley Research Center, has analyzed a two-stage all-rocket concept to determine whether this class of vehicles is appropriate for the AMLS function. The results of the pre-phase A study are discussed