43,643 research outputs found
An Unsupervised Method for Estimating the Global Horizontal Irradiance from Photovoltaic Power Measurements
In this paper, we present a method to determine the global horizontal
irradiance (GHI) from the power measurements of one or more PV systems, located
in the same neighborhood. The method is completely unsupervised and is based on
a physical model of a PV plant. The precise assessment of solar irradiance is
pivotal for the forecast of the electric power generated by photovoltaic (PV)
plants. However, on-ground measurements are expensive and are generally not
performed for small and medium-sized PV plants. Satellite-based services
represent a valid alternative to on site measurements, but their space-time
resolution is limited. Results from two case studies located in Switzerland are
presented. The performance of the proposed method at assessing GHI is compared
with that of free and commercial satellite services. Our results show that the
presented method is generally better than satellite-based services, especially
at high temporal resolutions
An Integrated Multi-Time-Scale Modeling for Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Deep Learning
For short-term solar irradiance forecasting, the traditional point
forecasting methods are rendered less useful due to the non-stationary
characteristic of solar power. The amount of operating reserves required to
maintain reliable operation of the electric grid rises due to the variability
of solar energy. The higher the uncertainty in the generation, the greater the
operating-reserve requirements, which translates to an increased cost of
operation. In this research work, we propose a unified architecture for
multi-time-scale predictions for intra-day solar irradiance forecasting using
recurrent neural networks (RNN) and long-short-term memory networks (LSTMs).
This paper also lays out a framework for extending this modeling approach to
intra-hour forecasting horizons thus, making it a multi-time-horizon
forecasting approach, capable of predicting intra-hour as well as intra-day
solar irradiance. We develop an end-to-end pipeline to effectuate the proposed
architecture. The performance of the prediction model is tested and validated
by the methodical implementation. The robustness of the approach is
demonstrated with case studies conducted for geographically scattered sites
across the United States. The predictions demonstrate that our proposed unified
architecture-based approach is effective for multi-time-scale solar forecasts
and achieves a lower root-mean-square prediction error when benchmarked against
the best-performing methods documented in the literature that use separate
models for each time-scale during the day. Our proposed method results in a
71.5% reduction in the mean RMSE averaged across all the test sites compared to
the ML-based best-performing method reported in the literature. Additionally,
the proposed method enables multi-time-horizon forecasts with real-time inputs,
which have a significant potential for practical industry applications in the
evolving grid.Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables, under review for journal submissio
Multi-time-horizon Solar Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Network
The non-stationarity characteristic of the solar power renders traditional
point forecasting methods to be less useful due to large prediction errors.
This results in increased uncertainties in the grid operation, thereby
negatively affecting the reliability and increased cost of operation. This
research paper proposes a unified architecture for multi-time-horizon
predictions for short and long-term solar forecasting using Recurrent Neural
Networks (RNN). The paper describes an end-to-end pipeline to implement the
architecture along with the methods to test and validate the performance of the
prediction model. The results demonstrate that the proposed method based on the
unified architecture is effective for multi-horizon solar forecasting and
achieves a lower root-mean-squared prediction error compared to the previous
best-performing methods which use one model for each time-horizon. The proposed
method enables multi-horizon forecasts with real-time inputs, which have a high
potential for practical applications in the evolving smart grid.Comment: Accepted at: IEEE Energy Conversion Congress and Exposition (ECCE
2018), 7 pages, 5 figures, code available: sakshi-mishra.github.i
Bayesian rules and stochastic models for high accuracy prediction of solar radiation
It is essential to find solar predictive methods to massively insert
renewable energies on the electrical distribution grid. The goal of this study
is to find the best methodology allowing predicting with high accuracy the
hourly global radiation. The knowledge of this quantity is essential for the
grid manager or the private PV producer in order to anticipate fluctuations
related to clouds occurrences and to stabilize the injected PV power. In this
paper, we test both methodologies: single and hybrid predictors. In the first
class, we include the multi-layer perceptron (MLP), auto-regressive and moving
average (ARMA), and persistence models. In the second class, we mix these
predictors with Bayesian rules to obtain ad-hoc models selections, and Bayesian
averages of outputs related to single models. If MLP and ARMA are equivalent
(nRMSE close to 40.5% for the both), this hybridization allows a nRMSE gain
upper than 14 percentage points compared to the persistence estimation
(nRMSE=37% versus 51%).Comment: Applied Energy (2013
European air quality maps 2005 including uncertainty analysis
The objective of this report is (a) the updating and refinement of European air quality maps based on annual statistics of the 2005 observational data reported by EEA Member countries in 2006, and (b) the further improvement of the interpolation methodologies. The paper presents the results achieved and an uncertainty analysis of the interpolated maps and builds upon earlier reports from Horalék et al. (2005; 2007)
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