Ecosystem science capabilities required to support NOAA’s mission in the year 2020

The mission of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet our nation’s economic, social and environmental needs (NOAA, 2004). In meeting its marine stewardship responsibilities, NOAA seeks to ensure the sustainable use of resources and balance competing uses of coastal and marine ecosystems, recognizing both their human and natural components (NOAA, 2004). Authorities for executing these responsibilities come from over 90 separate pieces of Federal legislation, each with unique requirements and responsibilities. Few of these laws explicitly mandate an ecosystem approach to management (EAM) or supporting science. However, resource managers, the science community, and increasingly, the public, are recognizing that significantly greater connectedness among the scientific disciplines is needed to support management and stewardship responsibilities (Browman and Stergiou, 2004; 2005). Neither NOAA nor any other science agency can meet the increasing demand for ecosystem science products addressing each of its mandates individually. Even if it was possible, doing so would not provide the integration necessary to solve the increasingly complex array of management issues. This focus on the integration of science and management responsibilities into an ecosystem view is one of the centerpieces of the U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy’s report (USCOP, 2004), and the Administration’s response to that report in the U.S. Ocean Action Plan (CEQ, 2004). (PDF contains 100 pages

Building Strong for Tomorrow: Recommendations for the Organizational Design of the NOAA Climate Service

The U.S. Congress asked an expert panel of the National Academy of Public Administration to assist NOAA with a study and analysis of organizational options for a Climate Service within NOAA. Further, NOAA formally asked the Panel to provide an independent assessment of how NOAA should organize its climate capabilities and make recommendations for a Climate Service line office structure that would integrate NOAA's climate science and research with service delivery.Main FindingsThe Panel strongly supports the creation of a Climate Service to be established as a line office within NOAA.The Panel concluded that a NOAA Climate Service, properly configured and implemented, would be uniquely qualified to serve the public and private sectors as a lead federal agency for climate research and services, and to provide an ongoing accessible, authoritative clearinghouse for all federal science and services related to climate.The report also includes the Panel's observations and recommendations regarding the larger federal climate enterprise, key elements of support needed by the NOAA Climate Service and the importance to the new organization of a clear strategic plan and a comprehensive implementation plan. Additionally, the Panel offered observations about institutional change management in the federal sector, identified several management recommendations for implementation and addressed operational priorities and budget challenges

Developing Infrastructure Adaptation Pathways to Combat Hurricane Intensification: A Coupled Storm Simulation and Economic Modeling Framework for Coastal Installations

Climate change projections suggest intensification of extreme weather events, including hurricanes, is expected throughout the 21st century. This will lead to increased destruction for coastal military bases unless infrastructure resiliency and adaptation measures are implemented. This research focuses on examining the simulation of probabilistic, climate-intensified hurricane events at Eglin Air Force Base. FEMA Hazus models are combined with climate projections for wind Intensity, tide, and sea-level rise to produce an assessment of losses to the installation. Damage estimates and hurricane intensity outputs are downscaled to the facility-level so that climate adaptation signals can be identified. The facility losses and climate signals are used as inputs for a dynamic adaptation pathway model. Utilizing a variety of infrastructure investment strategies, the pathway model is used to calculate the expected benefits, risks, and costs associated with adaptation. Such pathways can be used to inform campus and installation master plans and are vital to reducing coastal bases vulnerability to future hurricane events

Federal Research and Development Funding: FY2009

In February 2008, President Bush proposed total research and development (R&D) funding of $147.0 billion in his FY2009 budget request to Congress, a$3.9 billion (2.7%) increase over the estimated FY2008 level of $143.1 billion. President Bush’s request included$29.3 billion for basic research, up $847 million (3.0$27.1 billion for applied research, down $1.0 billion (-3.6$84.0 billion for development, up 1.6 billion (1.9%); and 6.5 billion for R&D facilities and equipment, up 2.5 billion (61.7%). In the absence of final action on the regular FY2009 appropriations bills, Congress passed H.R. 2638 (110th Congress), the Consolidated Security, Disaster Assistance, and Continuing Appropriations Act, 2009 (P.L. 110-329) which President Bush signed on September 30, 2008. This act provides FY2009 appropriations for the Department of Defense, Department of Homeland Security, and Military Construction and Veterans Affairs; continued funding for agencies not covered under these provisions at their FY2008 funding levels through March 6, 2009; and supplemental funding for disaster relief. The uncompleted regular appropriations bills considered by the 110th Congress expired with the beginning of the 111th Congress. On February 23, 2009, H.R. 1105, the Omnibus Appropriations Act, 2009 (P.L. 111-8), which provides specific FY2009 appropriations for the agencies covered under the continuing appropriations provisions of P.L. 110-329, was introduced in the House and passed two days later. With the Omnibus bill under consideration in the Senate, on March 6 Congress passed and President Obama signed H.J.Res. 38 (P.L. 111-6), extending the continuing appropriations provisions of P.L. 110-329 through March 11, 2009. On March 10, the Senate passed H.R. 1105 without amendment. President Obama signed the act on March 11. Additional funding for research and development was provided under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (H.R. 1), often referred to informally as “the stimulus bill.” H.R. 1 was passed by the House and Senate on February 13, and signed into law (P.L. 111-5) by President Obama on February 17. The act includes approximately $22.7 billion for R&D, facilities, equipment and related activities. For the past two fiscal years, federal R&D funding and execution has been affected by mechanisms used to complete the annual appropriations process—the year-long continuing resolution for FY2007 (P.L. 110-5) and the combining of 11 appropriations bills into the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2008 for FY2008 (P.L. 110-161). For example, FY2008 R&D funding for some agencies and programs was below the level requested by President Bush and passed by the House of Representatives and the Senate. Completion of appropriations after the beginning of each fiscal year also resulted in delays or cancellation of planned R&D and equipment acquisition. While the annual budget requests of incumbent Presidents are usually delivered to Congress in early February for the next fiscal year, the change of presidential administrations delayed the initial release of President Obama’s FY2010 budget until February 26, 2009. The director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, Peter R. Orzag, has testified that a more detailed version of the budget will be released in the spring

PICES Press, Vol. 21, No. 1, Winter 2013

•2012 PICES Science: A Note from the Science Board Chairman (pp. 1-6) ◾2012 PICES Awards (pp. 7-9) ◾GLOBEC/PICES/ICES ECOFOR Workshop (pp. 10-15) ◾ICES/PICES Symposium on “Forage Fish Interactions” (pp. 16-18) ◾The Yeosu Declaration, the Yeosu Declaration Forum and the Yeosu Project (pp. 19-23) ◾2013 PICES Calendar (p. 23) ◾Why Do We Need Human Dimensions for the FUTURE Program? (pp. 24-25) ◾New PICES MAFF-Sponsored Project on “Marine Ecosystem Health and Human Well-Being” (pp. 26-28) ◾The Bering Sea: Current Status and Recent Trends (pp. 29-31) ◾Continuing Cool in the Northeast Pacific Ocean (pp. 32, 35) ◾The State of the Western North Pacific in the First Half of 2012 (pp. 33-35) ◾New Leadership in PICES (pp. 36-39

Distributed Energy Resource Optimization Using a Software as Service (SaaS) Approach at the University of California, Davis Campus

Together with OSIsoft LLC as its private sector partner and matching sponsor, the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) won an FY09 Technology Commercialization Fund (TCF) grant from the U.S. Department of Energy. The goal of the project is to commercialize Berkeley Lab's optimizing program, the Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model (DER-CAM) using a software as a service (SaaS) model with OSIsoft as its first non-scientific user. OSIsoft could in turn provide optimization capability to its software clients. In this way, energy efficiency and/or carbon minimizing strategies could be made readily available to commercial and industrial facilities. Specialized versions of DER-CAM dedicated to solving OSIsoft's customer problems have been set up on a server at Berkeley Lab. The objective of DER-CAM is to minimize the cost of technology adoption and operation or carbon emissions, or combinations thereof. DER-CAM determines which technologies should be installed and operated based on specific site load, price information, and performance data for available equipment options. An established user of OSIsoft's PI software suite, the University of California, Davis (UCD), was selected as a demonstration site for this project. UCD's participation in the project is driven by its motivation to reduce its carbon emissions. The campus currently buys electricity economically through the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA). The campus does not therefore face compelling cost incentives to improve the efficiency of its operations, but is nonetheless motivated to lower the carbon footprint of its buildings. Berkeley Lab attempted to demonstrate a scenario wherein UCD is forced to purchase electricity on a standard time-of-use tariff from Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E), which is a concern to Facilities staff. Additionally, DER-CAM has been set up to consider the variability of carbon emissions throughout the day and seasons. Two distinct analyses of value to UCD are possible using this approach. First, optimal investment choices for buildings under the two alternative objectives can be derived. Second, a week-ahead building operations forecaster has been written that executes DER-CAM to find an optimal operating schedule for buildings given their expected building energy services requirements, electricity prices, and local weather. As part of its matching contribution, OSIsoft provided a full implementation of PI and a server to install it on at Berkeley Lab. Using the PItoPI protocol, this gives Berkeley Lab researchers direct access to UCD's PI data base. However, this arrangement is in itself inadequate for performing optimizations. Additional data not included in UCD's PI database would be needed and the campus was not able to provide this information. This report details the process, results, and lessons learned of this commercialization project

Progress in operational modeling in support of oil spill response

Following the 2010 Deepwater Horizon accident of a massive blow-out in the Gulf of Mexico, scientists from government, industry, and academia collaborated to advance oil spill modeling and share best practices in model algorithms, parameterizations, and application protocols. This synergy was greatly enhanced by research funded under the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI), a 10-year enterprise that allowed unprecedented collection of observations and data products, novel experiments, and international collaborations that focused on the Gulf of Mexico, but resulted in the generation of scientific findings and tools of broader value. Operational oil spill modeling greatly benefited from research during the GoMRI decade. This paper provides a comprehensive synthesis of the related scientific advances, remaining challenges, and future outlook. Two main modeling components are discussed: Ocean circulation and oil spill models, to provide details on all attributes that contribute to the success and limitations of the integrated oil spill forecasts. These forecasts are discussed in tandem with uncertainty factors and methods to mitigate them. The paper focuses on operational aspects of oil spill modeling and forecasting, including examples of international operational center practices, observational needs, communication protocols, and promising new methodologies