Risk based resilient network design

This paper presents a risk-based approach to resilient network design. The basic design problem considered is that given a working network and a fixed budget, how best to allocate the budget for deploying a survivability technique in different parts of the network based on managing the risk. The term risk measures two related quantities: the likelihood of failure or attack, and the amount of damage caused by the failure or attack. Various designs with different risk-based design objectives are considered, for example, minimizing the expected damage, minimizing the maximum damage, and minimizing a measure of the variability of damage that could occur in the network. A design methodology for the proposed risk-based survivable network design approach is presented within an optimization model framework. Numerical results and analysis illustrating the different risk based designs and the tradeoffs among the schemes are presented. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC

Measuring Human Systems Integration in Directed Energy Weapon Acquisition Programs

Directed energy weapons (DEW) are of interest to the armed forces as they search for more effective ways to deal with evolving threats. The development of these weapons has been ongoing for almost 40 years, despite only one operational fielding by the U.S. Navy in 2014. Some reasons for DEW’s lack of adoption by the services include cost overruns and unclear requirements. Early adoption of human systems integration (HSI) in the military’s acquisition process is shown to provide substantial cost savings over the life of the system. Quantifying the application of HSI within a DEW acquisition program is addressed through decision analysis using value-focused thinking (VFT). The VFT model helps program managers and HSI practitioners balance total system performance and cost of ownership. Knowledge gathered from expert elicitation was used to create the decision model consisting of objectives in a hierarchal format. The proposed VFT model is a beginning step that allows for an objective analysis of HSI efforts in a DEW acquisition program. Further work is required to make the model practical for use

Backlog Reduction in Housing Provision Process using Mixed Approach of DMAIC, SMART and AHP Methodologies

Abstract. To support its oil operation, IEC manages four camps which most of its facilities require significant repair, especially its housing complexes. Vacant houses with good condition only available in very limited numbers and were not enough to fulfill all housing requests. In the same time, recent business environment forced company to reduce operational expenditure in building maintenance. Limited numbers of vacant houses, limited budget for building maintenance and higher number of housing requests have created a long waiting list and high backlogs in housing assignment list. This research objective is to analyze the existing process of housing provision which has high backlogs in housing assignment list and to propose the intervention to improve it. Combination of DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control) and Decision Analysis methodologies will be used to explore and solve the issue. Based on the analysis performed, root causes of this problem are no proper prioritization tools in place, no dedicated personnel to enable the task, and outdated policy. Hence, the proposed solutions to solve the problem are: prioritization tools are developed and improved for housing renovation and housing assignment processes, dedicated person is assigned to manage housing provision process and internal housing policy is revised and updated. As the result, with strong support from Leadership and collaboration between cross-functional team, the backlogs in housing assignment list can be reduced to 0 (zero). However, improvement in housing renovation process is still needed, especially in reducing cycle time in perform renovation task.Keywords: DMAIC, Decision analysis, SMART, AHP, housing provisionAbstrak. Untuk mendukung kegiatan operasinya, IEC mengelola empat kamp yang sebagian besar fasilitasnya membutuhkan perbaikan, terutama kompleks perumahan. Rumah kosong dengan kondisi baik hanya tersedia dalam jumlah yang sangat terbatas dan tidak cukup untuk memenuhi semua permintaan perumahan yang ada. Di saat yang bersamaan, kondisi bisnis saat ini memaksa perusahaan untuk mengurangi biaya operasional untuk pemeliharaan bangunan. Terbatasnya jumlah rumah yang kosong, terbatasnya anggaran untuk pemeliharaan bangunan dan tingginya jumlah permintaan rumah telah menciptakan daftar antrian panjang dan backlog yang tinggi pada daftar penempatan perumahan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan analisis pada proses penyediaan perumahan saat ini yang memiliki backlog tinggi dalam daftar penempatan perumahan dan untuk mengusulkan intervensi untuk memperbaikinya. Kombinasi metodologi DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control) dan Analisis Keputusan akan digunakan untuk mengeksplorasi dan memecahkan masalah ini, Berdasarkan analisa yang dilakukan, akar dari masalah ini adalah tidak adanya alat prioritisasi yang layak, tidak adanya personil yang bertugas untuk melakukan pekerjaan tersebut dan kebijakan perusahaan yang tidak diperbarui. Oleh karena itu, solusi yang diusulkan untuk mengatasi masalah ini: alat prioritisasi dikembangkan dan ditingkatkan untuk proses renovasi dan penempatan perumahan, seseorang diberi tugas untuk mengelola proses penyediaan perumahan dan kebijakan internal perumahan direvisi dan diperbarui. Sebagai hasilnya, dengan dukungan kuat dari pimpinan perusahaan dan kolaborasi dari tim lintas fungsi, backlog di daftar penempatan perumahan dapat dikurangi menjadi 0 (nol). Namun, perbaikan proses renovasi perumahan masih diperlukan, terutama dalam mengurangi waktu dalam melakukan tugas renovasi.Kata kunci: DMAIC, analisis keputusan, SMART, AHP, penyediaan perumaha

Technology needs for high speed rotorcraft (3)

The spectrum of vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) type aircraft is examined to determine which aircraft are most likely to achieve high subsonic cruise speeds and have hover qualities similar to a helicopter. Two civil mission profiles are considered: a 600-n.mi. mission for a 15- and a 30-passenger payload. Applying current technology, only the 15- and 30-passenger tiltfold aircraft are capable of attaining the 450-knot design goal. The two tiltfold aircraft at 450 knots and a 30-passenger tiltrotor at 375 knots were further developed for the Task II technology analysis. A program called High-Speed Total Envelope Proprotor (HI-STEP) is recommended to meet several of these issues based on the tiltrotor concept. A program called Tiltfold System (TFS) is recommended based on the tiltrotor concept. A task is identified to resolve the best design speed from productivity and demand considerations based on the technology that emerges from the recommended programs. HI-STEP's goals are to investigate propulsive efficiency, maneuver loads, and aeroelastic stability. Programs currently in progress that may meet the other technology needs include the Integrated High Performance Turbine Engine Technology (IHPTET) (NASA Lewis) and the Advanced Structural Concepts Program funded through NASA Langley

Framework For Quantifying And Tailoring Complexity And Risk To Manage Uncertainty In Developing Complex Products And Systems

In recent years there has been a renewed interest in product complexity due its negative impact on launch performance. Research indicates that underestimating complexity is one of the most common errors repeated by new product development (NPD) teams. It was concluded that companies that successfully manage complexity can maintain a competitive advantage. This is particularly true of CoPS projects (Complex Products and Systems) which are defined as large-scale, high value, engineering intensive products and systems. Investment in CoPS projects continues to grow worldwide, with recent estimates placed at over $500B annually. In this research we present methods to improve the planning and coordination of complexity and risk in CoPS projects to support launch success. The methods are designed to be consistent with systems engineering practices which are commonly used in their development. The research proposes novel methods for the assessment, quantification, and management of development complexity and risk. The models are initiated from preliminary customer requirements so they may be implemented at the earliest point in the development process and yield the most significant cost savings and impact. The models presented are validated on a large-scale defense industry project and experimental case study example. The research demonstrates that development complexity and risk can be effectively quantified in the early development stages and used to align and tailor organizational resources to improve PD performance. The methods also provide the benefit of being implementable with little disruption to existing processes as they align closely with current industry practices

Life cycle cost modelling as an aircraft design decision support tool

This report summarizes the work that has been carried out as part of the FLAVIIR project, a 5 year research program looking at technologies for future unmanned air vehicles. A novel classification of aircraft product definition is utilised and a framework to estimate the life cycle cost of aircraft using the product definition is presented. The architecture to estimate the life cycle cost and the associated models are described.The acquisition costs are estimated using a hierarchical structure and a discrete simulation model is used to estimate the maintenance and operation costs. The acquisition cost model uses an object oriented approach with libraries of materials and processes integrated into the cost model. Risk analysis is performed to identify the important design parameters and uncertainty in the model. The acquisition cost model developed has the capability to estimate the costs of aircraft structures manufactured using metal-based materials as well as non-metal-based materials.The discrete event simulation model estimates the operation and maintenance costs of a fleet of aircraft using the mission characteristics, aircraft performance and the logistics data as input. The aircraft performance parameters are calculated by using aerodynamic analysis along with performance analysis models and the simulation model utilises a novel methodology to link aircraft performance with survivability analysis for estimating the maintenance costs.A framework is presented in which the cost models developed can be integrated into the conceptual design process to facilitate the comparison between different configurations. The usage of the life cycle cost framework as a decision support tool is outlined and three case studies are presented which include composites vs metals trade-off analysis, optimisation studies and web deployment for real time cost estimation. The novel contributions of this research are outlined and interesting avenues for future research that can be pursued are identified

System Qualities Ontology, Tradespace and Affordability (SQOTA) Project – Phase 4

This task was proposed and established as a result of a pair of 2012 workshops sponsored by the DoD Engineered Resilient Systems technology priority area and by the SERC. The workshops focused on how best to strengthen DoD’s capabilities in dealing with its systems’ non-functional requirements, often also called system qualities, properties, levels of service, and –ilities. The term –ilities was often used during the workshops, and became the title of the resulting SERC research task: “ilities Tradespace and Affordability Project (iTAP).” As the project progressed, the term “ilities” often became a source of confusion, as in “Do your results include considerations of safety, security, resilience, etc., which don’t have “ility” in their names?” Also, as our ontology, methods, processes, and tools became of interest across the DoD and across international and standards communities, we found that the term “System Qualities” was most often used. As a result, we are changing the name of the project to “System Qualities Ontology, Tradespace, and Affordability (SQOTA).” Some of this year’s university reports still refer to the project as “iTAP.”This material is based upon work supported, in whole or in part, by the U.S. Department of Defense through the Office of the Assistant of Defense for Research and Engineering (ASD(R&E)) under Contract HQ0034-13-D-0004.This material is based upon work supported, in whole or in part, by the U.S. Department of Defense through the Office of the Assistant of Defense for Research and Engineering (ASD(R&E)) under Contract HQ0034-13-D-0004

Design of an integrated airframe/propulsion control system architecture

The design of an integrated airframe/propulsion control system architecture is described. The design is based on a prevalidation methodology that uses both reliability and performance. A detailed account is given for the testing associated with a subset of the architecture and concludes with general observations of applying the methodology to the architecture

Value-Driven Enterprise Architecture Evaluation for the Joint Force Protection Advanced Security System

The U.S. military has placed a strong focus on the importance of operating in a joint environment, where capabilities and missions are shared between service components. Protecting U.S. forces is a major consideration in the joint environment. The Joint Force Protection Advanced Security System (JFPASS) architecture has been created to fill a critical gap in Joint Force Protection guidance for systems acquisition. The systems engineering (SE) field has made wide use of system architectures to represent complex systems. As fundamental SE principles become more widespread, analysis tools provide an objective method for the evaluation of the resulting architectural products. This study used decision analysis to develop a standardized, yet adaptable and repeatable model to evaluate the capabilities of the JFPASS for any installation or facility belonging to the United States Department of Defense (DoD). Using the Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) methods, a value hierarchy was created by consulting with subject matter experts. The resulting model, named Value-Driven Enterprise Architecture (VDEA) score, provides an analysis tool, which enables DoD decision-makers to use JFPASS architecture products to quickly and easily evaluate the value provided by the system; VDEA provides insight into the overall quality and capability of the system. Through the scoring and sensitivity analysis functions, capability gaps and potential improvements can be identified. Future studies in this area will provide a vehicle for rating not only operational level systems, but also individual functional projects against other alternatives

A Framework to Quantify Network Resilience and Survivability

The significance of resilient communication networks in the modern society is well established. Resilience and survivability mechanisms in current networks are limited and domain specific. Subsequently, the evaluation methods are either qualitative assessments or context-specific metrics. There is a need for rigorous quantitative evaluation of network resilience. We propose a service oriented framework to characterize resilience of networks to a number of faults and challenges at any abstraction level. This dissertation presents methods to quantify the operational state and the expected service of the network using functional metrics. We formalize resilience as transitions of the network state in a two-dimensional state space quantifying network characteristics, from which network service performance parameters can be derived. One dimension represents the network as normally operating, partially degraded, or severely degraded. The other dimension represents network service as acceptable, impaired, or unacceptable. Our goal is to initially understand how to characterize network resilience, and ultimately how to guide network design and engineering toward increased resilience. We apply the proposed framework to evaluate the resilience of the various topologies and routing protocols. Furthermore, we present several mechanisms to improve the resilience of the networks to various challenges