A proposal of a methodological framework with experimental guidelines to investigate clustering stability on financial time series

We present in this paper an empirical framework motivated by the practitioner point of view on stability. The goal is to both assess clustering validity and yield market insights by providing through the data perturbations we propose a multi-view of the assets' clustering behaviour. The perturbation framework is illustrated on an extensive credit default swap time series database available online at www.datagrapple.com.Comment: Accepted at ICMLA 201

Using Empirical Recurrence Rates Ratio For Time Series Data Similarity

Several methods exist in classification literature to quantify the similarity between two time series data sets. Applications of these methods range from the traditional Euclidean type metric to the more advanced Dynamic Time Warping metric. Most of these adequately address structural similarity but fail in meeting goals outside it. For example, a tool that could be excellent to identify the seasonal similarity between two time series vectors might prove inadequate in the presence of outliers. In this paper, we have proposed a unifying measure for binary classification that performed well while embracing several aspects of dissimilarity. This statistic is gaining prominence in various fields, such as geology and finance, and is crucial in time series database formation and clustering studies

Feature-based time-series analysis

This work presents an introduction to feature-based time-series analysis. The time series as a data type is first described, along with an overview of the interdisciplinary time-series analysis literature. I then summarize the range of feature-based representations for time series that have been developed to aid interpretable insights into time-series structure. Particular emphasis is given to emerging research that facilitates wide comparison of feature-based representations that allow us to understand the properties of a time-series dataset that make it suited to a particular feature-based representation or analysis algorithm. The future of time-series analysis is likely to embrace approaches that exploit machine learning methods to partially automate human learning to aid understanding of the complex dynamical patterns in the time series we measure from the world.Comment: 28 pages, 9 figure

Time Series Cluster Kernel for Learning Similarities between Multivariate Time Series with Missing Data

Similarity-based approaches represent a promising direction for time series analysis. However, many such methods rely on parameter tuning, and some have shortcomings if the time series are multivariate (MTS), due to dependencies between attributes, or the time series contain missing data. In this paper, we address these challenges within the powerful context of kernel methods by proposing the robust \emph{time series cluster kernel} (TCK). The approach taken leverages the missing data handling properties of Gaussian mixture models (GMM) augmented with informative prior distributions. An ensemble learning approach is exploited to ensure robustness to parameters by combining the clustering results of many GMM to form the final kernel. We evaluate the TCK on synthetic and real data and compare to other state-of-the-art techniques. The experimental results demonstrate that the TCK is robust to parameter choices, provides competitive results for MTS without missing data and outstanding results for missing data.Comment: 23 pages, 6 figure

Highly comparative feature-based time-series classification

A highly comparative, feature-based approach to time series classification is introduced that uses an extensive database of algorithms to extract thousands of interpretable features from time series. These features are derived from across the scientific time-series analysis literature, and include summaries of time series in terms of their correlation structure, distribution, entropy, stationarity, scaling properties, and fits to a range of time-series models. After computing thousands of features for each time series in a training set, those that are most informative of the class structure are selected using greedy forward feature selection with a linear classifier. The resulting feature-based classifiers automatically learn the differences between classes using a reduced number of time-series properties, and circumvent the need to calculate distances between time series. Representing time series in this way results in orders of magnitude of dimensionality reduction, allowing the method to perform well on very large datasets containing long time series or time series of different lengths. For many of the datasets studied, classification performance exceeded that of conventional instance-based classifiers, including one nearest neighbor classifiers using Euclidean distances and dynamic time warping and, most importantly, the features selected provide an understanding of the properties of the dataset, insight that can guide further scientific investigation

Proceedings of the 2011 New York Workshop on Computer, Earth and Space Science

The purpose of the New York Workshop on Computer, Earth and Space Sciences is to bring together the New York area's finest Astronomers, Statisticians, Computer Scientists, Space and Earth Scientists to explore potential synergies between their respective fields. The 2011 edition (CESS2011) was a great success, and we would like to thank all of the presenters and participants for attending. This year was also special as it included authors from the upcoming book titled "Advances in Machine Learning and Data Mining for Astronomy". Over two days, the latest advanced techniques used to analyze the vast amounts of information now available for the understanding of our universe and our planet were presented. These proceedings attempt to provide a small window into what the current state of research is in this vast interdisciplinary field and we'd like to thank the speakers who spent the time to contribute to this volume.Comment: Author lists modified. 82 pages. Workshop Proceedings from CESS 2011 in New York City, Goddard Institute for Space Studie