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Support Vector Machine in Prediction of Building Energy Demand Using Pseudo Dynamic Approach
Building's energy consumption prediction is a major concern in the recent
years and many efforts have been achieved in order to improve the energy
management of buildings. In particular, the prediction of energy consumption in
building is essential for the energy operator to build an optimal operating
strategy, which could be integrated to building's energy management system
(BEMS). This paper proposes a prediction model for building energy consumption
using support vector machine (SVM). Data-driven model, for instance, SVM is
very sensitive to the selection of training data. Thus the relevant days data
selection method based on Dynamic Time Warping is used to train SVM model. In
addition, to encompass thermal inertia of building, pseudo dynamic model is
applied since it takes into account information of transition of energy
consumption effects and occupancy profile. Relevant days data selection and
whole training data model is applied to the case studies of Ecole des Mines de
Nantes, France Office building. The results showed that support vector machine
based on relevant data selection method is able to predict the energy
consumption of building with a high accuracy in compare to whole data training.
In addition, relevant data selection method is computationally cheaper (around
8 minute training time) in contrast to whole data training (around 31 hour for
weekend and 116 hour for working days) and reveals realistic control
implementation for online system as well.Comment: Proceedings of ECOS 2015-The 28th International Conference on
Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy
Systems , Jun 2015, Pau, Franc
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A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration
Building energy consumption prediction plays an irreplaceable role in energy planning, management, and conservation. Constantly improving the performance of prediction models is the key to ensuring the efficient operation of energy systems. Moreover, accuracy is no longer the only factor in revealing model performance, it is more important to evaluate the model from multiple perspectives, considering the characteristics of engineering applications. Based on the idea of model integration, this paper proposes a novel improved integration model (stacking model) that can be used to forecast building energy consumption. The stacking model combines advantages of various base prediction algorithms and forms them into “meta-features” to ensure that the final model can observe datasets from different spatial and structural angles. Two cases are used to demonstrate practical engineering applications of the stacking model. A comparative analysis is performed to evaluate the prediction performance of the stacking model in contrast with existing well-known prediction models including Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine, and K-Nearest Neighbor. The results indicate that the stacking method achieves better performance than other models, regarding accuracy (improvement of 9.5%–31.6% for Case A and 16.2%–49.4% for Case B), generalization (improvement of 6.7%–29.5% for Case A and 7.1%-34.6% for Case B), and robustness (improvement of 1.5%–34.1% for Case A and 1.8%–19.3% for Case B). The proposed model enriches the diversity of algorithm libraries of empirical models
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