2,705 research outputs found
Modeling, forecasting and trading the EUR exchange rates with hybrid rolling genetic algorithms: support vector regression forecast combinations
The motivation of this paper is to introduce a hybrid Rolling Genetic Algorithm-Support Vector Regression (RG-SVR) model for optimal parameter selection and feature subset combination. The algorithm is applied to the task of forecasting and trading the EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY exchange rates. The proposed methodology genetically searches over a feature space (pool of individual forecasts) and then combines the optimal feature subsets (SVR forecast combinations) for each exchange rate. This is achieved by applying a fitness function specialized for financial purposes and adopting a sliding window approach. The individual forecasts are derived from several linear and non-linear models. RG-SVR is benchmarked against genetically and non-genetically optimized SVRs and SVMs models that are dominating the relevant literature, along with the robust ARBF-PSO neural network. The statistical and trading performance of all models is investigated during the period of 1999β2012. As it turns out, RG-SVR presents the best performance in terms of statistical accuracy and trading efficiency for all the exchange rates under study. This superiority confirms the success of the implemented fitness function and training procedure, while it validates the benefits of the proposed algorithm
A survey of outlier detection methodologies
Outlier detection has been used for centuries to detect and, where appropriate, remove anomalous observations from data. Outliers arise due to mechanical faults, changes in system behaviour, fraudulent behaviour, human error, instrument error or simply through natural deviations in populations. Their detection can identify system faults and fraud before they escalate with potentially catastrophic consequences. It can identify errors and remove their contaminating effect on the data set and as such to purify the data for processing. The original outlier detection methods were arbitrary but now, principled and systematic techniques are used, drawn from the full gamut of Computer Science and Statistics. In this paper, we introduce a survey of contemporary techniques for outlier detection. We identify their respective motivations and distinguish their advantages and disadvantages in a comparative review
Towards the Evolution of Novel Vertical-Axis Wind Turbines
Renewable and sustainable energy is one of the most important challenges
currently facing mankind. Wind has made an increasing contribution to the
world's energy supply mix, but still remains a long way from reaching its full
potential. In this paper, we investigate the use of artificial evolution to
design vertical-axis wind turbine prototypes that are physically instantiated
and evaluated under approximated wind tunnel conditions. An artificial neural
network is used as a surrogate model to assist learning and found to reduce the
number of fabrications required to reach a higher aerodynamic efficiency,
resulting in an important cost reduction. Unlike in other approaches, such as
computational fluid dynamics simulations, no mathematical formulations are used
and no model assumptions are made.Comment: 14 pages, 11 figure
Automated Circuit Approximation Method Driven by Data Distribution
We propose an application-tailored data-driven fully automated method for
functional approximation of combinational circuits. We demonstrate how an
application-level error metric such as the classification accuracy can be
translated to a component-level error metric needed for an efficient and fast
search in the space of approximate low-level components that are used in the
application. This is possible by employing a weighted mean error distance
(WMED) metric for steering the circuit approximation process which is conducted
by means of genetic programming. WMED introduces a set of weights (calculated
from the data distribution measured on a selected signal in a given
application) determining the importance of each input vector for the
approximation process. The method is evaluated using synthetic benchmarks and
application-specific approximate MAC (multiply-and-accumulate) units that are
designed to provide the best trade-offs between the classification accuracy and
power consumption of two image classifiers based on neural networks.Comment: Accepted for publication at Design, Automation and Test in Europe
(DATE 2019). Florence, Ital
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