Sampling and Inference for Beta Neutral-to-the-Left Models of Sparse Networks

Empirical evidence suggests that heavy-tailed degree distributions occurring in many real networks are well-approximated by power laws with exponents $\eta$ that may take values either less than and greater than two. Models based on various forms of exchangeability are able to capture power laws with $\eta < 2$, and admit tractable inference algorithms; we draw on previous results to show that $\eta > 2$ cannot be generated by the forms of exchangeability used in existing random graph models. Preferential attachment models generate power law exponents greater than two, but have been of limited use as statistical models due to the inherent difficulty of performing inference in non-exchangeable models. Motivated by this gap, we design and implement inference algorithms for a recently proposed class of models that generates $\eta$ of all possible values. We show that although they are not exchangeable, these models have probabilistic structure amenable to inference. Our methods make a large class of previously intractable models useful for statistical inference.Comment: Accepted for publication in the proceedings of Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) 201

Modeling Random Networks with Heterogeneous Reciprocity

Reciprocity, or the tendency of individuals to mirror behavior, is a key measure that describes information exchange in a social network. Users in social networks tend to engage in different levels of reciprocal behavior. Differences in such behavior may indicate the existence of communities that reciprocate links at varying rates. In this paper, we develop methodology to model the diverse reciprocal behavior in growing social networks. In particular, we present a preferential attachment model with heterogeneous reciprocity that imitates the attraction users have for popular users, plus the heterogeneous nature by which they reciprocate links. We compare Bayesian and frequentist model fitting techniques for large networks, as well as computationally efficient variational alternatives. Cases where the number of communities are known and unknown are both considered. We apply the presented methods to the analysis of a Facebook wallpost network where users have non-uniform reciprocal behavior patterns. The fitted model captures the heavy-tailed nature of the empirical degree distributions in the Facebook data and identifies multiple groups of users that differ in their tendency to reply to and receive responses to wallposts

Power Grid Network Evolutions for Local Energy Trading

The shift towards an energy Grid dominated by prosumers (consumers and producers of energy) will inevitably have repercussions on the distribution infrastructure. Today it is a hierarchical one designed to deliver energy from large scale facilities to end-users. Tomorrow it will be a capillary infrastructure at the medium and Low Voltage levels that will support local energy trading among prosumers. In our previous work, we analyzed the Dutch Power Grid and made an initial analysis of the economic impact topological properties have on decentralized energy trading. In this paper, we go one step further and investigate how different networks topologies and growth models facilitate the emergence of a decentralized market. In particular, we show how the connectivity plays an important role in improving the properties of reliability and path-cost reduction. From the economic point of view, we estimate how the topological evolutions facilitate local electricity distribution, taking into account the main cost ingredient required for increasing network connectivity, i.e., the price of cabling

Application of Distance Covariance to Extremes and Time Series and Inference for Linear Preferential Attachment Networks

This thesis covers four topics: i) Measuring dependence in time series through distance covariance; ii) Testing goodness-of-fit of time series models; iii) Threshold selection for multivariate heavy-tailed data; and iv) Inference for linear preferential attachment networks. Topic i) studies a dependence measure based on characteristic functions, called distance covariance, in time series settings. Distance covariance recently gathered popularity for its ability to detect nonlinear dependence. In particular, we characterize a general family of such dependence measures and use them to measure lagged serial and cross dependence in stationary time series. Assuming strong mixing, we establish the relevant asymptotic theory for the sample auto- and cross- distance correlation functions. Topic ii) proposes a goodness-of-fit test for general classes of time series model by applying the auto-distance covariance function (ADCV) to the fitted residuals. Under the correct model assumption, the limit distribution for the ADCV of the residuals differs from that of an i.i.d. sequence by a correction term. This adjustment has essentially the same form regardless of the model specification. Topic iii) considers data in the multivariate regular varying setting where the radial part $R$ is asymptotically independent of the angular part $\Theta$ as $R$ goes to infinity. The goal is to estimate the limiting distribution of $\Theta$ given $R\to\infty$, which characterizes the tail dependence of the data. A typical strategy is to look at the angular components of the data for which the radial parts exceed some threshold. We propose an algorithm to select the threshold based on distance covariance statistics and a subsampling scheme. Topic iv) investigates inference questions related to the linear preferential attachment model for network data. Preferential attachment is an appealing mechanism based on the intuition “the rich get richer” and produces the well-observed power-law behavior in net- works. We provide methods for fitting such a model under two data scenarios, when the network formation is given, and when only a single-time snapshot of the network is observed