How overconfident are current projections of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions?

Analyzing the risks of anthropogenic climate change requires sound probabilistic projections of CO2 emissions. Previous projections have broken important new ground, but many rely on out-of-range projections, are limited to the 21st century, or provide only implicit probabilistic information. Here we take a step towards resolving these problems by assimilating globally aggregated observations of population size, economic output, and CO2 emissions over the last three centuries into a simple economic model. We use this model to derive probabilistic projections of business-as-usual CO2 emissions to the year 2150. We demonstrate how the common practice to limit the calibration timescale to decades can result in biased and overconfident projections. The range of several CO2 emission scenarios (e.g., from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios) misses potentially important tails of our projected probability density function. Studies that have interpreted the range of CO2 emission scenarios as an approximation for the full forcing uncertainty may well be biased towards overconfident climate change projections.economics of climate change, scenarios, data assimilation

Jewish Revenge: Haredi Action in the Zionist Sphere

This is a pre-copyedited version of an article accepted for publication in (journal title, volume and issue numbers, and year) following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version is available from Wayne State University Press.Jewish ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) cinema in Israel has become increasingly prominent in recent years. Emerging as a highly controversial, secluded, and gender-segregated form of “amateur cinema,” it is currently seeing gradual professionalization. This article discusses Haredi cinema in the context of the Haredi community’s relationship with the Israeli state and the doctrine of Zionism. Appropriating generic conventions of mainstream Hollywood cinema, yet keeping within the secluded Haredi space, this form of minority cinema functions as an alternative (virtual) sphere in which a complex set of negotiations occurs between Jewish ultra-Orthodox ideals and those of the surrounding Israeli society and Zionism. It is reflective of and engaged in the production of recent social and discursive transformations within the Haredi community in Israel. We examine this phenomenon through a focused analysis of the male action genre, specifically the popular series Jewish Revenge (Yehuda Grovais, 2000–2010). As we demonstrate, the mode of representation and the narratives of these films bring models of masculinities and notions of heroism under scrutiny. The Zionist narrative, the national body, and the (imaginary) place of the Haredi within it are being reconfigured through the prism of body politics and fantasies of transgression

Special Libraries, January 1942

Volume 33, Issue 1https://scholarworks.sjsu.edu/sla_sl_1942/1000/thumbnail.jp

Measurement of telescope transmission using a Collimated Beam Projector

With the increasingly large number of type Ia supernova being detected by current-generation survey telescopes, and even more expected with the upcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, the precision of cosmological measurements will become limited by systematic uncertainties in flux calibration rather than statistical noise. One major source of systematic error in determining SNe Ia color evolution (needed for distance estimation) is uncertainty in telescope transmission, both within and between surveys. We introduce here the Collimated Beam Projector (CBP), which is meant to measure a telescope transmission with collimated light. The collimated beam more closely mimics a stellar wavefront as compared to flat-field based instruments, allowing for more precise handling of systematic errors such as those from ghosting and filter angle-of-incidence dependence. As a proof of concept, we present CBP measurements of the StarDICE prototype telescope, achieving a standard (1 sigma) uncertainty of 3 % on average over the full wavelength range measured with a single beam illumination

Market conditions: The Brazilian LGBT+ press in the 1990s and 2000s - SuiGeneris and G Magazine

Este artigo descreve como uma ideia originada nos Estados Unidos – de que os homossexuais deveriam ser considerados não como uma minoria marginal mas como um mercado especializado e valoroso – foi trazida para o Brasil por meio da revista impressa sobre papel couché, com a promessa de atrair a publicidade lucrativa das grandes grifes.   Examina dois títulos importantes – SuiGeneris e G Magazine – para mostrar como o formato foi adaptado às condições brasileiras de modos diferentes.   Houve uma interação com dois fatores existentes, o movimento social LGBT+ e a revista erótica de nus masculinos, junto com o fenômeno contemporâneo da cultura da celebridade.   O artigo analisa as pesquisas acadêmicas sobre o assunto e tenta avaliar até que ponto a ideia original conseguiu atingir os seus próprios objetivos e os ideiais sociais mais abrangentes de combater o preconceito e a discriminação contra os homossexuais.This article charts the way that an idea originating in the United States – that homosexuals should be considered not as a marginalised minority but as a valuable niche market – was brought to Brazil by means of the glossy printed magazine, with its promise of attracting lucrative brand advertising. It examines two major titles –SuiGeneris and G Magazine – to show how the format was adapted in different ways to Brazilian conditions. This led to interactions with two existing factors, the LGBT+ social movement and the erotic male nude magazine, together with the contemporary phenomenon of celebrity culture. The article reviews scholarly research on the topic and tries to assess to what degree the original idea met its objectives, both on its own terms and within the wider social goal of combatting prejudice and discrimination against homosexuals.Este artigo describe como una idea originada en los Estados Unidos – que los homosexuales debian ser considerados no como una minoria marginal sino como un mercado especializado y valioso – fue traida al Brasil por la revista impresa en papel lustroso, con la promesa de atraer la  publicidad lucrativa de las grandes marcas.   Examina dos títulos importantes – SuiGeneris y G Magazine – para mostrar como el formato fue adaptado a las condiciones brasileñas de maneras diferentes.   Hubo una interacción con dos factores existentes, el movimiento social LGBT+ y la revista erótica de desnudos masculinos, junto con el fenómeno contemporáneo de la cultura de la celebridad.   El artigo analisa las investigaciones académicas sobre el tema y trata de evaluar hasta que punto la idea original logró alcanzar sus  propios objetivos y los ideales sociales más amplios de combater los prejuicios y la discriminación contra los homosexuales

Dynastic Centres in Europe and Asia : A Layout for Comparison

In this paper, I seek to prepare the way for a comparative analysis of dynastic centres in Europe and Asia. This is a timely challenge, following trends in European historiography stressing the persistence of household structures and ritual at the heart of the early modern state, as well as recent detailed studies of Asian courts. Clearly patterns varied greatly, but the divergences should not be fitted unthinkingly into a grand narrative based on the ‘rise of the west’. Among the issues equally relevant for courts in Europe and Asia, I privilege two. In the first place, all rulers needed loyal agents, yet could not easily guarantee their loyalty over time. Agents in the long run tend to become vested interest groups, standing in the way of the ruler’s personal power. The court was a main theatre where this tension could be solved or exacerbated. In the second place the dynastic centre with its redistributive function and its calendar of rituals could offer a point of orientation for regional elites not otherwise connected, hence bringing cohesion to loosely governed multi-ethnic empires or composite monarchies. After considering comparative strategies and problems related to scope, as well as obstacles created by languages and sources, I elaborate in some detail four foci for research: 1) the ruler himself (or more rarely herself); 2) the dynasty, succession, reproduction (evidently including women as well as siblings); 3) the status, composition, and tasks of the groups serving the ruler; and finally 4) the connections of this grouping with its wider social environment. It is my contention that in each of these four subsequent concentric circles we can define a series of questions relevant for all dynastic centres, notwith¬standing huge cultural differences separating civilizations, regions, and periods. Using diachronic and synchronic approaches to study a focused theme, I hope to reach a level of comparative precision that goes beyond open generalized statements while retaining analytical precision and proximity to sources. This can only be structured as a joint effort, the outlines of which are suggested here