An Integrated Multi-Time-Scale Modeling for Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Deep Learning

For short-term solar irradiance forecasting, the traditional point forecasting methods are rendered less useful due to the non-stationary characteristic of solar power. The amount of operating reserves required to maintain reliable operation of the electric grid rises due to the variability of solar energy. The higher the uncertainty in the generation, the greater the operating-reserve requirements, which translates to an increased cost of operation. In this research work, we propose a unified architecture for multi-time-scale predictions for intra-day solar irradiance forecasting using recurrent neural networks (RNN) and long-short-term memory networks (LSTMs). This paper also lays out a framework for extending this modeling approach to intra-hour forecasting horizons thus, making it a multi-time-horizon forecasting approach, capable of predicting intra-hour as well as intra-day solar irradiance. We develop an end-to-end pipeline to effectuate the proposed architecture. The performance of the prediction model is tested and validated by the methodical implementation. The robustness of the approach is demonstrated with case studies conducted for geographically scattered sites across the United States. The predictions demonstrate that our proposed unified architecture-based approach is effective for multi-time-scale solar forecasts and achieves a lower root-mean-square prediction error when benchmarked against the best-performing methods documented in the literature that use separate models for each time-scale during the day. Our proposed method results in a 71.5% reduction in the mean RMSE averaged across all the test sites compared to the ML-based best-performing method reported in the literature. Additionally, the proposed method enables multi-time-horizon forecasts with real-time inputs, which have a significant potential for practical industry applications in the evolving grid.Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables, under review for journal submissio

Traffic Prediction Based on Random Connectivity in Deep Learning with Long Short-Term Memory

Traffic prediction plays an important role in evaluating the performance of telecommunication networks and attracts intense research interests. A significant number of algorithms and models have been put forward to analyse traffic data and make prediction. In the recent big data era, deep learning has been exploited to mine the profound information hidden in the data. In particular, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), one kind of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) schemes, has attracted a lot of attentions due to its capability of processing the long-range dependency embedded in the sequential traffic data. However, LSTM has considerable computational cost, which can not be tolerated in tasks with stringent latency requirement. In this paper, we propose a deep learning model based on LSTM, called Random Connectivity LSTM (RCLSTM). Compared to the conventional LSTM, RCLSTM makes a notable breakthrough in the formation of neural network, which is that the neurons are connected in a stochastic manner rather than full connected. So, the RCLSTM, with certain intrinsic sparsity, have many neural connections absent (distinguished from the full connectivity) and which leads to the reduction of the parameters to be trained and the computational cost. We apply the RCLSTM to predict traffic and validate that the RCLSTM with even 35% neural connectivity still shows a satisfactory performance. When we gradually add training samples, the performance of RCLSTM becomes increasingly closer to the baseline LSTM. Moreover, for the input traffic sequences of enough length, the RCLSTM exhibits even superior prediction accuracy than the baseline LSTM.Comment: 6 pages, 9 figure

A novel monitoring system for fall detection in older people

Indexación: Scopus.This work was supported in part by CORFO - CENS 16CTTS-66390 through the National Center on Health Information Systems, in part by the National Commission for Scientific and Technological Research (CONICYT) through the Program STIC-AMSUD 17STIC-03: ‘‘MONITORing for ehealth," FONDEF ID16I10449 ‘‘Sistema inteligente para la gestión y análisis de la dotación de camas en la red asistencial del sector público’’, and in part by MEC80170097 ‘‘Red de colaboración científica entre universidades nacionales e internacionales para la estructuración del doctorado y magister en informática médica en la Universidad de Valparaíso’’. The work of V. H. C. De Albuquerque was supported by the Brazilian National Council for Research and Development (CNPq), under Grant 304315/2017-6.Each year, more than 30% of people over 65 years-old suffer some fall. Unfortunately, this can generate physical and psychological damage, especially if they live alone and they are unable to get help. In this field, several studies have been performed aiming to alert potential falls of the older people by using different types of sensors and algorithms. In this paper, we present a novel non-invasive monitoring system for fall detection in older people who live alone. Our proposal is using very-low-resolution thermal sensors for classifying a fall and then alerting to the care staff. Also, we analyze the performance of three recurrent neural networks for fall detections: Long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit, and Bi-LSTM. As many learning algorithms, we have performed a training phase using different test subjects. After several tests, we can observe that the Bi-LSTM approach overcome the others techniques reaching a 93% of accuracy in fall detection. We believe that the bidirectional way of the Bi-LSTM algorithm gives excellent results because the use of their data is influenced by prior and new information, which compares to LSTM and GRU. Information obtained using this system did not compromise the user's privacy, which constitutes an additional advantage of this alternative. © 2013 IEEE.https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=842305