Democratic Transitions and the Future of Asylum Law

The United States\u27s commitment to protecting refugees is dying a slow death. Two developments have contributed to its demise. The first, widely heralded, is the United States Congress\u27s evisceration of procedural safeguards such as judicial review. The second development is more insidious: expansion of the asylum law doctrine, which holds that changed country conditions can defeat an otherwise valid asylum claim. In an age in which democracy seems triumphant throughout the world, the combination of severely curtailed judicial review and mechanical application of the changed conditions doctrine relegates refugees, as well as asylum law itself, to an uncertain future.\u27 This article argues that the rise of the changed country conditions doctrine stems from judicial and administrative confusion about both the role of both subjective and objective factors in asylum law and the nature of democratic transitions

The Role of Central Banks in Sustaining Economic Recovery and in Achieving Financial Stability

Whenever a financial crisis occurs, threatening a possible financial meltdown, central banks have to be at the forefront in combating, neutralizing the crisis and restoring financial stability and economic growth. In this regards, the present sub-prime crisis which originated from the US highlights a few key issues for the Southeast Asian Central banks (SEACEN). This paper reviews the policy responses to the crisis which include exit policy strategies from stimulus monetary packages. To strengthen the soundness of the financial system, going forward, the paper also highlights counter-cyclical and macro-prudential regulations that central banks may want to actively look into. These include cross-border policy cooperation and coordination, particularly in the form of the college of supervisors.- SEACEN; -Central Banks; - Financial Stability; - Prudential Regulation; -Supervision.

Economic projections for Belgium – spring 2005

Twice a year, in June and December, the National Bank of Belgium publishes the macroeconomic projections for the Belgian economy for the current and the following year. The current projections cover the years 2005 and 2006. These projections make up the national component of the broad macroeconomic projection exercise conducted within the Eurosystem ; the ECB publishes the aggregated results of this exercise for the euro area economy in its Monthly Bulletin. At the current juncture, the international environment is expected to remain supportive in 2005 and 2006, although real world GDP growth would be somewhat weaker compared to the impressive growth in 2004. Following the slowdown which hit the euro area since the summer of 2004, the Eurosystem expects, for the euro area, a gradual recovery from mid-2005 onwards and a deceleration of inflation from a higher level in the first months of 2005, due to receding pressure from energy prices, while domestic cost pressures should remain contained. In Belgium, GDP growth slowed down markedly at the end of 2004. During the first quarter of 2005, the level of activity even stabilised and business confidence further dropped. Compared to the projections of December, GDP growth for 2005 has thus been revised downwards by more than 1 percentage point towards 1.4 p.c. In line with the Eurosystem’s assumptions, the slowdown would be temporarily and activity should increase by 2.4 p.c. in 2006. A gradual strengthening of real household disposable income is expected in 2005, stemming mainly from financial income, and further in 2006, due to the proceeds of the tax reform. However, private consumption growth should be weak in the beginning of 2005, due to the high oil price level and the increased uncertainty of consumers regarding the economic situation. Domestic demand would nevertheless show some resilience in 2005 due to increasing investment. Also, towards 2006 exports would strengthen, supported by an improving international environment. Although employment growth is likely to slacken somewhat in the course of 2005, there would be a net creation of 62,000 jobs over the period 2005-2006. Still, the unemployment rate is likely to rise somewhat further, to 7.9 and 8 p.c. in 2005 and 2006 respectively, as the increase of the working population would slightly outpace the number of new jobs. Inflation is expected to increase to 2.2 p.c. in 2005, largely as a consequence of high energy prices, before decreasing to 1.9 p.c. in 2006. The underlying trend in inflation should however stay limited, at 1.3 and 1.6 p.c. in 2005 and 2006 respectively, as domestic cost developments should remain contained. Only taking into account the measures which have already been taken upon in the 2005 budget, the general government balance is expected to show a deficit of 0.5 p.c. of GDP in 2005 and of 1.4 p.c. in 2006.Belgium, macroeconomic projections, Eurosystem

Growth and Performance Factors in Polish Manufacturing Firms in 1998-2003 in the Light of Survey Data

We investigate possible factors of change in employment between 1998 and 2003 in 220 companies from four industries of Polish manufacturing (food, electronics, automotive and pharmaceuticals), that were subject to an enterprise survey. We also seek to explain the differences in performance among companies. We find that firms that were more competitive and more innovative laid off relatively less workers. Ownership status and history seem to be relevant factors too, as companies that were started as private businesses slightly increased employment, while the state-owned enterprises experienced proportionally the largest employment cuts; as for privatized companies, those taken over earlier performed better in terms of employment than those privatized later. However, econometric analysis of premia of early privatization and foreign ownership showed that only the latter factor played a significantly positive role for companies' revenues, productivity, profitability and the level of wages.employment, privatization, FDI, competitiveness, manufacturing

The Role of Central Banks in Sustaining Economic Recovery and in Achieving Financial Stability

Whenever a financial crisis occurs, threatening a possible financial meltdown, central banks have to be at the forefront in combating, neutralizing the crisis and restoring financial stability and economic growth. In this regard, the present sub-prime crisis which originated from the US highlights a few key issues for SEACEN central banks. This paper reviews the policy responses to the crisis which include exit policy strategies from stimulus monetary packages. To strengthen the soundness of the financial system going forward, the paper also highlights counter-cyclical and macro-prudential regulations that central banks may want to actively look into. These include cross-border policy cooperation and coordination, particularly in the form of the college of supervisors. (This paper has also been published in the Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, Vol.1, Issue1(1), Summer 2010, http://www.asers.eu/journals/jasf/)

Beyond the Border and Back to the Future: Seizing the Opportunity to Enhance Canadian and US Economic Growth and Security

The leaders of Canada and the United States have announced an ambitious vision for perimeter security and economic competitiveness between the two countries. They have charged a working group with producing a multi-year Action Plan that will turn this vision into reality. The vision is centered on the idea that performing inspection and other formalities well before shipments and people arrive at the busy bilateral border will ease costly delays there, and that this can be achieved while simultaneously enhancing security and reducing costs for secure trade and for individuals. The study concludes that these new mechanisms can draw inspiration from existing ones that help provide the mutual trust, dedication and expertise necessary to successfully manage water issues between Canada and the United States.International Economic Policy, trade, Canada, United States, border security

Controlling Financial Chaos: The Power and Limits of Law

This Essay examines how law can help to control financial chaos. To that end, regulation should strive to not only maximize economic efficiency within the financial system but also protect the financial system itself. Any regulatory framework for achieving these goals, however, will be imperfect and have tradeoffs. Increasing financial complexity has created information failures that even disclosure cannot remedy, whereas law-imposed standardization would have its own flaws. Bounded human rationality limits the effectiveness of even otherwise ideal laws. Furthermore, the increasing dispersion of financial risk is undermining monitoring incentives. We also do not yet fully understand how systemic risk is triggered and spread. Because regulation therefore cannot prevent systemic shocks, regulation should also operate to reduce systemic consequences by stabilizing parts of the financial system afflicted by those shocks

Statistical Response Burden of Companies: Cutting Back Obligation to Report Cannot Contribute Much to Reduction of Bureaucracy

The official statistics are often on the agenda when discussions about the burden of economic agents due to "bureaucracy" take place. They are often considered to be an example of unnecessary but time-consuming demand on companies by the government. A study of the Germany Institute for Economic Research commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology depicts that, with its 230 million Euro per year, the burden of companies due to official statistics is substantially smaller than often claimed. Other legal obligations to respond and to report, such as in personal management, take up much more time. This study, based on information from about 75,000 companies, rectifies previous substantially higher cost estimations of other institutes. A result from this finding: a quick and widely noticeable success in reducing bureaucratic burden cannot be achieved, even with a drastic cutback of surveys from Statistical Offices. Nonetheless, many companies do not complain without reasons. A small part of companies must regularly deliver time-consuming statistical responses. A more even distribution of burden should be seen to.

Economic projections for Belgium – Spring 2007

Since the projections published in December 2006, the international environment has remained buoyant. GDP growth in the euro area, which proved stronger than previously expected over the last months, should keep going at a solid pace in 2007. In Belgium, economic activity has been particularly strong in 2006. It should slow down slightly in 2007 and 2008, to return to a rhythm more in line with potential. Overall, real GDP growth is projected to decline from 3 p.c. in 2006, the highest rate for six years, to 2.5 p.c. in 2007. It is expected to be 2.2 p.c. in 2008. Over the whole period covered by the projections, growth should turn out to be more balanced than in 2006, backed by both foreign demand and domestic demand. In particular, although slowing down somewhat in comparison with the vigorous expansion recorded in 2006, private consumption and business investment should expand in line with still supportive demand, income and labour market conditions over the period 2007-2008. Actually, the rate of employment growth appears to be more sustained than in previous upturns. Following an increase of 46,000 units in 2006, domestic employment should grow by another 115,000 jobs or so over the period 2007-2008. With a cumulative decline of 60,000 jobless, the highest number over a two-year period since 1999-2000, the harmonised unemployment rate is projected to fall from 8.2 p.c. in 2006 to 7.2 p.c. in 2008, prolonging a downward movement that begun in 2006. Estimated on the basis of the HICP, overall inflation is forecast to fall markedly, from 2.3 p.c. in 2006 to 1.6 p.c. in 2007 and 1.8 p.c. in 2008. This drop can be explained by the moderating influence exerted by the energy component of the index, stemming from some appeasement of the oil price evolution and from the downward impact of the liberalisation of the gas and electricity markets in Brussels and Wallonia, as well as the new method of recording these energy prices in the consumer price index. The underlying trend in inflation is expected to rise moderately, from 1.6 p.c. in 2006 to 1.9 p.c. in 2007, before falling back to 1.7 p.c. in 2008. The slight acceleration in 2007 is almost exclusively due to increases in excise duties on tobacco and the levy on packaging. Reflecting the slowdown in labour productivity alone, as a result of the net rise in employment, unit labour costs in the private sector are projected to increase somewhat, rising from 1.1 p.c. in 2006 to 1.6 p.c. in 2007 and 2008. Moreover, the growth in hourly labour costs is expected to dip slightly from the 2006 level, coming down from 2.7 p.c. to 2.4 p.c. in 2007 and 2.6 p.c. in 2008. For both of these years, the cumulative increase corresponds to the 5 p.c. target set in the central wage-bargaining agreement, in the absence of information on the outcome of the wage negotiations being conducted in the various joint committees at sectoral level. After showing a surplus of 0.2 p.c. of GDP in 2006, general government accounts are likely to show a slight deficit, of 0.1 p.c. of GDP this year and 0.2 p.c. in 2008. Interest charges should continue to drop and tax revenues are expected to benefit from the promising economic outlook, but these elements are more than entirely offset by the disappearance of the favourable impact of nonrecurrent factors, as well as by a deterioration of the structural primary balance in 2007. The public debt ratio will continue to fall gradually, coming down by some 6 percentage points of GDP over the two years of the forecasting period, to reach 82.7 p.c. of GDP in 2008.Belgium, macroeconomic projections, Eurosystem