CASTNet: Community-Attentive Spatio-Temporal Networks for Opioid Overdose Forecasting

Opioid overdose is a growing public health crisis in the United States. This crisis, recognized as "opioid epidemic," has widespread societal consequences including the degradation of health, and the increase in crime rates and family problems. To improve the overdose surveillance and to identify the areas in need of prevention effort, in this work, we focus on forecasting opioid overdose using real-time crime dynamics. Previous work identified various types of links between opioid use and criminal activities, such as financial motives and common causes. Motivated by these observations, we propose a novel spatio-temporal predictive model for opioid overdose forecasting by leveraging the spatio-temporal patterns of crime incidents. Our proposed model incorporates multi-head attentional networks to learn different representation subspaces of features. Such deep learning architecture, called "community-attentive" networks, allows the prediction of a given location to be optimized by a mixture of groups (i.e., communities) of regions. In addition, our proposed model allows for interpreting what features, from what communities, have more contributions to predicting local incidents as well as how these communities are captured through forecasting. Our results on two real-world overdose datasets indicate that our model achieves superior forecasting performance and provides meaningful interpretations in terms of spatio-temporal relationships between the dynamics of crime and that of opioid overdose.Comment: Accepted as conference paper at ECML-PKDD 201

Complex Network Tools to Understand the Behavior of Criminality in Urban Areas

Complex networks are nowadays employed in several applications. Modeling urban street networks is one of them, and in particular to analyze criminal aspects of a city. Several research groups have focused on such application, but until now, there is a lack of a well-defined methodology for employing complex networks in a whole crime analysis process, i.e. from data preparation to a deep analysis of criminal communities. Furthermore, the "toolset" available for those works is not complete enough, also lacking techniques to maintain up-to-date, complete crime datasets and proper assessment measures. In this sense, we propose a threefold methodology for employing complex networks in the detection of highly criminal areas within a city. Our methodology comprises three tasks: (i) Mapping of Urban Crimes; (ii) Criminal Community Identification; and (iii) Crime Analysis. Moreover, it provides a proper set of assessment measures for analyzing intrinsic criminality of communities, especially when considering different crime types. We show our methodology by applying it to a real crime dataset from the city of San Francisco - CA, USA. The results confirm its effectiveness to identify and analyze high criminality areas within a city. Hence, our contributions provide a basis for further developments on complex networks applied to crime analysis.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, 14th International Conference on Information Technology : New Generation

Assessing New York City's Youth Gun Violence Crisis: Crews - Volume III - Responding to the Problem: Coordinating a Continuum of Services

The success or failure of community strategies to address the youth gun violence crisis is often attributed in part to how well the problem is understood and diagnosed. With support from The New York Community Trust, the Crime Commission has undertaken an analysis of youth gun violence and crew activity -- violent turf rivalries among less-organized, smaller and normally younger groups than traditional gangs -- in select New York City communities. Our initial findings from available data, existing research and interviews with stakeholders are presented in a series of papers titled, Assessing New York City's Youth Gun Violence Crisis: Crews

A Call to Action: Los Angeles' Quest to Achieve Community Safety

"A Call To Action: Los Angeles' Quest To Achieve Community Safety" is a report and policy brief telling the story of L.A.'s extraordinary experiment to keep kids safe in the City of Los Angeles' worst gang zones, and laying out a new comprehensive set of recommendations. The document also explains Advancement Project's comprehensive violence reduction strategy and shows how it could be used in other communities suffering from gang violence. The report, assembled by Advancement Proejct's Urban Peace and Healthy City programs, highlights progress the City of L.A. has made toward greater public safety, and how to build on those successes to achieve comprehensive community safety in places where children are still exposed to chronic trauma and violence.Five Years of ProgressIn 2007 Advancement Project released "A Call to Action: A Case for a Comprehensive Solution to L.A.'s Gang Violence Epidemic", a roadmap that explained why Los Angeles' 30-year "war on gangs" was failing to quell gangs and gang violence and laid out a comprehensive set of recommendations to reverse course. Since then, Advancement Project has worked closely with City officials to put these recommendations into place.Los Angeles has seen greater success in decreasing gang violence with gang-related crime reduced by over 15% and 35% fewer gang-related homicides surrounding neighborhoods served by the Mayor's Gang Reduction & Youth Development (GRYD) Office and by Summer Night Lights, a summer violence reduction strategy. In 2010 the homicide rate was at its lowest since the 1960s.Success in significantly reducing violence can be attributed in part to the following:Catalyst to City's new approach to gang violence: Based on the 2007 report recommendations to create a central entity that manages gang violence prevention in areas where violence was concentrated, the City of L.A. created the GRYD Office to focus public resources where it is needed the most -- on 12 gang violence hot zones identified in conjunction with community leaders.Transformation of L.A. Police Department: The LAPD has transformed the way it deals with gangs, from an overbroad suppression strategy to relationship-based, problem-solving policing.Training gang interventionists: The Urban Peace Academy was established to train gang interventionists, the only publicly funded training program in the nation for gang interventionists. The academy has trained more than 1,200 gang interventionists and more than 400 police officers to work together, which has resulted in collaboration and shared accountability to achieve public safety.In fact, efforts in Los Angeles have been so successful that other cities across the nation are working to adopt some of the strategies that have succeeded in Los Angeles.Time for a New Call to ActionDespite amazing gains in violence reduction for the City of Los Angeles as a whole, there is still much left to do. We are not yet fully cured of this complex epidemic -- the conditions that spawn and sustain gang violence remain largely unchanged in L.A.'s most vulnerable communities. We continue to require holistic, systemic, and politically difficult solutions."A Call to Action: Los Angeles' Quest to Achieve Community Safety"explains why, despite these significant accomplishments, the City faces a number of ongoing challenges and opportunities for investment.The Urban Peace program advocates for the leadership of the City and County of Los Angeles to publicly commit to achieving the following goals:GOVERNMENT AND COMMUNITY ACCOUNTABILITY: Government at every level must be held accountable for the basic safety of every child.SCALING UP PREVENTION, INTERVENTION, AND TARGETED SUPPRESSION: The City and County of Los Angeles must bring up to scale prevention and intervention efforts to meet the need in the hot zones in a culturally competent way.ACHIEVE FEAR-FREE SCHOOLS: Beyond Safe Passages to and from school, all students should attend public schools free of bullying, gang intimidation, and all forms of fear.REGIONALLY COORDINATED COUNTY AGENCIES: County agencies must cooperate with each other and with the City to achieve reductions in violence, trauma, and crime.BUILD A REENTRY NETWORK: The County must seize realignment as an opportunity to make coordinated, seamless reintegration a reality for its citizens returning from incarceration.EQUITABLE COMMUNITY BUILDING: These neighborhoods must receive the same capital, business, educational, and infrastructure investment from which affluent Los Angeles already benefits.CREATE VIABLE EMPLOYMENT: There needs to be an immediate economic and employment plan for the hot zone communities of Los Angeles.Ending the public safety inequity that renders gang violence hot zone communities invisible to the rest of Los Angeles means we must provide youth greater alternatives that preempt gang joining. Political will is necessary to pull together a truly comprehensive solution with real government-community partnerships at both the City and County level, tailored to yield and sustain results for each individual neighborhood. Los Angeles cannot rest until every family and every child enjoy the first of all civil rights -- safety -- and the first of all freedoms -- freedom from violence

Human Mobility in Large Cities as a Proxy for Crime

We investigate at the subscale of the neighborhoods of a highly populated city the incidence of property crimes in terms of both the resident and the floating population. Our results show that a relevant allometric relation could only be observed between property crimes and floating population. More precisely, the evidence of a superlinear behavior indicates that a disproportional number of property crimes occurs in regions where an increased flow of people takes place in the city. For comparison, we also found that the number of crimes of peace disturbance only correlates well, and in a superlinear fashion too, with the resident population. Our study raises the interesting possibility that the superlinearity observed in previous studies [Bettencourt et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 104, 7301 (2007) and Melo et al., Sci. Rep. 4, 6239 (2014)] for homicides versus population at the city scale could have its origin in the fact that the floating population, and not the resident one, should be taken as the relevant variable determining the intrinsic microdynamical behavior of the system.Comment: 17 pages, 8 Figure

Mining large-scale human mobility data for long-term crime prediction

Traditional crime prediction models based on census data are limited, as they fail to capture the complexity and dynamics of human activity. With the rise of ubiquitous computing, there is the opportunity to improve such models with data that make for better proxies of human presence in cities. In this paper, we leverage large human mobility data to craft an extensive set of features for crime prediction, as informed by theories in criminology and urban studies. We employ averaging and boosting ensemble techniques from machine learning, to investigate their power in predicting yearly counts for different types of crimes occurring in New York City at census tract level. Our study shows that spatial and spatio-temporal features derived from Foursquare venues and checkins, subway rides, and taxi rides, improve the baseline models relying on census and POI data. The proposed models achieve absolute R^2 metrics of up to 65% (on a geographical out-of-sample test set) and up to 89% (on a temporal out-of-sample test set). This proves that, next to the residential population of an area, the ambient population there is strongly predictive of the area's crime levels. We deep-dive into the main crime categories, and find that the predictive gain of the human dynamics features varies across crime types: such features bring the biggest boost in case of grand larcenies, whereas assaults are already well predicted by the census features. Furthermore, we identify and discuss top predictive features for the main crime categories. These results offer valuable insights for those responsible for urban policy or law enforcement