Microsimulation of urban land use

The project ILUMASS (Integrated Land-Use Modelling and Transportation System Simulation) aims at embedding a microscopic dynamic simulation model of urban traffic flows into a comprehensive model system incorporating both changes of land use and the resulting changes in transport demand. The land-use component of ILUMASS will be based on the land-use parts of an existing urban simulation model, but is to be microscopic like the transport parts of ILUMASS. Microsimulation modules will include models of demographic development, household formation, firm lifecycles, residential and non-residential construction, labour mobility on the regional labour market and household mobility on the regional housing market. These modules will be closely linked with the models of daily activity patterns and travel and goods movements modelled in the transport parts of ILUMASS developed by other partners of the project team. The design of the land use model takes into account that the collection of individual micro data (i.e. data which because of their micro location can be associated with individual buildings or small groups of buildings) or the retrieval of individual micro data from administrative registers for planning purposes is neither possible nor, for privacy reasons, desirable. The land use model therefore works with synthetic micro data which can be retrieved from generally accessible public data. ILUMASS is a group project of institutes of the universities of Aachen, Bamberg, Dortmund, Cologne and Wuppertal under the co-ordination of the Transport Research Institute of the German Aerospace Centre (DLR). Study region for tests and first applications of the model is the urban region of Dortmund. The common database will be compiled in co-operation with the City of Dortmund. After its completion the integrated model is to be used for assessing the impacts of potential transport and land use policies for the new land use plan of the city. The paper will focus on the land-use parts of the ILUMASS model. It will present the underlying behavioural theories and how they are made operational in the model design, explain how the synthetic population is generated, show first model results and demonstrate the potential usefulness of the model for the planning process.

COMBINING QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE APPROACHES TO RURAL DEVELOPMENT ANALYSIS: THE CASE OF AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION IN LEBANON

While peripheral rural regions in Lebanon face typical problems of lagging development and economic marginalisation, they have not been regarded as a priority for policy-makers, and significant disparities between these and other regions have emerged as a result. Local extensionists have encouraged technological innovation as a means to improving farmers’ livelihoods, and this has led to increasing input use and an intensification of agricultural production. This paper applies contrasting quantitative and qualitative methodologies to analyse the effects of such changes at the level of the overall economy of Lebanon and also to explore the impacts on rural households. A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model explores several simulation scenarios in which agricultural output increases due to intensification in the use of intermediate inputs. The results are evaluated at local level through the use of qualitative case-study analysis carried out in the Hermel region of northeast Lebanon. Quantitative simulations indicate that, while intensification has a positive effect overall on the Lebanese economy, the effects on rural households and the income of farmers are negative; the case-study demonstrates that, at local level, agricultural trade liberalisation, increased agricultural output and greater volatility of commodity prices has resulted in farmers opting for lower input use and more secure market forms of production.Community/Rural/Urban Development,

Land-Use Transport Interaction: State of the Art

This paper investigates innovative approaches to the integration of land-use and transport planning in urban regions. Engineering, economic and social-science based theories and empirical studies are analyzed regarding their ability to explain the interaction between land use and transport - that land use determines traffic flows and that transport infrastructure changes land-use patterns. In addition, this paper provides an overview of the state of the art of computer models for the simulation of land use and transport. Based on these theories and models the effectiveness of policies to influence land use and transport in urban regions is assessed.Urban location theory, transportation research, land use- transport interaction, urban simulation modeling, location choice

CGE-Microsimulation Modelling: A Survey

This paper reviews the recent work on the application of the CGE-microsimulation models. The discussion focuses on the various linking methodologies and how they can impact our results.Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model; Microsimulation; Poverty; Inequality;

Sustainable development strategies for product provision and manufacturing approaches

Manufacturing firms are under many pressures both financially and competitive which focus attention on the performance of their manufacturing processes. In this paper the opportunities for improving the environmental impact of products within the constraints of existing manufacturing infrastructure are examined. Approaches which support sustainability in two aspects are proposed, firstly, the provision of products to the users in ways which extend the product life and secondly, manufacturing approaches which reduce resource usage. The provision and manufacture of products in ways that are truly sustainable are inhibited by three issues: firstly, decisions are predominantly made solely from the perspective of the “vendor” (and do not consider the wider perspective); secondly, that generally the scope of business planning is still rooted in production/manufacturing costs (and not consumption costs) and thirdly, the current performance measures (e.g. KPIs) mainly focus on profitability. The rationale for this conference paper is the argument that there is a need to raise the awareness during the earliest stages of business planning that there may be alternative approaches which are more sustainable. The concepts presented here will underpin further research into performance measures which encompass sustainability and resulting business planning implications

How to Improve the Capture of Urban Goods Movement Data?

The surveys specifically focused on the thorough knowledge of urban freight transport appeared about ten years ago. The local problematic of goods transport at local level was partially taken into account by the city planners and by the researchers: until recent years, the integration of goods transport in the total urban flows models was estimated applying a multiplying factor to car traffic. Delivering goods was not considered like a concern.Because of the quick growth of car traffic in the cities, the main stakes changed too: the fight against traffic congestion, the management of the lack of space (shipment consolidation and storage), the attempts to reduce local environmental impacts and global externalities (energy saving, reduction of greenhouse gas emissions), and economic valuation of city centres (under the pressure of a slowed down economic growth).All these changes were taking place in a context in which available rooms for manoeuvre were limited by factors such as congestion, concerns about the quality of urban life and budget restriction. It resulted in a growing unease on the freight transport industry and the city authorities, the latter having little or no data, methods and references in order to elaborate a satisfactory policy framework.surveys on urban freight transport ; urban freight movements ; urban freight data collection ; urban goods data collection ; diversity of measurement units and methods ; state of the art

FUEL SUBSIDY REMOVAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY IN NIGERIA: A DYNAMIC COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH

Environmental challenges such as climate change continue to threaten human existence globally. This has necessitated renewed focus on some existing policies that by design or otherwise may counter global efforts at addressing these challenges. Various engineering solutions have been championed while economic and social development tools have focused on using various policy instruments to reduce the concentration of emissions in the atmosphere. One of such policies is the fuel subsidy policy and various arguments for and against this policy exists. While some support the policy as it enhances access to energy and promotes welfare, others argue that it places budgetary burden on the economy. More so, studies that have focused on policy instruments have employed different approaches. However, those that focused on addressing environmental questions in terms of promoting green growth are very scarce. This study, thus, investigated the environmental consequences of fuel subsidy removal in Nigeria using an economy-wide modelling approach. It adapted the energy-environment (E2) dynamic CGE model of the Nigerian economy that is based on the Partnership and Economic Policy (PEP) recursive dynamic CGE model. Furthermore, the study simulated three scenarios namely the partial removal (Simulation1), gradual removal (Simulation 2) and complete removal (Simulation 3) of import tariff on imported refined oil. It assessed the impact of the various simulation strategies on carbon emissions (as a measure of environmental quality) in Nigeria. The dataset employed is the re-aggregated version of the 2006 Nigerian Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) that specially accounted for petroleum subsidy. The re-aggregation was to make it more compatible with the main objective of the study. This is necessary since the 2006 SAM has different components. The outcome of the simulation analysis showed that reduction in carbon emission occurred only when subsidy was partially removed, but marginally increased with gradual removal and complete removal. This suggests that even though the removal of subsidy can reduce emission, it is not sufficient in the long term especially as there is yet to be a viable “green” alternative to petrol in Nigeria. Therefore, subsidy removal will only make consumers reduce consumption initially and then increases later in order to meet their energy demands since there is no better environmentally friendly alternative to petrol. It is recommended that subsidy on petrol be targeted towards enhancing the commercialisation of renewable energy sources or appropriate technology (such as fuel blending) which are still not affordable for some households. This will further enhance the development of green growth practices and then be supported with relevant financing options in order to make it sufficient for driving environmental quality in Nigeria

The Macro-Economic and Sectoral Impacts of HIV and AIDS in India

The adverse economic impact of HIV and AIDS occurs at three levels : the individual/household, sector, and national or macro-levels. In the early phase of the epidemic, the impacts at the sector and macro-levels are rather mild and, hence, not easily measurable or quantifiable. So far in India, given the low overall prevalence, the focus has been on the effects at the level of the individual and the household. The enlisted study, by Pradhan, Sundar and Singh (2006)1 also focuses on the impact of HIV and AIDS on affected households, which it finds to be seriously adverse, and, therefore, a matter of acute concern. At the same time, the study underplays the adverse economywide impact of AIDS. Given the current prevalence rate, the extrapolation of the household-level impact to the level of the state or the national economy does not reveal a large macro-economic impact. But, this is because the survey, on which the study is based, captures the snapshot of the economy at a given point of time, while the question of the macroeconomic impact of AIDS is essentially a dynamic one. As the HIV epidemic unfolds, its impacts are bound to be deeply compounded. These impacts cannot be assessed in their totality by a mere extrapolation of the household level impact. Furthermore, in 2005, the number of HIV-infected persons exceeds 5 million, and this number is expected to quintuple to between 20 million and 25 million by 2010. With that kind of a jump in the number of HIV cases in the next 5-10 years, there is bound to be a visible impact on the national economy. At present, little or nothing is known about the potential macro-economic impact of HIV and AIDS on the Indian economy. The rough-and-ready estimates of the macro-economic costs of AIDS that are available are of no help in guiding and accelerating the response of the Government of India to the potential threat to the economy imposed by this epidemic. A quantitative assessment of the macro-economic impact of AIDS on the Indian economy, therefore, needs to be undertaken urgently to assist the policy makers. Keeping this in mind, the study analyses the macro-economic and sectoral impacts of HIV and AIDS in India, using a fivesector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.HIV, AIDS, macroeconomic impact of AIDS, computable general equilibrium