Sensor-Driven, Spatially Explicit Agent-Based Models

Conventionally, agent-based models (ABMs) are specified from well-established theory about the systems under investigation. For such models, data is only introduced to ensure the validity of the specified models. In cases where the underlying mechanisms of the system of interest are unknown, rich datasets about the system can reveal patterns and processes of the systems. Sensors have become ubiquitous allowing researchers to capture precise characteristics of entities in both time and space. The combination of data from in situ sensors to geospatial outputs provides a rich resource for characterising geospatial environments and entities on earth. More importantly, the sensor data can capture behaviours and interactions of entities allowing us to visualise emerging patterns from the interactions. However, there is a paucity of standardised methods for the integration of dynamic sensor data streams into ABMs. Further, only few models have attempted to incorporate spatial and temporal data dynamically from sensors for model specification, calibration and validation. This chapter documents the state of the art of methods for bridging the gap between sensor data observations and specification of accurate spatially explicit agent-based models. In addition, this work proposes a conceptual framework for dynamic validation of sensor-driven spatial ABMs to address the risk of model overfitting

Mobility mining for time-dependent urban network modeling

170 p.Mobility planning, monitoring and analysis in such a complex ecosystem as a city are very challenging.Our contributions are expected to be a small step forward towards a more integrated vision of mobilitymanagement. The main hypothesis behind this thesis is that the transportation offer and the mobilitydemand are greatly coupled, and thus, both need to be thoroughly and consistently represented in a digitalmanner so as to enable good quality data-driven advanced analysis. Data-driven analytics solutions relyon measurements. However, sensors do only provide a measure of movements that have already occurred(and associated magnitudes, such as vehicles per hour). For a movement to happen there are two mainrequirements: i) the demand (the need or interest) and ii) the offer (the feasibility and resources). Inaddition, for good measurement, the sensor needs to be located at an adequate location and be able tocollect data at the right moment. All this information needs to be digitalised accordingly in order to applyadvanced data analytic methods and take advantage of good digital transportation resource representation.Our main contributions, focused on mobility data mining over urban transportation networks, can besummarised in three groups. The first group consists of a comprehensive description of a digitalmultimodal transport infrastructure representation from global and local perspectives. The second groupis oriented towards matching diverse sensor data onto the transportation network representation,including a quantitative analysis of map-matching algorithms. The final group of contributions covers theprediction of short-term demand based on various measures of urban mobility

Path planning for first responders in the presence of moving obstacles

Navigation services have gained much importance for all kinds of human activities ranging from tourist navigation to support of rescue teams in disaster management. However, despite the considerable amount of route guidance research that has been performed, many issues that are related to navigation for first responders still need to be addressed. During disasters, emergencies can result in different types of moving obstacles (e.g., fires, plumes, floods), which make some parts of the road network temporarily unavailable. After such incidents occur, responders have to go to different destinations to perform their tasks in the environment affected by the disaster. Therefore they need a path planner that is capable of dealing with such moving obstacles, as well as generating and coordinating their routes quickly and efficiently. During the past decades, more and more hazard simulations, which can modify the models with incorporation of dynamic data from the field, have been developed. These hazard simulations use methods such as data assimilation, stochastic estimation, and adaptive measurement techniques, and are able to generate more reliable results of hazards. This would allow the hazard simulation models to provide valuable information regarding the state of road networks affected by hazards, which supports path planning for first responders among the moving obstacles. The objective of this research is to develop an integrated navigation system for first responders in the presence of moving obstacles. Such system should be able to navigate one or more responders to one or multiple destinations avoiding the moving obstacles, using the predicted information of the moving obstacles generated from by hazard simulations. In this dissertation, the objective we have is expressed as the following research question: How do we safely and efficiently navigate one or more first responders to one or more destinations avoiding moving obstacles? To address the above research questions, this research has been conducted using the following outline: 1). literature review; 2). conceptual design and analysis; 3). implementation of the prototype; and 4). assessment of the prototype and adaption. We investigated previous research related to navigation in disasters, and designed an integrated navigation system architecture, assisting responders in spatial data storage, processing and analysis.Within this architecture, we employ hazard models to provide the predicted information about the obstacles, and select a geo-database to store the data needed for emergency navigation. Throughout the development of the prototype navigation system, we have proposed: a taxonomy of navigation among obstacles, which categorizes navigation cases on basis of type and multiplicity of first responders, destinations, and obstacles; a multi-agent system, which supports information collection from hazard simulations, spatio-temporal data processing and analysis, connection with a geo-database, and route generation in dynamic environments affected by disasters; data models, which structure the information required for finding paths among moving obstacles, capturing both static information, such as the type of the response team, the topology of the road network, and dynamic information, such as changing availabilities of roads during disasters, the uncertainty of the moving obstacles generated from hazard simulations, and the position of the vehicle; path planning algorithms, which generate routes for one or more responders in the presence of moving obstacles. Using the speed of vehicles, departure time, and the predicted information about the state of the road network, etc., three versions (I, II, and III) of Moving Obstacle Avoiding A* (MOAAStar) algorithms are developed: 1). MOAAstar– I/Non-waiting, which supports path planning in the case of forest fires; 2). MOAAstar–II/Waiting, which introduces waiting options to avoid moving obstacles like plumes; 3). MOAAstar–III/Uncertainty, which can handle the uncertainty in predictions of moving obstacles and incorporate the profile of responders into the routing. We have applied the developed prototype navigation system to different navigation cases with moving obstacles. The main conclusions drawn from our applications are summarized as follows: In the proposed taxonomy, we have identified 16 navigation cases that could occur in disaster response and need to be investigated. In addressing these navigation problems, it would be quite useful to employ computer simulations and models, which can make reliable predicted information about responders, the targets, and obstacles, in finding safe routes for the responders. The approach we provide is general and not limited to the cases of plumes and fires. In our data model, the data about the movement of hazards is represented as moving polygons. This allows the data model to be easily adjusted to merge and organize information from models of different types of disasters. For example, the areas that are affected by floods can also be represented as moving polygons. To facilitate the route calculation, not only the data of obstacles but also the information about the state of road networks affected by obstacles need to be structured and stored in the database. In planning routes for responders, the routing algorithms should incorporate the dynamic data of obstacles to be able to avoid the hazards. Besides, other factors, such as the operation time of tasks, the required arrival time, and departure time, also need to be considered to achieve the objectives in a rescue process, e.g., to minimize the delays caused by the moving obstacles. The profile of responders is quite important for generation of feasible routes for a specific disaster situation. The responders may have different protective equipment that allows them to pass through different types of moving obstacles, and thus can have different classification of risk levels to define the state of the road network. By taking into account the profile of the responders, the navigation system can propose customized and safe routes to them, which would facilitate their disaster response processes. On the basis of our findings, we suggest the following topics for future work: As presented Wang and Zlatanova (2013c), there are still a couple of navigation cases that need to be addressed, especially the ones that involve dynamic destinations. More algorithms would be needed to solve these navigation problems. Besides, some extreme cases (e.g., the obstacle covers the target point during the course of an incident) also need to be investigated. Using standard Web services, an Android navigation application, which can provide navigation services in the environment affected by hazards, needs to be developed and tested in both the daily practice and real disasters. In this application, a user interface with various styling options should also be designed for different situations, e.g., waiting and moving, day and night, and urgent and non-urgent. Because the communication infrastructure may not be available or work properly during a disaster response, a decentralized method is needed to allow different users to negotiate with each other and to make local agreements on the distribution of tasks in case there is no support from the central planning system. Another type of multi-agent system would be needed to handle this situation. Introduce variable traveling speed into the re-routing process. The vehicle speed plays an important role in generation of routes avoiding moving obstacle, and can be influenced by many factors, such as the obstacles, the type of vehicles, traffic conditions, and the type of roads. Therefore, it would be needed to investigate how to derive the current and future speed from trajectories of vehicles. Apply the system to aid navigation in various types of natural disasters, using different hazard simulation models (e.g., flood model). More types of agents would be needed and integrated into the system to handle heterogeneous data from these models. Extensions of the data model are also required to meet a wider range of informational needs when multiple disasters occur simultaneously

Traffic Prediction using Artificial Intelligence: Review of Recent Advances and Emerging Opportunities

Traffic prediction plays a crucial role in alleviating traffic congestion which represents a critical problem globally, resulting in negative consequences such as lost hours of additional travel time and increased fuel consumption. Integrating emerging technologies into transportation systems provides opportunities for improving traffic prediction significantly and brings about new research problems. In order to lay the foundation for understanding the open research challenges in traffic prediction, this survey aims to provide a comprehensive overview of traffic prediction methodologies. Specifically, we focus on the recent advances and emerging research opportunities in Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based traffic prediction methods, due to their recent success and potential in traffic prediction, with an emphasis on multivariate traffic time series modeling. We first provide a list and explanation of the various data types and resources used in the literature. Next, the essential data preprocessing methods within the traffic prediction context are categorized, and the prediction methods and applications are subsequently summarized. Lastly, we present primary research challenges in traffic prediction and discuss some directions for future research.Comment: Published in Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies (TR_C), Volume 145, 202

Mobility mining for time-dependent urban network modeling

170 p.Mobility planning, monitoring and analysis in such a complex ecosystem as a city are very challenging.Our contributions are expected to be a small step forward towards a more integrated vision of mobilitymanagement. The main hypothesis behind this thesis is that the transportation offer and the mobilitydemand are greatly coupled, and thus, both need to be thoroughly and consistently represented in a digitalmanner so as to enable good quality data-driven advanced analysis. Data-driven analytics solutions relyon measurements. However, sensors do only provide a measure of movements that have already occurred(and associated magnitudes, such as vehicles per hour). For a movement to happen there are two mainrequirements: i) the demand (the need or interest) and ii) the offer (the feasibility and resources). Inaddition, for good measurement, the sensor needs to be located at an adequate location and be able tocollect data at the right moment. All this information needs to be digitalised accordingly in order to applyadvanced data analytic methods and take advantage of good digital transportation resource representation.Our main contributions, focused on mobility data mining over urban transportation networks, can besummarised in three groups. The first group consists of a comprehensive description of a digitalmultimodal transport infrastructure representation from global and local perspectives. The second groupis oriented towards matching diverse sensor data onto the transportation network representation,including a quantitative analysis of map-matching algorithms. The final group of contributions covers theprediction of short-term demand based on various measures of urban mobility

Delving into Geospatial Data Services: Monitoring Earth for Covid-19 Impact Measure and Decision Making

Geospatial technologies are crucial for many applications and can facilitate decision-making to benefit society.  When the Covid-19 pandemic restricted most of the services, geospatial technologies like satellite remote sensing, geographical information systems, and other allied technologies were found essential.  They speed up many critical decision-making processes in the fight against the pandemic.  This paper explores the significant contributions from the geospatial aspects throughout the pandemic in various research domains.  The potential applications of geospatial technology to assist humanity during the pandemic are thoroughly examined.  We categorized the entire study into i) environmental monitoring services, ii) disease control and management services, and iii) forecasting and decision-making services.  Many valuable findings are derived based on the systematic review of some remarkable works.  The outcome helps us understand how decision-making and forecasting are essential in the fight against the pandemic, with profound implications for future multidisciplinary research using geospatial technology

A stigmergy-based analysis of city hotspots to discover trends and anomalies in urban transportation usage

A key aspect of a sustainable urban transportation system is the effectiveness of transportation policies. To be effective, a policy has to consider a broad range of elements, such as pollution emission, traffic flow, and human mobility. Due to the complexity and variability of these elements in the urban area, to produce effective policies remains a very challenging task. With the introduction of the smart city paradigm, a widely available amount of data can be generated in the urban spaces. Such data can be a fundamental source of knowledge to improve policies because they can reflect the sustainability issues underlying the city. In this context, we propose an approach to exploit urban positioning data based on stigmergy, a bio-inspired mechanism providing scalar and temporal aggregation of samples. By employing stigmergy, samples in proximity with each other are aggregated into a functional structure called trail. The trail summarizes relevant dynamics in data and allows matching them, providing a measure of their similarity. Moreover, this mechanism can be specialized to unfold specific dynamics. Specifically, we identify high-density urban areas (i.e hotspots), analyze their activity over time, and unfold anomalies. Moreover, by matching activity patterns, a continuous measure of the dissimilarity with respect to the typical activity pattern is provided. This measure can be used by policy makers to evaluate the effect of policies and change them dynamically. As a case study, we analyze taxi trip data gathered in Manhattan from 2013 to 2015.Comment: Preprin