On Zone-Based Analysis of Duration Probabilistic Automata

We propose an extension of the zone-based algorithmics for analyzing timed automata to handle systems where timing uncertainty is considered as probabilistic rather than set-theoretic. We study duration probabilistic automata (DPA), expressing multiple parallel processes admitting memoryfull continuously-distributed durations. For this model we develop an extension of the zone-based forward reachability algorithm whose successor operator is a density transformer, thus providing a solution to verification and performance evaluation problems concerning acyclic DPA (or the bounded-horizon behavior of cyclic DPA).Comment: In Proceedings INFINITY 2010, arXiv:1010.611

Using Quantile Regression for Duration Analysis

Quantile regression methods are emerging as a popular technique in econometrics and biometrics for exploring the distribution of duration data. This paper discusses quantile regression for duration analysis allowing for a flexible specification of the functional relationship and of the error distribution. Censored quantile regression address the issue of right censoring of the response variable which is common in duration analysis. We compare quantile regression to standard duration models. Quantile regression do not impose a proportional effect of the covariates on the hazard over the duration time. However, the method can not take account of time{varying covariates and it has not been extended so far to allow for unobserved heterogeneity and competing risks. We also discuss how hazard rates can be estimated using quantile regression methods. A small application with German register data on unemployment duration for younger workers demonstrates the applicability and the usefulness of quantile regression for empirical duration analysis. --censored quantile regression,unemployment duration,unobserved heterogeneity,hazard rate

Analysis of the Swift Gamma-Ray Bursts duration

Two classes of gamma-ray bursts have been identified in the BATSE catalogs characterized by durations shorter and longer than about 2 seconds. There are, however, some indications for the existence of a third type of burst. Swift satellite detectors have different spectral sensitivity than pre-Swift ones for gamma-ray bursts. Therefore it is worth to reanalyze the durations and their distribution and also the classification of GRBs. Using The First BAT Catalog the maximum likelihood estimation was used to analyzed the duration distribution of GRBs. The three log-normal fit is significantly (99.54 % probability) better than the two for the duration distribution. Monte-Carlo simulations also confirm this probability (99.2 %).Comment: NANJING GAMMA-RAY BURST CONFERENCE 200

An Analysis of Exchange Rate Regime Duration

The analysis of mean duration of exchange rate regime reveals that overall durability of regimes has been declining since the 1970s. The durability of intermediate regimes has decreased to the lowest in the 1990s than those in the 1970s and 1980s, which provides a basis for the hollowing out hypothesis. The changing pattern of regime distribution might be associated with the changing pattern of developmental stage.Exchange rate regime duration, developmental stage

A Bioeconomic Analysis of the Duration of Conservation Contracts

Conservation and restoration of native vegetation is often a gradual process which may require many years to transform an ecosystem from one vegetative state to a target ecosystem. This process is stochastic, with some changes potentially irreversible. In contrast, contracts with landholders to undertake conservation measures on their property are typically for less than ten years and often make no contingencies for re-contracting at the end of the contract period. The risk to land holders and conservation agencies of contracts not being renewed and the consequent potential loss of previous investment means including covenants in conservation contracts may be attractive to both parties. A model is developed to empirically examine the optimal dynamic conservation contract and the possible role of covenants in the costs and benefits of contracts.POMDP, biodiversity, contracts, monitoring, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Duration and Interval Hidden Markov Model for Sequential Data Analysis

Analysis of sequential event data has been recognized as one of the essential tools in data modeling and analysis field. In this paper, after the examination of its technical requirements and issues to model complex but practical situation, we propose a new sequential data model, dubbed Duration and Interval Hidden Markov Model (DI-HMM), that efficiently represents "state duration" and "state interval" of data events. This has significant implications to play an important role in representing practical time-series sequential data. This eventually provides an efficient and flexible sequential data retrieval. Numerical experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed DI-HMM

Bayesian Analysis of the Stochastic Conditional Duration Model

A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methodology is developed for estimating the stochastic conditional duration model. The conditional mean of durations between trades is modelled as a latent stochastic process, with the conditional distribution of durations having positive support. The sampling scheme employed is a hybrid of the Gibbs and Metropolis Hastings algorithms, with the latent vector sampled in blocks. The suggested approach is shown to be preferable to the quasi-maximum likelihood approach, and its mixing speed faster than that of an alternative single-move algorithm. The methodology is illustrated with an application to Australian intraday stock market data.Transaction data, Latent factor model, Non-Gaussian state space model, Kalman filter and simulation smoother.

Detailed Classification of Swift's Gamma-Ray Bursts

Earlier classification analyses found three types of gamma-ray bursts (short, long and intermediate in duration) in the BATSE sample. Recent works have shown that these three groups are also present in the RHESSI and the BeppoSAX databases. The duration distribution analysis of the bursts observed by the Swift satellite also favors the three-component model. In this paper, we extend the analysis of the Swift data with spectral information. We show, using the spectral hardness and the duration simultaneously, that the maximum likelihood method favors the three-component against the two-component model. The likelihood also shows that a fourth component is not needed.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journa

Econometric analysis of financial trade processes by discrete mixture duration models

We propose a new framework for modelling the time dependence in duration processes being in force on financial markets. The pioneering ACD model introduced by Engle and Russell (1998) will be extended in a manner that the duration process will be accompanied by an unobservable stochastic process. The Discrete Mixture ACD framework provides us with a general methodology which puts the idea into practice. It is established by introducing a discrete-valued latent regime variable which can be justified in the light of recent market microstructure theories. The empirical application demonstrates its ability to capture specific characteristics of intraday transaction durations while alternative approaches fail. JEL classification: C41, C22, C25, C51, G14