Coupling models of cattle and farms with models of badgers for predicting the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis (TB)

Bovine TB is a major problem for the agricultural industry in several countries. TB can be contracted and spread by species other than cattle and this can cause a problem for disease control. In the UK and Ireland, badgers are a recognised reservoir of infection and there has been substantial discussion about potential control strategies. We present a coupling of individual based models of bovine TB in badgers and cattle, which aims to capture the key details of the natural history of the disease and of both species at approximately county scale. The model is spatially explicit it follows a very large number of cattle and badgers on a different grid size for each species and includes also winter housing. We show that the model can replicate the reported dynamics of both cattle and badger populations as well as the increasing prevalence of the disease in cattle. Parameter space used as input in simulations was swept out using Latin hypercube sampling and sensitivity analysis to model outputs was conducted using mixed effect models. By exploring a large and computationally intensive parameter space we show that of the available control strategies it is the frequency of TB testing and whether or not winter housing is practised that have the most significant effects on the number of infected cattle, with the effect of winter housing becoming stronger as farm size increases. Whether badgers were culled or not explained about 5%, while the accuracy of the test employed to detect infected cattle explained less than 3% of the variance in the number of infected cattle

Assessing financial and flexibility incentives for integrating wind energy in the grid via agent-based modeling

This article provides an agent-based model of a hypothetical standalone electricity network to identify how the feed-in tariffs and the installed capacity of wind power, calculated in percentage of total system demand, affect the electricity consumption from renewables. It includes the mechanism of electricity pricing on the Day Ahead Market (DAM) and the Imbalance Market (IM). The extra production volumes of Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources (RES-E) and the flexibility of electrical consumption of industries is provided as reserves on the IM. Five thousand simulations were run by using the agent-based model to gather data that were then fit in linear regression models. This helped to quantify the effect of feed-in tariffs and installed capacity of wind power on the consumption from renewable energy and market prices. The consumption from renewable sources, expressed as percentage of total system consumption, increased by 8.17% for every 10% increase in installed capacity of wind power. The sharpest increase in renewable energy consumption is observed when a feed-in tariff of 0.04 €/kWh is provided to the wind farm owners, resulting in an average increase of 9.1% and 5.1% in the consumption from renewable sources while the maximum installed capacity of wind power is 35% and 100%, respectively. The regression model for the annualized DAM prices showed an increase by 0.01 €cents/kWh in the DAM prices for every 10% increase in the installed wind power capacity. With every increase of 0.01 €/kWh in the value of feed-in tariffs, the mean DAM price is lowered as compared to the previous value of the feed-in tariff. DAM prices only decrease with increasing installed wind capacity when a feed-in tariff of 0.04 €/kWh is provided. This is observed because all wind power being traded on DAM at a very cheap price. Hence, no volume of electricity is being stored for availability on IM. The regression models for predicting IM prices show that, with every 10% increase in installed capacity of wind power, the annualized IM price decreases by 0.031 and 0.34 €cents/kWh, when installed capacity of wind power is between 0 and 25%, and between 25 and 100%, respectively. The models also showed that, until the maximum installed capacity of wind power is less than 25%, the IM prices increase when the value of feed-in tariff is 0.01 and 0.04 €/kWh, but decrease for a feed-in tariff of 0.02 and 0.03 €/kWh. When installed capacity of wind power is between 25 and 100%, increasing feed-in tariffs to the value of 0.03 €/kWh result in lowering the mean IM price. However, at 0.04 €/kWh, the mean IM price is higher, showing the effect of no storage reserves being available on IM and more expensive reserves being engaged on the IM. The study concludes that the effect of increasing installed capacity of wind power is more significant on increasing consumption of renewable energy and decreasing the DAM and IM prices than the effect of feed-in tariffs. However, the effect of increasing values of both factors on the profit of RES-E producers with storage facilities is not positive, pointing to the need for customized rules and incentives to encourage their market participation and investment in storage facilities

Lattice QCD Thermodynamics on the Grid

We describe how we have used simultaneously ${\cal O}(10^3)$ nodes of the EGEE Grid, accumulating ca. 300 CPU-years in 2-3 months, to determine an important property of Quantum Chromodynamics. We explain how Grid resources were exploited efficiently and with ease, using user-level overlay based on Ganga and DIANE tools above standard Grid software stack. Application-specific scheduling and resource selection based on simple but powerful heuristics allowed to improve efficiency of the processing to obtain desired scientific results by a specified deadline. This is also a demonstration of combined use of supercomputers, to calculate the initial state of the QCD system, and Grids, to perform the subsequent massively distributed simulations. The QCD simulation was performed on a $16^3\times 4$ lattice. Keeping the strange quark mass at its physical value, we reduced the masses of the up and down quarks until, under an increase of temperature, the system underwent a second-order phase transition to a quark-gluon plasma. Then we measured the response of this system to an increase in the quark density. We find that the transition is smoothened rather than sharpened. If confirmed on a finer lattice, this finding makes it unlikely for ongoing experimental searches to find a QCD critical point at small chemical potential

SIMMUNE, a tool for simulating and analyzing immune system behavior

We present a new approach to the simulation and analysis of immune system behavior. The simulations that can be done with our software package called SIMMUNE are based on immunological data that describe the behavior of immune system agents (cells, molecules) on a microscopial (i.e. agent-agent interaction) scale by defining cellular stimulus-response mechanisms. Since the behavior of the agents in SIMMUNE can be very flexibly configured, its application is not limited to immune system simulations. We outline the principles of SIMMUNE's multiscale analysis of emergent structure within the simulated immune system that allow the identification of immunological contexts using minimal a priori assumptions about the higher level organization of the immune system.Comment: 23 pages, 10 figure