Data-Driven Chance Constrained Optimization under Wasserstein Ambiguity Sets

We present a data-driven approach for distributionally robust chance constrained optimization problems (DRCCPs). We consider the case where the decision maker has access to a finite number of samples or realizations of the uncertainty. The chance constraint is then required to hold for all distributions that are close to the empirical distribution constructed from the samples (where the distance between two distributions is defined via the Wasserstein metric). We first reformulate DRCCPs under data-driven Wasserstein ambiguity sets and a general class of constraint functions. When the feasibility set of the chance constraint program is replaced by its convex inner approximation, we present a convex reformulation of the program and show its tractability when the constraint function is affine in both the decision variable and the uncertainty. For constraint functions concave in the uncertainty, we show that a cutting-surface algorithm converges to an approximate solution of the convex inner approximation of DRCCPs. Finally, for constraint functions convex in the uncertainty, we compare the feasibility set with other sample-based approaches for chance constrained programs.Comment: A shorter version is submitted to the American Control Conference, 201

Stochastic MPC with Distributionally Robust Chance Constraints

In this paper we discuss distributional robustness in the context of stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) for linear time-invariant systems. We derive a simple approximation of the MPC problem under an additive zero-mean i.i.d. noise with quadratic cost. Due to the lack of distributional information, chance constraints are enforced as distributionally robust (DR) chance constraints, which we opt to unify with the concept of probabilistic reachable sets (PRS). For Wasserstein ambiguity sets, we propose a simple convex optimization problem to compute the DR-PRS based on finitely many disturbance samples. The paper closes with a numerical example of a double integrator system, highlighting the reliability of the DR-PRS w.r.t. the Wasserstein set and performance of the resulting SMPC.Comment: Extended version with proofs; accepted for presentation at the 21st IFAC World Congress 202

Multi-Hypothesis Interactions in Game-Theoretic Motion Planning

We present a novel method for handling uncertainty about the intentions of non-ego players in dynamic games, with application to motion planning for autonomous vehicles. Equilibria in these games explicitly account for interaction among other agents in the environment, such as drivers and pedestrians. Our method models the uncertainty about the intention of other agents by constructing multiple hypotheses about the objectives and constraints of other agents in the scene. For each candidate hypothesis, we associate a Bernoulli random variable representing the probability of that hypothesis, which may or may not be independent of the probability of other hypotheses. We leverage constraint asymmetries and feedback information patterns to incorporate the probabilities of hypotheses in a natural way. Specifically, increasing the probability associated with a given hypothesis from $0$ to $1$ shifts the responsibility of collision avoidance from the hypothesized agent to the ego agent. This method allows the generation of interactive trajectories for the ego agent, where the level of assertiveness or caution that the ego exhibits is directly related to the easy-to-model uncertainty it maintains about the scene.Comment: For associated mp4 file, see https://youtu.be/x7VtYDrWTW

Consistency of Distributionally Robust Risk-and Chance-Constrained Optimization under Wasserstein Ambiguity Sets

We study stochastic optimization problems with chance and risk constraints, where in the latter, risk is quantified in terms of the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). We consider the distributionally robust versions of these problems, where the constraints are required to hold for a family of distributions constructed from the observed realizations of the uncertainty via the Wasserstein distance. Our main results establish that if the samples are drawn independently from an underlying distribution and the problems satisfy suitable technical assumptions, then the optimal value and optimizers of the distributionally robust versions of these problems converge to the respective quantities of the original problems, as the sample size increases

Safe Zero-Shot Model-Based Learning and Control: A Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Approach

This paper explores distributionally robust zero-shot model-based learning and control using Wasserstein ambiguity sets. Conventional model-based reinforcement learning algorithms struggle to guarantee feasibility throughout the online learning process. We address this open challenge with the following approach. Using a stochastic model-predictive control (MPC) strategy, we augment safety constraints with affine random variables corresponding to the instantaneous empirical distributions of modeling error. We obtain these distributions by evaluating model residuals in real time throughout the online learning process. By optimizing over the worst case modeling error distribution defined within a Wasserstein ambiguity set centered about our empirical distributions, we can approach the nominal constraint boundary in a provably safe way. We validate the performance of our approach using a case study of lithium-ion battery fast charging, a relevant and safety-critical energy systems control application. Our results demonstrate marked improvements in safety compared to a basic learning model-predictive controller, with constraints satisfied at every instance during online learning and control.Comment: In review for CDC2