A Convex Framework for Epidemic Control in Networks

With networks becoming pervasive, research attention on dynamics of epidemic models in networked populations has increased. While a number of well understood epidemic spreading models have been developed, little to no attention has been paid to epidemic control strategies; beyond heuristics usually based on network centrality measures. Since epidemic control resources are typically limited, the problem of optimally allocating resources to control an outbreak becomes of interest. Existing literature considered homogeneous networks, limited the discussion to undirected networks, and largely proposed network centrality-based resource allocation strategies. In this thesis, we consider the well-known Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible spreading model and study the problem of minimum cost resource allocation to control an epidemic outbreak in a networked population. First, we briefly present a heuristic that outperforms network centrality-based algorithms on a stylized version of the problem previously studied in the literature. We then solve the epidemic control problem via a convex optimization framework on weighted, directed networks comprising heterogeneous nodes. Based on our spreading model, we express the problem of controlling an epidemic outbreak in terms of spectral conditions involving the Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue. This enables formulation of the epidemic control problem as a Geometric Program (GP), for which we derive a convex characterization guaranteeing existence of an optimal solution. We consider two formulations of the epidemic control problem -- the first seeks an optimal vaccine and antidote allocation strategy given a constraint on the rate at which the epidemic comes under control. The second formulation seeks to find an optimal allocation strategy given a budget on the resources. The solution framework for both formulations also allows for control of an epidemic outbreak on networks that are not necessarily strongly connected. The thesis further proposes a fully distributed solution to the epidemic control problem via a Distributed Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) algorithm. Our distributed solution enables each node to locally compute its optimum allocation of vaccines and antidotes needed to collectively globally contain the spread of an outbreak, via local exchange of information with its neighbors. Contrasting previous literature, our problem is a constrained optimization problem associated with a directed network comprising non-identical agents. For the different problem formulations considered, illustrations that validate our solutions are presented. This thesis, in sum, proposes a paradigm shift from heuristics towards a convex framework for contagion control in networked populations

Traffic Control for Network Protection Against Spreading Processes

Epidemic outbreaks in human populations are facilitated by the underlying transportation network. We consider strategies for containing a viral spreading process by optimally allocating a limited budget to three types of protection resources: (i) Traffic control resources, (ii), preventative resources and (iii) corrective resources. Traffic control resources are employed to impose restrictions on the traffic flowing across directed edges in the transportation network. Preventative resources are allocated to nodes to reduce the probability of infection at that node (e.g. vaccines), and corrective resources are allocated to nodes to increase the recovery rate at that node (e.g. antidotes). We assume these resources have monetary costs associated with them, from which we formalize an optimal budget allocation problem which maximizes containment of the infection. We present a polynomial time solution to the optimal budget allocation problem using Geometric Programming (GP) for an arbitrary weighted and directed contact network and a large class of resource cost functions. We illustrate our approach by designing optimal traffic control strategies to contain an epidemic outbreak that propagates through a real-world air transportation network.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1309.627

What Makes a Good Plan? An Efficient Planning Approach to Control Diffusion Processes in Networks

In this paper, we analyze the quality of a large class of simple dynamic resource allocation (DRA) strategies which we name priority planning. Their aim is to control an undesired diffusion process by distributing resources to the contagious nodes of the network according to a predefined priority-order. In our analysis, we reduce the DRA problem to the linear arrangement of the nodes of the network. Under this perspective, we shed light on the role of a fundamental characteristic of this arrangement, the maximum cutwidth, for assessing the quality of any priority planning strategy. Our theoretical analysis validates the role of the maximum cutwidth by deriving bounds for the extinction time of the diffusion process. Finally, using the results of our analysis, we propose a novel and efficient DRA strategy, called Maximum Cutwidth Minimization, that outperforms other competing strategies in our simulations.Comment: 18 pages, 3 figure

Optimal vaccination in a stochastic epidemic model of two non-interacting populations

Developing robust, quantitative methods to optimize resource allocations in response to epidemics has the potential to save lives and minimize health care costs. In this paper, we develop and apply a computationally efficient algorithm that enables us to calculate the complete probability distribution for the final epidemic size in a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. Based on these results, we determine the optimal allocations of a limited quantity of vaccine between two non-interacting populations. We compare the stochastic solution to results obtained for the traditional, deterministic SIR model. For intermediate quantities of vaccine, the deterministic model is a poor estimate of the optimal strategy for the more realistic, stochastic case.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figure

Optimal Resource Allocation for Network Protection Against Spreading Processes

We study the problem of containing spreading processes in arbitrary directed networks by distributing protection resources throughout the nodes of the network. We consider two types of protection resources are available: (i) Preventive resources able to defend nodes against the spreading (such as vaccines in a viral infection process), and (ii) corrective resources able to neutralize the spreading after it has reached a node (such as antidotes). We assume that both preventive and corrective resources have an associated cost and study the problem of finding the cost-optimal distribution of resources throughout the nodes of the network. We analyze these questions in the context of viral spreading processes in directed networks. We study the following two problems: (i) Given a fixed budget, find the optimal allocation of preventive and corrective resources in the network to achieve the highest level of containment, and (ii) when a budget is not specified, find the minimum budget required to control the spreading process. We show that both resource allocation problems can be solved in polynomial time using Geometric Programming (GP) for arbitrary directed graphs of nonidentical nodes and a wide class of cost functions. Furthermore, our approach allows to optimize simultaneously over both preventive and corrective resources, even in the case of cost functions being node-dependent. We illustrate our approach by designing optimal protection strategies to contain an epidemic outbreak that propagates through an air transportation network

Dynamic Resource Management in Clouds: A Probabilistic Approach

Dynamic resource management has become an active area of research in the Cloud Computing paradigm. Cost of resources varies significantly depending on configuration for using them. Hence efficient management of resources is of prime interest to both Cloud Providers and Cloud Users. In this work we suggest a probabilistic resource provisioning approach that can be exploited as the input of a dynamic resource management scheme. Using a Video on Demand use case to justify our claims, we propose an analytical model inspired from standard models developed for epidemiology spreading, to represent sudden and intense workload variations. We show that the resulting model verifies a Large Deviation Principle that statistically characterizes extreme rare events, such as the ones produced by "buzz/flash crowd effects" that may cause workload overflow in the VoD context. This analysis provides valuable insight on expectable abnormal behaviors of systems. We exploit the information obtained using the Large Deviation Principle for the proposed Video on Demand use-case for defining policies (Service Level Agreements). We believe these policies for elastic resource provisioning and usage may be of some interest to all stakeholders in the emerging context of cloud networkingComment: IEICE Transactions on Communications (2012). arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1209.515

Networking - A Statistical Physics Perspective

Efficient networking has a substantial economic and societal impact in a broad range of areas including transportation systems, wired and wireless communications and a range of Internet applications. As transportation and communication networks become increasingly more complex, the ever increasing demand for congestion control, higher traffic capacity, quality of service, robustness and reduced energy consumption require new tools and methods to meet these conflicting requirements. The new methodology should serve for gaining better understanding of the properties of networking systems at the macroscopic level, as well as for the development of new principled optimization and management algorithms at the microscopic level. Methods of statistical physics seem best placed to provide new approaches as they have been developed specifically to deal with non-linear large scale systems. This paper aims at presenting an overview of tools and methods that have been developed within the statistical physics community and that can be readily applied to address the emerging problems in networking. These include diffusion processes, methods from disordered systems and polymer physics, probabilistic inference, which have direct relevance to network routing, file and frequency distribution, the exploration of network structures and vulnerability, and various other practical networking applications.Comment: (Review article) 71 pages, 14 figure