A Novel Method for Landslide Displacement Prediction by Integrating Advanced Computational Intelligence Algorithms

Landslide displacement prediction is considered as an essential component for developing early warning systems. The modelling of conventional forecast methods requires enormous monitoring data that limit its application. To conduct accurate displacement prediction with limited data, a novel method is proposed and applied by integrating three computational intelligence algorithms namely: the wavelet transform (WT), the artificial bees colony (ABC), and the kernel-based extreme learning machine (KELM). At first, the total displacement was decomposed into several sub-sequences with different frequencies using the WT. Next each sub-sequence was predicted separately by the KELM whose parameters were optimized by the ABC. Finally the predicted total displacement was obtained by adding all the predicted sub-sequences. The Shuping landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China was taken as a case study. The performance of the new method was compared with the WT-ELM, ABC-KELM, ELM, and the support vector machine (SVM) methods. Results show that the prediction accuracy can be improved by decomposing the total displacement into sub-sequences with various frequencies and by predicting them separately. The ABC-KELM algorithm shows the highest prediction capacity followed by the ELM and SVM. Overall, the proposed method achieved excellent performance both in terms of accuracy and stability

Landslide displacement forecasting using deep learning and monitoring data across selected sites

Accurate early warning systems for landslides are a reliable risk-reduction strategy that may significantly reduce fatalities and economic losses. Several machine learning methods have been examined for this purpose, underlying deep learning (DL) models’ remarkable prediction capabilities. The long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) algorithms are the sole DL model studied in the extant comparisons. However, several other DL algorithms are suitable for time series forecasting tasks. In this paper, we assess, compare, and describe seven DL methods for forecasting future landslide displacement: multi-layer perception (MLP), LSTM, GRU, 1D convolutional neural network (1D CNN), 2xLSTM, bidirectional LSTM (bi-LSTM), and an architecture composed of 1D CNN and LSTM (Conv-LSTM). The investigation focuses on four landslides with different geographic locations, geological settings, time step dimensions, and measurement instruments. Two landslides are located in an artificial reservoir context, while the displacement of the other two is influenced just by rainfall. The results reveal that the MLP, GRU, and LSTM models can make reliable predictions in all four scenarios, while the Conv- LSTM model outperforms the others in the Baishuihe landslide, where the landslide is highly seasonal. No evident performance differences were found for landslides inside artificial reservoirs rather than outside. Furthermore, the research shows that MLP is better adapted to forecast the highest displacement peaks, while LSTM and GRU are better suited to model lower displacement peaks. We believe the findings of this research will serve as a precious aid when implementing a DL-based landslide early warning system (LEWS).SUPPORTO SCIENTIFICO PER L’OTTIMIZZAZIONE, IMPLEMENTAZIONE E GESTIONE DEL SISTEMA DI MONITORAGGIO CON AGGIORNAMENTO DELLE SOGLIE DI ALLERTAMENTO DEL FENOMENO FRANOSO DI SANT’ANDREA – PERAROLO DI CADORE (BL)” and the Spanish Grant “SARAI, PID2020-116540RB-C21,MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033” and “RISKCOASTInSAR displacement data of the El Arrecife landslideGeohazard Exploitation Platform (GEP) of the European Space AgencyNoR Projects Sponsorship (Project ID: 63737

Establishment of Landslide Groundwater Level Prediction Model Based on GA-SVM and Influencing Factor Analysis

The monitoring and prediction of the landslide groundwater level is a crucial part of landslide early warning systems. In this study, Tangjiao landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGRA) in China was taken as a case study. Three groundwater level monitoring sensors were installed in different locations of the landslide. The monitoring data indicated that the fluctuation of groundwater level is significantly consistent with rainfall and reservoir level in time, but there is a lag. In addition, there is a spatial difference in the impact of reservoir levels on the landslide groundwater level. The data of two monitoring locations were selected for establishing the prediction model of groundwater. Combined with the qualitative and quantitative analysis, the influencing factors were selected, respectively, to establish the hybrid Genetic Algorithm-Support Vector Machine (GA-SVM) prediction model. The single-factor GA-SVM without considering influencing factors and the backpropagation neural network (BPNN) model were adopted to make comparisons. The results showed that the multi-factor GA-SVM performed the best, followed by multi-factor BPNN and single-factor GA-SVM. We found that the prediction accuracy can be improved by considering the influencing factor. The proposed GA-SVM model combines the advantages of each algorithm; it can effectively construct the response relationship between groundwater level fluctuations and influencing factors. Above all, the multi-factor GA-SVM is an effective method for the prediction of landslides groundwater in the TGRA

Influencing factor analysis and displacement prediction in reservoir landslides − a case study of Three Gorges Reservoir (China)

Potrebno je učinkovito predviđati kako će se vremenski odvijati kumulativni pomaci povezani s klizištima akumulacija. Međutim, tradicionalne metode ne obuhvaćaju dinamički uspostavljene odnose između deformacije klizišta i faktora koji na to utječu. Dakle, uveden je novi pristup na temelju eksponencijalnog izglađivanja (EI) i multivarijatnih metoda ekstremno učećeg stroja kako bi se otkrili čimbenici od utjecaja na deformacije klizišta i predvidjele vrijednosti pomaka klizišta. Prvo su analizirani faktori koji utječu na deformacije klizišta akumulacije. Zatim je EI postupak rabljen za predviđanje trajanja trenda pomaka i dobivanje trajanja periodičnog pomaka određivanjem trajanja trenda iz kumulativnog pomaka. Dalje, analizirani su multivarijatni utjecajni faktori kako bi objasnili trajanje periodičnog pomaka. Nakon toga, postavljen je model ekstremno učećeg stroja kako bi se predvidjelo trajanje periodičnog pomaka na temelju multivarijatne analize utjecajnih čimbenika. Konačno, dobivene su vrijednosti predviđanja kumulativnog pomaka dodavanjem vrijednosti predviđanja trenda i periodičnog pomaka. Bazimen i Baishuihe klizišta u području Three Gorges Reservoir odabrana su kao studije slučaja. Predloženi model EI-multivarijatnog ekstremno učećeg stroja (ES-MELM) uspoređen je s modelom EI-univarijantnog ekstremno učećeg stroja (ES-ELM). Rezultati pokazuju da je deformacija klizišta akumulacije uglavnom pod utjecajem periodičnih oscilacija razine vode akumulacije i obilnih kiša. Osim toga, predloženi model pridonosi točnijem predviđanju od ES-ELM modela.The developmental tendencies of cumulative displacement time series associated with reservoir landslides influenced by large water reservoirs must be effectively predicted. However, traditional methods do not encompass the dynamic response relationships between landslide deformation and its influencing factors. Therefore, a new approach based on the exponential smoothing (ES) and multivariate extreme learning machine methods was introduced to reveal the influencing factors of landslide deformation and to forecast landslide displacement values. First, the influencing factors of reservoir landslide deformation were analysed. Second, the ES method was used to predict the trend term displacement and obtain the periodic term displacement by determining the trend term from the cumulative displacement. Next, multivariate influencing factors were analysed to explain the periodic term displacement. Then, an extreme learning machine (ELM) model was established to predict the periodic term displacement based on the multivariable analysis of influencing factors. Finally, cumulative displacement prediction values were obtained by adding the trend and periodic displacement prediction values. The Bazimen and Baishuihe landslides in Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) were selected as case studies. The proposed ES-multivariate ELM (ES-MELM) model was compared to the ES-univariate ELM (ES-ELM) model. The results show that reservoir landslide deformation is mainly influenced by periodic reservoir water level fluctuations and heavy rainfall. Additionally, the proposed model yields more accurate predictions than the ES-ELM model

Remote Sensing of Natural Hazards

Each year, natural hazards such as earthquakes, cyclones, flooding, landslides, wildfires, avalanches, volcanic eruption, extreme temperatures, storm surges, drought, etc., result in widespread loss of life, livelihood, and critical infrastructure globally. With the unprecedented growth of the human population, largescale development activities, and changes to the natural environment, the frequency and intensity of extreme natural events and consequent impacts are expected to increase in the future.Technological interventions provide essential provisions for the prevention and mitigation of natural hazards. The data obtained through remote sensing systems with varied spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions particularly provide prospects for furthering knowledge on spatiotemporal patterns and forecasting of natural hazards. The collection of data using earth observation systems has been valuable for alleviating the adverse effects of natural hazards, especially with their near real-time capabilities for tracking extreme natural events. Remote sensing systems from different platforms also serve as an important decision-support tool for devising response strategies, coordinating rescue operations, and making damage and loss estimations.With these in mind, this book seeks original contributions to the advanced applications of remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) techniques in understanding various dimensions of natural hazards through new theory, data products, and robust approaches

Advancements, Challenges, and Future Directions in Rainfall-Induced Landslide Prediction: A Comprehensive Review

Rainfall-induced landslides threaten lives and properties globally. To address this, researchers have developed various methods and models that forecast the likelihood and behavior of rainfall-induced landslides. These methodologies and models can be broadly classified into three categories: empirical, physical-based, and machine-learning approaches. However, these methods have limitations in terms of data availability, accuracy, and applicability. This paper reviews the current state-of-the-art of rainfall-induced landslide prediction methods, focusing on the methods, models, and challenges involved. The novelty of this study lies in its comprehensive analysis of existing prediction techniques and the identification of their limitations. By synthesizing a vast body of research, it highlights emerging trends and advancements, providing a holistic perspective on the subject matter. The analysis points out that future research opportunities lie in interdisciplinary collaborations, advanced data integration, remote sensing, climate change impact analysis, numerical modeling, real-time monitoring, and machine learning improvements. In conclusion, the prediction of rainfall-induced landslides is a complex and multifaceted challenge, and no single approach is universally superior. Integrating different methods and leveraging emerging technologies offer the best way forward for improving accuracy and reliability in landslide prediction, ultimately enhancing our ability to manage and mitigate this geohazard

Advancements, Challenges, and Future Directions in Rainfall-Induced Landslide Prediction: A Comprehensive Review

Rainfall-induced landslides threaten lives and properties globally. To address this, researchers have developed various methods and models that forecast the likelihood and behavior of rainfall-induced landslides. These methodologies and models can be broadly classified into three categories: empirical, physical-based, and machine-learning approaches. However, these methods have limitations in terms of data availability, accuracy, and applicability. This paper reviews the current state-of-the-art of rainfall-induced landslide prediction methods, focusing on the methods, models, and challenges involved. The novelty of this study lies in its comprehensive analysis of existing prediction techniques and the identification of their limitations. By synthesizing a vast body of research, it highlights emerging trends and advancements, providing a holistic perspective on the subject matter. The analysis points out that future research opportunities lie in interdisciplinary collaborations, advanced data integration, remote sensing, climate change impact analysis, numerical modeling, real-time monitoring, and machine learning improvements. In conclusion, the prediction of rainfall-induced landslides is a complex and multifaceted challenge, and no single approach is universally superior. Integrating different methods and leveraging emerging technologies offer the best way forward for improving accuracy and reliability in landslide prediction, ultimately enhancing our ability to manage and mitigate this geohazard

Sinkhole susceptibility mapping: A comparison between Bayes-based machine learning algorithms

Land degradation has been recognized as one of the most adverse environmental impacts during the last century. The occurrence of sinkholes is increasing dramatically in many regions worldwide contributing to land degradation. The rise in the sinkhole frequency is largely due to human-induced hydrological alterations that favour dissolution and subsidence processes. Mitigating detrimental impacts associated with sinkholes requires understanding different aspects of this phenomenon such as the controlling factors and the spatial distribution patterns. This research illustrates the development and validation of sinkhole susceptibility models in Hamadan Province, Iran, where a large number of sinkholes are occurring under poorly understood circumstances. Several susceptibility models were developed with a training sample of sinkholes, a number of conditioning factors, and four different statistical approaches: naïve Bayes, Bayes net (BN), logistic regression, and Bayesian logistic regression. Ten conditioning factors were initially considered. Factors with negligible contribution to the quality of predictions, according to the information gain ratio technique, were discarded for the development of the final models. The validation of susceptibility models, performed using different statistical indices and receiver operating characteristic curves, revealed that the BN model has the highest prediction capability in the study area. This model provides reliable predictions on the future distribution of sinkholes, which can be used by watershed and land use managers for designing hazard and land-degradation mitigation plans

Pathways and challenges of the application of artificial intelligence to geohazards modelling

© 2020 International Association for Gondwana Research The application of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning in geohazard modelling has been rapidly growing in recent years, a trend that is observed in several research and application areas thanks to recent advances in AI. As a result, the increasing dependence on data driven studies has made its practical applications towards geohazards (landslides, debris flows, earthquakes, droughts, floods, glacier studies) an interesting prospect. These aforementioned geohazards were responsible for roughly 80% of the economic loss in the past two decades caused by all natural hazards. The present study analyses the various domains of geohazards which have benefited from classical machine learning approaches and highlights the future course of direction in this field. The emergence of deep learning has fulfilled several gaps in: i) classification; ii) seasonal forecasting as well as forecasting at longer lead times; iii) temporal based change detection. Apart from the usual challenges of dataset availability, climate change and anthropogenic activities, this review paper emphasizes that the future studies should focus on consecutive events along with integration of physical models. The recent catastrophe in Japan and Australia makes a compelling argument to focus towards consecutive events. The availability of higher temporal resolution and multi-hazard dataset will prove to be essential, but the key would be to integrate it with physical models which would improve our understanding of the mechanism involved both in single and consecutive hazard scenario. Geohazards would eventually be a data problem, like geosciences, and therefore it is essential to develop models that would be capable of handling large voluminous data. The future works should also revolve towards interpretable models with the hope of providing a reasonable explanation of the results, thereby achieving the ultimate goal of Explainable AI