Knowledge-infused Deep Learning Enables Interpretable Landslide Forecasting

Forecasting how landslides will evolve over time or whether they will fail is a challenging task due to a variety of factors, both internal and external. Despite their considerable potential to address these challenges, deep learning techniques lack interpretability, undermining the credibility of the forecasts they produce. The recent development of transformer-based deep learning offers untapped possibilities for forecasting landslides with unprecedented interpretability and nonlinear feature learning capabilities. Here, we present a deep learning pipeline that is capable of predicting landslide behavior holistically, which employs a transformer-based network called LFIT to learn complex nonlinear relationships from prior knowledge and multiple source data, identifying the most relevant variables, and demonstrating a comprehensive understanding of landslide evolution and temporal patterns. By integrating prior knowledge, we provide improvement in holistic landslide forecasting, enabling us to capture diverse responses to various influencing factors in different local landslide areas. Using deformation observations as proxies for measuring the kinetics of landslides, we validate our approach by training models to forecast reservoir landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir and creeping landslides on the Tibetan Plateau. When prior knowledge is incorporated, we show that interpretable landslide forecasting effectively identifies influential factors across various landslides. It further elucidates how local areas respond to these factors, making landslide behavior and trends more interpretable and predictable. The findings from this study will contribute to understanding landslide behavior in a new way and make the proposed approach applicable to other complex disasters influenced by internal and external factors in the future

PREDICTION OF DEFORMATION CAUSED BY LANDSLIDES BASED ON GRAPH CONVOLUTION NETWORKS ALGORITHM AND DINSAR TECHNIQUE

Abstract. Around the world, the occurrence of landslides has become one of the greatest threats to human life, property, infrastructure, and natural environments. Despite extensive research and discussions on the spatiotemporal dependence of landslide displacements, there is still a lack of understanding concerning the factors that appear to control displacement distribution in landslides because of their significant variations. This paper implements a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) to predict displacement following the Moio della Civitella landslide in southern Italy and identify factors that may affect the distribution of movement following the landslide. An interferometric technique, known as permanent scatter interferometry (PSI), has been developed based on Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite imagery to derive permanent scatter points that can be used to represent the deformation of landslides. This study utilized the GCN regression model applied to PSs points and data reflecting geological and geomorphological factors to extract the interdependency between paired data points, resulting in an adjacency matrix of the interval [0, 0,8). The proposed model outperforms conventional machine learning and deep learning algorithms such as linear regression (LR), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), Support vector regression (SVR), Decision tree, lasso, and artificial neural network (ANN). The absolute error between the actual and predicted deformation is used to evaluate the proposed model, which is less than 2 millimeters for most test set points

Landslide Surface Displacement Prediction Based on VSXC-LSTM Algorithm

Landslide is a natural disaster that can easily threaten local ecology, people's lives and property. In this paper, we conduct modelling research on real unidirectional surface displacement data of recent landslides in the research area and propose a time series prediction framework named VMD-SegSigmoid-XGBoost-ClusterLSTM (VSXC-LSTM) based on variational mode decomposition, which can predict the landslide surface displacement more accurately. The model performs well on the test set. Except for the random item subsequence that is hard to fit, the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the trend item subsequence and the periodic item subsequence are both less than 0.1, and the RMSE is as low as 0.006 for the periodic item prediction module based on XGBoost\footnote{Accepted in ICANN2023}

Predicting the movements of permanently installed electrodes on an active landslide using time-lapse geoelectrical resistivity data only

If electrodes move during geoelectrical resistivity monitoring and their new positions are not incorporated in the inversion, then the resulting tomographic images exhibit artefacts that can obscure genuine time-lapse resistivity changes in the subsurface. The effects of electrode movements on time-lapse resistivity tomography are investigated using a simple analytical model and real data. The correspondence between the model and the data is sufficiently good to be able to predict the effects of electrode movements with reasonable accuracy. For the linear electrode arrays and 2D inversions under consideration, the data are much more sensitive to longitudinal than transverse or vertical movements. Consequently the model can be used to invert the longitudinal offsets of the electrodes from their known baseline positions using only the time-lapse ratios of the apparent resistivity data. The example datasets are taken from a permanently installed electrode array on an active lobe of a landslide. Using two sets with different levels of noise and subsurface resistivity changes, it is found that the electrode positions can be recovered to an accuracy of 4 % of the baseline electrode spacing. This is sufficient to correct the artefacts in the resistivity images, and provides for the possibility of monitoring the movement of the landslide and its internal hydraulic processes simultaneously using electrical resistivity tomography only

An ensemble neural network approach for space-time landslide predictive modelling

There is an urgent need for accurate and effective Landslide Early Warning Systems (LEWS). Most LEWS are currently based on a single temporally-aggregated measure of rainfall derived from either in-situ measurements or satellite-based rainfall estimates. Relying on a summary metric of precipitation may not capture the complexity of the rainfall signal and its dynamics in space and time in triggering landslides. Here, we present a proof-of-concept for constructing a LEWS that is based on an integrated spatio-temporal modelling framework. Our proposed methodology builds upon a recent approach that uses a daily rainfall time series instead of the traditional cumulated scalar approximation. Specifically, we partition the study area into slope units and use a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) to process a satellite-derived rainfall time series and combine the output features with a second neural network (NN) tasked with capturing the effect of terrain characteristics. To assess if our approach enhances accuracy, we applied it in Vietnam and compared it against a standard modelling approach that incorporates terrain characteristics and cumulative rainfall over 14 days. Our protocol leads to better performance in hindcasting landslides when using past rainfall estimates (CHIRPS), as compared to the standard modelling approach. While not tested here, our approach can be extended to rainfall obtained from weather forecasts, potentially leading to actual landslide forecasts