Household structure and infectious disease transmission

One of the central tenets of modern infectious disease epidemiology is that an understanding of heterogeneities, both in host demography and transmission, allows control to be efficiently optimized. Due to the strong interactions present, households are one of the most important heterogeneities to consider, both in terms of predicting epidemic severity and as a target for intervention. We consider these effects in the context of pandemic influenza in Great Britain, and find that there is significant local (ward-level) variation in the basic reproductive ratio, with some regions predicted to suffer 50% faster growth rate of infection than the mean. Childhood vaccination was shown to be highly effective at controlling an epidemic, generally outperforming random vaccination and substantially reducing the variation between regions; only nine out of over 10 000 wards did not obey this rule and these can be identified as demographically atypical regions. Since these benefits of childhood vaccination are a product of correlations between household size and number of dependent children in the household, our results are qualitatively robust for a variety of disease scenarios

Social encounter networks : collective properties and disease transmission

A fundamental challenge of modern infectious disease epidemiology is to quantify the networks of social and physical contacts through which transmission can occur. Understanding the collective properties of these interactions is critical for both accurate prediction of the spread of infection and determining optimal control measures. However, even the basic properties of such networks are poorly quantified, forcing predictions to be made based on strong assumptions concerning network structure. Here, we report on the results of a large-scale survey of social encounters mainly conducted in Great Britain. First, we characterize the distribution of contacts, which possesses a lognormal body and a power-law tail with an exponent of −2.45; we provide a plausible mechanistic model that captures this form. Analysis of the high level of local clustering of contacts reveals additional structure within the network, implying that social contacts are degree assortative. Finally, we describe the epidemiological implications of this local network structure: these contradict the usual predictions from networks with heavy-tailed degree distributions and contain public-health messages about control. Our findings help us to determine the types of realistic network structure that should be assumed in future population level studies of infection transmission, leading to better interpretations of epidemiological data and more appropriate policy decisions

Socioeconomic Determinants of Disease Transmission in Cambodia

The process of acquiring an infection has two components: first, exposure through proximity to another infected individual, and second, transmission of the disease. Earlier studies of the socioeconomic factors that affect the probability of acquiring an illness assume uniform exposure to infected individuals and may therefore result in biased estimates. This paper develops an empirical model, consistent with epidemiological models of spread of infections, to estimate the impact of socioeconomic variables on the extent of disease transmission within villages in Cambodia. Data from the 1997 Cambodia Socioeconomic Survey are used in this analysis.

Integrated Serologic Surveillance of Population Immunity and Disease Transmission.

Antibodies are unique among biomarkers in their ability to identify persons with protective immunity to vaccine-preventable diseases and to measure past exposure to diverse pathogens. Most infectious disease surveillance maintains a single-disease focus, but broader testing of existing serologic surveys with multiplex antibody assays would create new opportunities for integrated surveillance. In this perspective, we highlight multiple areas for potential synergy where integrated surveillance could add more value to public health efforts than the current trend of independent disease monitoring through vertical programs. We describe innovations in laboratory and data science that should accelerate integration and identify remaining challenges with respect to specimen collection, testing, and analysis. Throughout, we illustrate how information generated through integrated surveillance platforms can create new opportunities to more quickly and precisely identify global health program gaps that range from undervaccination to emerging pathogens to multilayered health disparities that span diverse communicable diseases

Key dimensions for the prevention and control of communicable diseases in institutional settings. a scoping review to guide the development of a tool to strengthen preparedness at migrant holding centres in the EU/EEA

Migrant centres, as other institutions hosting closed or semi-open communities, may face specific challenges in preventing and controlling communicable disease transmission, particularly during times of large sudden influx. However, there is dearth of evidence on how to prioritise investments in aspects such as human resources, medicines and vaccines, sanitation and disinfection, and physical infrastructures to prevent/control communicable disease outbreaks. We analysed frequent drivers of communicable disease transmission/issues for outbreak management in institutions hosting closed or semi-open communities, including migrant centres, and reviewed existing assessment tools to guide the development of a European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) checklist tool to strengthen preparedness against communicable disease outbreaks in migrant centres. Among articles/reports focusing specifically on migrant centres, outbreaks through multiple types of disease transmission were described as possible/occurred. Human resources and physical infrastructure were the dimensions most frequently identified as crucial for preventing and mitigating outbreaks. This review also recognised a lack of common agreed standards to guide and assess preparedness activities in migrant centres, thereby underscoring the need for a capacity-oriented ECDC preparedness checklist tool