Fund managers - why the best might be the worst: On the evolutionary vigor of risk-seeking behavior

This article explores the influence of competitive conditions on the evolutionary fitness of different risk preferences. As a practical example, the professional competition between fund managers is considered. To explore how different settings of competition parameters, the exclusion rate and the exclusion interval, affect individual investment behavior, an evolutionary model based on a genetic algorithm is developed. The simulation experiments indicate that the influence of competitve conditions on investment behavior and attitudes towards risk is significant. What is alarming is that intense competitive pressure generates riskseeking behavior and undermines the predominance of the most skilled. --risk preferences,competition,genetic programming,fund managers,portfolio theory

Can the target set for reducing childhood overweight and obesity be met? : a system dynamics modelling study in New South Wales, Australia

The persistent prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity raises significant concerns about the impact on health, society and the economy. Responding to a target announced in September 2015 by the New South Wales (Australia) Premier to reduce childhood overweight and obesity by five percentage points by 2025, a system dynamics model was developed to support Government and stakeholders responsible for meeting the target. A participatory model building process, drawing cross-sectorial expertise, was undertaken to estimate the individual and combined impact of interventions on meeting the target. The model demonstrated that it is theoretically possible to meet the target by implementing a comprehensive combination of policies and programmes. When limited to existing and enhanced population health interventions, the modelled result did not reach the target. The project provides an example of how participatory simulation modelling can combine a broad range of interventions together into likely scenarios and usefully inform government decision-making

Heterogeneous Retirement Savings Strategy Selection with Reinforcement Learning

Saving and investment behaviour is crucial for all individuals to guarantee their welfare during work-life and retirement. We introduce a deep reinforcement learning model in which agents learn optimal portfolio allocation and saving strategies suitable for their heterogeneous profiles. The environment is calibrated with occupation- and age-dependent income dynamics. The research focuses on heterogeneous income trajectories dependent on agents’ profiles and incorporates the parameterisation of agents’ behaviours. The model provides a new flexible methodology to estimate lifetime consumption and investment choices for individuals with heterogeneous profiles

Modelling Individual Behaviour in European Labour–Education Market System

Elektroniskā versija nesatur pielikumusPromocijas darba mērķis ir izstrādāt indivīda uzvedības tradicionālos ekonometriskos un aģentu modeļus Eiropas darba-izglītības tirgu sistēmā (LEMS), akcentējot pārlieku izglītošanu un sociālo tīklu ietekmi. Tiek pētīti indivīda pārliekas izglītošanas varbūtību ietekmējošie faktori. Ir identificēti un analizēti pārliekas izglītošanas varbūtību ietekmējošie konkrētie indivīda demogrāfijas, personības, imigranta statusa, nozares, darba tirgus vēstures un izglītības jomas (trešajā izglītības līmenī) efekti. Pārliekas izglītošanas laika dinamiku labi izskaidro trīs makrolīmeņa mainīgie: augstskolu absolventu daļa no strādājošajiem, strādājošo profesijās no Starptautiskās standarta profesiju klasifikācijas (ISCO) 1.-3. lielām grupām daļa no visiem strādājošajiem un bezdarba līmenis. Tiek arī pētīti svarīgi darba tirgus un izglītības rezultāti, kurus ietekmē pārlieka izglītošana. Pārlieka izglītošana negatīvi ietekmē indivīda psiholoģisko stāvokli darba tirgū – samazina apmierinātību ar darbu un palielina varbūtību aiziet no esošā darba – kā arī ietekmē motivāciju turpināt studijas doktorantūrā. Tiek izvērtēta aģentu imitācijas modelēšanas pieejas izmantošanas iespēja LEMS modelēšanā. Tiek piedāvāti un analizēti trīs aģentu modeļi. Pirmais inkorporē darba apmierinātību darba tirgus modelī, kurā apmierinātība ar darbu ir atkarīga no monetārās kompensācijas, sociālā atbalsta, darba daudzveidības un karjeras iespējām. Otrais modelis analizē, kā tiek izvēlētas izglītības jomas un ar kādām problēmām saskaras aģenti, kad tie nevar pareizi izvēlēties savu labāko izglītības jomu. Trešais modelis ir saistīts ar lēmumu sākt studijas universitātē un politikas reakciju uz pārlieku izglītošanas problēmu, kur neiejaukšanās (laissez-faire) princips ir salīdzināts ar ierobežotu iespēju sākt studijas augstskolās. Piedāvātā analīze ļauj izvērtēt esošo LEMS politiku darbību un formulēt svarīgas politikas rekomendācijas.The dissertation aims at developing conventional econometric and agent-based models of individual behaviour in European labour–education market system (LEMS) with a focus on overeducation and the influence of social networks. Factors affecting the probability of overeducation of an individual are studied. Specific effects from individual’s demographics, personality, immigrant status, industry, labour market history and field of study (at tertiary education level) on their overeducation probability are identified and discussed. The temporal dynamics of overeducation are well explained by three macro-level variables: the share of tertiary graduates, the share of occupations from the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) major groups 1 through 3 and unemployment. Important labour-market and educational outcomes influenced by overeducation are also studied. Overeducation is found to have detrimental effects on the psychological state of the individual in the labour market – specifically, on job satisfaction and the propensity to quit the current job – and affect the motivation of continuing studies at doctoral level. The possibility of using agent-based simulations for modelling LEMS is assessed. Three agent-based models are proposed and analysed. The first incorporates job satisfaction into a labour-market model, where job satisfaction is based on monetary benefits, social support, job variety and career opportunities. The second model considers how fields of study are chosen and the problems faced by agents when they are unable to correctly choose their best field. The third is concerned with the decision to enter studies at the university and policy responses to the problem of overeducation, where the laissez-faire principle is compared with restricting access to education market. The analysis presented here allows assessing the performance of current LEMS policies and formulate important policy recommendations

Choosing to care : the determinants of nurses job preferences in South Africa

There is a growing recognition that a better understanding of the heterogeneity of motives and determinants of labour market choices is needed to inform policies intended to redress current maldistribution of health workers, particularly in developing countries. This thesis explored the influence of altruism and other individual characteristics on nurses' job preferences in South Africa, to investigate the impact of potential policy interventions designed to attract nurses to under-served areas. Primary data collection was carried out with a sample of 377 nurses. First, measures of altruism were constructed by playing the dictator game, a behavioural economic game. The nurses showed greater altruism than is usually seen in such experiments, suggesting that more altruistic individuals self-select into the nursing profession. Since actual choices could not be observed, a labelled choice experiment was then used to reproduce the job opportunities offered to nurses at the beginning of their career. In the analysis of nurses' job preferences, a positive correlation was found between pro-social values and preferences for public jobs, while individuals from rural backgrounds were more likely to prefer rural jobs. Another choice experiment was used to model the effects of potential policy levers to make rural public jobs more attractive. The analysis showed that packages including monetary incentives were often the most powerful, and it confirmed the preferences of nurses from rural backgrounds. Combining the two choice experiments, a Markov model was constructed to predict the long-term effects of different policies on nurses' distribution in the labour market. Building on these outcomes, a cost-effectiveness model compares the effectiveness of several intervention packages to attract nurses to rural areas. This analysis showed that monetary incentives are never cost-effective, unlike education opportunities and the selection of more individuals who were more likely to prefer rural areas, such as people of rural origins

The Career Costs of Children

This paper analyzes the life-cycle career costs associated with child rearing and decomposes their effects into unearned wages (as women drop out of the labor market), loss of human capital, and selection into more child-friendly occupations. We estimate a dynamic life-cycle model of fertility, occupational choice, and labor supply using detailed survey and administrative data for Germany for numerous birth cohorts across different regions. We use this model to analyze both the male-female wage gap as it evolves from labor market entry onward and the effect of pro-fertility policies. We show that a substantial portion of the gender wage gap is explainable by realized and expected fertility and that the long-run effect of policies encouraging fertility are considerably lower than the short-run effects typically estimated in the literature.fertility, labor supply, occupational choice

Academic Year 2019-2020 Faculty Excellence Showcase, AFIT Graduate School of Engineering & Management

An excerpt from the Dean\u27s Message: There is no place like the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT). There is no academic group like AFIT’s Graduate School of Engineering and Management. Although we run an educational institution similar to many other institutions of higher learning, we are different and unique because of our defense-focused graduate-research-based academic programs. Our programs are designed to be relevant and responsive to national defense needs. Our programs are aligned with the prevailing priorities of the US Air Force and the US Department of Defense. Our faculty team has the requisite critical mass of service-tested faculty members. The unique composition of pure civilian faculty, military faculty, and service-retired civilian faculty makes AFIT truly unique, unlike any other academic institution anywhere