Agent-based modeling: a systematic assessment of use cases and requirements for enhancing pharmaceutical research and development productivity.

A crisis continues to brew within the pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) enterprise: productivity continues declining as costs rise, despite ongoing, often dramatic scientific and technical advances. To reverse this trend, we offer various suggestions for both the expansion and broader adoption of modeling and simulation (M&S) methods. We suggest strategies and scenarios intended to enable new M&S use cases that directly engage R&D knowledge generation and build actionable mechanistic insight, thereby opening the door to enhanced productivity. What M&S requirements must be satisfied to access and open the door, and begin reversing the productivity decline? Can current methods and tools fulfill the requirements, or are new methods necessary? We draw on the relevant, recent literature to provide and explore answers. In so doing, we identify essential, key roles for agent-based and other methods. We assemble a list of requirements necessary for M&S to meet the diverse needs distilled from a collection of research, review, and opinion articles. We argue that to realize its full potential, M&S should be actualized within a larger information technology framework--a dynamic knowledge repository--wherein models of various types execute, evolve, and increase in accuracy over time. We offer some details of the issues that must be addressed for such a repository to accrue the capabilities needed to reverse the productivity decline

Dynamic PRA: an Overview of New Algorithms to Generate, Analyze and Visualize Data

State of the art PRA methods, i.e. Dynamic PRA (DPRA) methodologies, largely employ system simulator codes to accurately model system dynamics. Typically, these system simulator codes (e.g., RELAP5 ) are coupled with other codes (e.g., ADAPT, RAVEN that monitor and control the simulation. The latter codes, in particular, introduce both deterministic (e.g., system control logic, operating procedures) and stochastic (e.g., component failures, variable uncertainties) elements into the simulation. A typical DPRA analysis is performed by: 1. Sampling values of a set of parameters from the uncertainty space of interest 2. Simulating the system behavior for that specific set of parameter values 3. Analyzing the set of simulation runs 4. Visualizing the correlations between parameter values and simulation outcome Step 1 is typically performed by randomly sampling from a given distribution (i.e., Monte-Carlo) or selecting such parameter values as inputs from the user (i.e., Dynamic Event Tre

Making hurricane track data accessible

Our interactive tool allows the exploration, validation and presentation of hundreds of years of dynamically simulated storm tracks. The tracks were generated as part of a research project to improve the risk assessment of tropical storm damage by the insurance industry. The main impact of the tool is that exploratory interactive visualisation is now being used by the storm track modellers to (a) validate and improve model outputs, (b) discuss outputs with their peers (c) obtain a better understanding of the formation and development of tropical storms and (d) present examples of the behaviour of storms under different conditions to the insurance industry and others. Insights into tropical storm behaviour have been obtained and these insights are being articulated

The relation between prior knowledge and students' collaborative discovery learning processes

In this study we investigate how prior knowledge influences knowledge development during collaborative discovery learning. Fifteen dyads of students (pre-university education, 15-16 years old) worked on a discovery learning task in the physics field of kinematics. The (face-to-face) communication between students was recorded and the interaction with the environment was logged. Based on students' individual judgments of the truth-value and testability of a series of domain-specific propositions, a detailed description of the knowledge configuration for each dyad was created before they entered the learning environment. Qualitative analyses of two dialogues illustrated that prior knowledge influences the discovery learning processes, and knowledge development in a pair of students. Assessments of student and dyad definitional (domain-specific) knowledge, generic (mathematical and graph) knowledge, and generic (discovery) skills were related to the students' dialogue in different discovery learning processes. Results show that a high level of definitional prior knowledge is positively related to the proportion of communication regarding the interpretation of results. Heterogeneity with respect to generic prior knowledge was positively related to the number of utterances made in the discovery process categories hypotheses generation and experimentation. Results of the qualitative analyses indicated that collaboration between extremely heterogeneous dyads is difficult when the high achiever is not willing to scaffold information and work in the low achiever's zone of proximal development