17,212 research outputs found
LSTM Networks for Data-Aware Remaining Time Prediction of Business Process Instances
Predicting the completion time of business process instances would be a very
helpful aid when managing processes under service level agreement constraints.
The ability to know in advance the trend of running process instances would
allow business managers to react in time, in order to prevent delays or
undesirable situations. However, making such accurate forecasts is not easy:
many factors may influence the required time to complete a process instance. In
this paper, we propose an approach based on deep Recurrent Neural Networks
(specifically LSTMs) that is able to exploit arbitrary information associated
to single events, in order to produce an as-accurate-as-possible prediction of
the completion time of running instances. Experiments on real-world datasets
confirm the quality of our proposal.Comment: Article accepted for publication in 2017 IEEE Symposium on Deep
Learning (IEEE DL'17) @ SSC
Predicting Diffusion Reach Probabilities via Representation Learning on Social Networks
Diffusion reach probability between two nodes on a network is defined as the
probability of a cascade originating from one node reaching to another node. An
infinite number of cascades would enable calculation of true diffusion reach
probabilities between any two nodes. However, there exists only a finite number
of cascades and one usually has access only to a small portion of all available
cascades. In this work, we addressed the problem of estimating diffusion reach
probabilities given only a limited number of cascades and partial information
about underlying network structure. Our proposed strategy employs node
representation learning to generate and feed node embeddings into machine
learning algorithms to create models that predict diffusion reach
probabilities. We provide experimental analysis using synthetically generated
cascades on two real-world social networks. Results show that proposed method
is superior to using values calculated from available cascades when the portion
of cascades is small
Incremental Predictive Process Monitoring: How to Deal with the Variability of Real Environments
A characteristic of existing predictive process monitoring techniques is to
first construct a predictive model based on past process executions, and then
use it to predict the future of new ongoing cases, without the possibility of
updating it with new cases when they complete their execution. This can make
predictive process monitoring too rigid to deal with the variability of
processes working in real environments that continuously evolve and/or exhibit
new variant behaviors over time. As a solution to this problem, we propose the
use of algorithms that allow the incremental construction of the predictive
model. These incremental learning algorithms update the model whenever new
cases become available so that the predictive model evolves over time to fit
the current circumstances. The algorithms have been implemented using different
case encoding strategies and evaluated on a number of real and synthetic
datasets. The results provide a first evidence of the potential of incremental
learning strategies for predicting process monitoring in real environments, and
of the impact of different case encoding strategies in this setting
A Literature Review on Predictive Monitoring of Business Processes
Oleme läbi vaadanud mitmesuguseid ennetava jälgimise meetodeid äriprotsessides. Prognoositavate seirete eesmärk on aidata ettevõtetel oma eesmärke saavutada, aidata neil valida õige ärimudel, prognoosida tulemusi ja aega ning muuta äriprotsessid riskantsemaks. Antud väitekirjaga oleme hoolikalt kogunud ja üksikasjalikult läbi vaadanud selle väitekirja teemal oleva kirjanduse. Kirjandusuuringu tulemustest ja tähelepanekutest lähtuvalt oleme hoolikalt kavandanud ennetava jälgimisraamistiku. Raamistik on juhendiks ettevõtetele ja teadlastele, teadustöötajatele, kes uurivad selles valdkonnas ja ettevõtetele, kes soovivad neid tehnikaid oma valdkonnas rakendada.The goal of predictive monitoring is to help the business achieve their goals, help them take the right business path, predict outcomes, estimate delivery time, and make business processes risk aware. In this thesis, we have carefully collected and reviewed in detail all literature which falls in this process mining category. The objective of the thesis is to design a Predictive Monitoring Framework and classify the different predictive monitoring techniques. The framework acts as a guide for researchers and businesses. Researchers who are investigating in this field and businesses who want to apply these techniques in their respective field
Predictive Monitoring of Business Processes
Modern information systems that support complex business processes generally
maintain significant amounts of process execution data, particularly records of
events corresponding to the execution of activities (event logs). In this
paper, we present an approach to analyze such event logs in order to
predictively monitor business goals during business process execution. At any
point during an execution of a process, the user can define business goals in
the form of linear temporal logic rules. When an activity is being executed,
the framework identifies input data values that are more (or less) likely to
lead to the achievement of each business goal. Unlike reactive compliance
monitoring approaches that detect violations only after they have occurred, our
predictive monitoring approach provides early advice so that users can steer
ongoing process executions towards the achievement of business goals. In other
words, violations are predicted (and potentially prevented) rather than merely
detected. The approach has been implemented in the ProM process mining toolset
and validated on a real-life log pertaining to the treatment of cancer patients
in a large hospital
Predictive Process Monitoring Methods: Which One Suits Me Best?
Predictive process monitoring has recently gained traction in academia and is
maturing also in companies. However, with the growing body of research, it
might be daunting for companies to navigate in this domain in order to find,
provided certain data, what can be predicted and what methods to use. The main
objective of this paper is developing a value-driven framework for classifying
existing work on predictive process monitoring. This objective is achieved by
systematically identifying, categorizing, and analyzing existing approaches for
predictive process monitoring. The review is then used to develop a
value-driven framework that can support organizations to navigate in the
predictive process monitoring field and help them to find value and exploit the
opportunities enabled by these analysis techniques
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