Development and evaluation of land use regression models for black carbon based on bicycle and pedestrian measurements in the urban environment

Land use regression (LUR) modelling is increasingly used in epidemiological studies to predict air pollution exposure. The use of stationary measurements at a limited number of locations to build a LUR model, however, can lead to an overestimation of its predictive abilities. We use opportunistic mobile monitoring to gather data at a high spatial resolution to build LUR models to predict annual average concentrations of black carbon (BC). The models explain a significant part of the variance in BC concentrations. However, the overall predictive performance remains low, due to input uncertainty and lack of predictive variables that can properly capture the complex characteristics of local concentrations. We stress the importance of using an appropriate cross-validation scheme to estimate the predictive performance of the model. By using independent data for the validation and excluding those data also during variable selection in the model building procedure, overly optimistic performance estimates are avoided. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Development of a land use regression model for black carbon using mobile monitoring data and its application to pollution-avoiding routing

Black carbon is often used as an indicator for combustion-related air pollution. In urban environments, on-road black carbon concentrations have a large spatial variability, suggesting that the personal exposure of a cyclist to black carbon can heavily depend on the route that is chosen to reach a destination. In this paper, we describe the development of a cyclist routing procedure that minimizes personal exposure to black carbon. Firstly, a land use regression model for predicting black carbon concentrations in an urban environment is developed using mobile monitoring data, collected by cyclists. The optimal model is selected and validated using a spatially stratified cross-validation scheme. The resulting model is integrated in a dedicated routing procedure that minimizes personal exposure to black carbon during cycling. The best model obtains a coefficient of multiple correlation of R = 0.520. Simulations with the black carbon exposure minimizing routing procedure indicate that the inhaled amount of black carbon is reduced by 1.58% on average as compared to the shortest-path route, with extreme cases where a reduction of up to 13.35% is obtained. Moreover, we observed that the average exposure to black carbon and the exposure to local peak concentrations on a route are competing objectives, and propose a parametrized cost function for the routing problem that allows for a gradual transition from routes that minimize average exposure to routes that minimize peak exposure