Long Term Sales Forecasts of Innovations - An Empirical Study of the Consumer Electronic Market

This paper empirically examines models of replacement sales for six electronic consumer durables – TVs, VCRs, DVD players, Digital Cameras, personal and notebook computers – using data from a large survey of 8077 German households. A new replacement model is developed that fits the empirical "lifetables" better than existing models. This said, fitting to replacement sales data was not substantially improved as these fits are not particularly sensitive to mis-specification of the shape of the underlying distribution. Since many product innovations can be targeted at replacement rather than first purchase buyers – this improved understanding of replacement behaviour helps entrepreneurs identify new opportunities

Differences in forecasting approaches between product firms and product-service systems (PSS)

This paper examines the forecasting implications for Product-Service Systems (PSS) applications in manufacturing firms. The approach taken is to identify the scope of operations for PSS applications by identifying all the activities associated with the total cost of ownership (TCO). The paper then develops a revenue model for manufacturing firms providing PSS applications. The revenue model identifies three generic revenue streams that provide the basis for discussion on the differences in forecasting approaches between product firms and Product-Service Systems (PSS) in manufacturing firms. The forecasting approaches are different due to the nature of customer involvement in the service aspect of PSS applications. This necessitates an understanding of the customer service experience and the factors affecting this such as the service profit chain which links profitability, customer loyalty and service value to employee satisfaction, capability and productivity. The forecasting approaches identified raises forecasting challenges for each of the three generic revenue sources. These challenges vary from the difficulty in obtaining the service user’s viewpoint through to difficulties in determining market acceptance of PSS applications

The Deskilling vs Upskilling Debate: The Role of BLS Projections

[Excerpt] The growing shortage of professionally trained workers and the rising skill premiums will tend to cause supply to increase more rapidly than we have projected. But the gap between the projected growth of demand and supply is huge. Just to maintain the balance between the growth of supply and the growth of occupational demand that prevailed in the 1980s, itself a period of shortage, it will be necessary to increase in the stock of college graduates in the year 2000 by 3.7 million or, put another way, to raise the number of college graduates entering the labor forces by 462,000 or 42 percent between 1992 and the year 2000

Selection-Based Learning: The Coevolution Of Internal And External Selection In High-Velocity Environments

To understand the effects of selection on firm-level learning, this study synthesizes two contrasting views of evolution. Internal selection theorists view managers in multiproduct firms as the primary agents of evolutionary change because they decide whether individual products and technologies are retained or eliminated. In contrast, external selection theorists contend that the environment drives evolution because it determines whether entire firms live or die. Though these theories differ, they describe tightly interwoven processes. In assessing the coevolution of internal and external selection among personal computer manufacturers across a 20-year period, we found that (1) firms learned cumulatively and adaptively from internal and partial external selection, the latter occurring when the environment killed part but not all of a firm; (2) internal and partial external selection coevolved, as each affected the other's future rate and the odds of firm failure; (3) partial external selection had a greater effect on future outcomes than internal selection; and (4) the lessons gleaned from prior selection were reflected in a firm's ability to develop new products, making that an important mediator between past and future selection events.Managemen

Boom and Bust Behavior: On the Persistence of Strategic Decision Biases and their Collective Outcome

This work discusses the boom and bust dynamics which are a common feature of a large range of different industries. especially but not only new born ones. The common managerial behavior underpinning such dynamics is aggressive capacity expansion in the boom period ultimately yielding excess capacity turning the boom into bust. This paper examines the underlying cognitive and behavioral factors responsible for strategic decisions driving boom and busts, nested in the interaction between cognitive biases and capacity adjustment delay, and together tries to identify some tentative heuristics which tend to mitigate them. At the same time, we shall conjecturally conclude, there might be a positive collective side to boom and bust behavio r fostering accumulation of knowledge and physical infrastructure, especially regarding new technological paradigms.Boom and bust; Overconfidence; Capacity adjustment; Adaptive behavior

Forecasting for Marketing

Research on forecasting is extensive and includes many studies that have tested alternative methods in order to determine which ones are most effective. We review this evidence in order to provide guidelines for forecasting for marketing. The coverage includes intentions, Delphi, role playing, conjoint analysis, judgmental bootstrapping, analogies, extrapolation, rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We discuss research about which methods are most appropriate to forecast market size, actions of decision makers, market share, sales, and financial outcomes. In general, there is a need for statistical methods that incorporate the manager's domain knowledge. This includes rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We describe how to choose a forecasting method and provide guidelines for the effective use of forecasts including such procedures as scenarios.forecasting, marketing

Дослідження системи операційного менеджменту організації, на прикладі Apple Computer, Inc

The object of investigation is the process of managing of operating activities of Apple, Inc. The aim of the work is to formulate theoretical approaches and to develop practical recommendations on directions of improvement of operating management at the organization. Research methods cover methods of analysis, synthesis, comparison, detailing, system approach. This master’s research paper analyzes the operational management of Apple, Inc. and provides recommendations for it’s improvement. In particular, the main directions of solving the problems of operational management of the company have been outlined, the proposals on improvement of expansion distribution network and organization of innovative activity of the Apple Inc. have been made.Об'єкт дослідження ‒ процес управління операційною діяльністю компанії Apple, Inc. Мета дослідження - формування теоретичних підходів та розробка практичних рекомендацій щодо напрямів вдосконалення системи операційного менеджменту компанії Apple, Inc. Методи дослідження: методи аналізу, синтезу, порівняння, деталізації, системний підхід. У роботі проведено аналіз операційного менеджменту Apple, Inc., а також викладені рекомендації щодо його вдосконалення. Зокрема, окреслено основні напрями вирішення проблем операційного менеджменту компанії, внесено пропозиції щодо розширення дистриб’юторської мережі, а також вдосконалення організації інноваційної діяльності Apple Inc.Introduction 6 CHAPTER 1 THE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK OF OPERATIONAL MANAGEMENT 8 1.1 Meanings and definition of operational management 8 1.2 Principles and methods of operations management 12 1.3 Factors affecting the Operations activity of Apple Inc. company 21 CHAPTER 2 RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS 31 2.1 Сompany introduction 31 2.2 SWOT - analysis of Apple Inc. Company 46 2.3 Analysis of operation management at Apple Inc 50 CHAPTER 3 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVING OF OPERATIONAL MANAGEMENT AT THE APPLE INC 63 3.1 The main directions of solving operational management problems of the company 63 3.2 Recommendations concerning improvements of Distribution in the organization 65 3.3 Recommendations concerning improvements of innovative activity at the organization 67 CHAPTER 4 SPECIAL PART 73 4.1 Current trends in the field 73 4.2 Company policy in the market 75 CHAPTER 5 RATIONALE FOR RECOMMENDATIONS 77 5.1 Statement for recommendations at Company 77 CHAPTER 6 OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH AND SAFETY AT THE ENTERPRISE 79 6.1 The aim of occupational health 79 6.2 Organization of occupational health and safety at the enterprise 86 CHAPTER 7 ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES 92 7.1 Environmental issues in the field 92 7.2 Еnvironmental factors 94 Conclusions 96 References 98 Appendices 10

Competitiveness of Indian Manufacturing: Finding of the 2001 National Manufacturing Survey

In this paper we present findings of the second national survey on the competitiveness of Indian manufacturing. The paper develops hypotheses on the competitiveness of firms in the manufacturing sector and addresses some key questions on the characteristics of world class firms in India. We analyze the processes and practices that such firms have adopted to become world class. More important, we highlight firm level practices that are preventing Indian firms from becoming globally competitive. The findings point towards three distinct aspects of manufacturing management that define the capabilities of the firm, i.e., strategies related to dynamic control of shop floors, network linkages and innovation. It is found that firms that build distinctive technological and managerial capabilities in these domains are able to compete globally. The paper provides a comparison with manufacturing capabilities of competitors in China and draws lessons for organizing large scale manufacturing. It also provides an assessment of the changes that have happened in manufacturing priorities and strategies in India since our last survey that was conducted in 1997 and highlights the implications of these changes.